US economy expands by 4.3pc in 3Q

Spanish Market: Battery materials, Metals
23/12/25

The US economy grew at the fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, reflecting increases in consumer spending, exports and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment.

Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 4.3pc annual rate in the third quarter, according to the first of three estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That compared with 3.8pc growth in the second quarter and a contraction of 0.6pc in the first quarter.

The US GDP growth beat the expectations of analysts surveyed by Trading Economics, who were forecasting growth of 3.3pc.

Because of the partial federal government shutdown that ended on 12 November, this initial report for the third quarter replaces the release of the advance estimate originally scheduled for 30 October and the second estimate originally scheduled for 26 November.

The report showed that consumer spending continued to fuel the economic expansion, as President Donald Trump retracted or softened some of his announced tariffs. Federal Reserve policymakers expect only one quarter point rate cut next year, as they see GDP growth ending next year at 2.3pc,

Consumer spending rose by 3.5pc in the third quarter, following 2.5pc growth in the second quarter.

Gross private domestic investment fell by an annual 0.3pc following a 13.8pc decline in the second quarter. Residential investment fell by an annual 5.1pc for a second quarter, as construction and purchases remained constrained by high interest rates. Equipment investment rose by an annual 5.4pc, reflecting spending in artificial intelligence.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased by 2.8pc, accelerating from 2.1pc in the second quarter and well off the Fed's long-term target of 2pc.

Exports rose by 8.8pc after a 1.8pc contraction in the prior quarter. Imports fell by 4.7pc after more than a 29pc annual decline in the second quarter. Imports subtract from growth. Net trade added 1.6 percentage points to the headline number.

The "massive" contribution to headline growth from net trade "reflected goods imports continuing to slide, while exports remain resilient," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note. "That partly is due to the very limited retaliation to the tariffs from most trade partners, although the scale of the net trade boost to growth in (the third quarter) is unlikely to be sustained."

Government spending rose by 2.2pc after a 0.1pc decline in the second quarter. Defense spending rose by 5.8pc.

By Bob Willis

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23/12/25

Viewpoint: EU safeguards may shift FeSi, Si demand

London, 23 December (Argus) — New European Commission safeguard measures will support ferro-silicon prices in 2026, but they will also drive increased substitution of the alloy with silicon metal. The commission imposed safeguard measures on manganese alloys, ferro-silicon and ferro-silico-magnesium on 18 November. The safeguard measures comprise tariff-rate quotas and out-of-quota variable duties. Imports in excess of the quota are subject to an out-of-quota variable duty that is the difference between the established price threshold and the actual import price. The commission has imposed an established price threshold of $2,408/t on ferro-silicon. This is more than double the average Argus assessment of $1,371/t ddp NWE as of 12 December. Market gains clarity after a tumultuous 2025 The safeguard investigation that led to the implementation of safeguards drove several extreme spikes in volatility in the ferro-silicon market over the course of 2025. Rare updates on the safeguard process, sudden bursts of speculation and delays led to periods with sharp surges in imports and transactions and then periods with almost no liquidity, as market participants waited for news from the commission. As a result, ferro-silicon prices were volatile across the year, with buyers and sellers alike unsure how to react. Market participants, particularly trading firms, bemoaned their inability to carry out advanced planning. Prices rose in the first quarter, as market participants stocked up on third-country material in expectation of an announcement from the commission by April. When no outcome was announced, prices decreased from March-June. Prices rose sharply in late July and early August because of speculation that the announcement was forthcoming, and then plummeted again for September, October and much of November. Safeguards to drive higher prices, volatility in 2026 After the announcement of the new measures on 18 November, prices jumped by almost $300/t and have since remained at around and slightly above $1,500/t. Most market participants expect prices to stay at current levels or higher in the coming year. But continued volatility is expected. The new quota system, which renews every three months, is expected to result in altered purchasing habits as material enters the European market in bursts after the quotas renew. In this first three months of the safeguard measures, many of the quotas have been utilised more slowly than market participants expected. Some are still not full. But that has been attributed in part to hesitation from importers to try out the new system and in part due to low demand from end-users, which stocked up ahead of 18 November and are not buying in large quantities at present. One steel producer continues to refrain from buying and has been holding off since before the safeguards took effect, a senior executive at the company told Argus . Many market participants expect a more rapid utilisation of the available quotas in the first and second quarters of 2026, as industry players adapt to the new dynamics and consumers work through much of their existing stocks. Significant quantities of ferro-silicon are expected to enter Europe over the days that immediately follow the start of each new period. For consumers and importers, supply chain management has become significantly more complex and requires newly advanced planning. Importers now have more customs exposure, increasing their risk. Silicon substitution may increase Silicon metal can be substituted for ferro-silicon in many steel applications, although the deoxidisation provided by ferro-silicon cannot be completely replicated using silicon metal and iron powder. Silicon metal has not been included in the safeguards, despite a strong desire for it to be subject to the measures from many ferro-alloy producers. Euroalliages, the main ferro-alloys industry association, [sought]( https://metals.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2752028) the inclusion of safeguards in the initial measures. And major European ferro-alloys producer Ferroglobe continues to call for protectionist measures on silicon. But with silicon currently not subject to any such measures, consumers are likely to purchase silicon in place of ferro-silicon when it makes sense to do so on cost. Substitution is already taking place. Multiple large tenders after the implementation of safeguards went to silicon metal rather than ferro-silicon, a ferro-silicon producer told Argus . "As a manufacturer, we see it as an inconvenience that the customer gets used to using alternative products, and we are trying to avoid that by not pushing very high prices," the producer said. The substitution possibility is likely to put a ceiling on ferro-silicon prices below that of the minimum import price in 2026. If out-of-quota material is too expensive, consumers will turn to silicon metal, reducing demand for ferro-silicon and holding prices lower. "Price dynamics will be following silicon metal instead of market supply and demand. It will be silicon metal substitution that will be the price setter, and that is far below the ferro-silicon market," the producer said. But there is ongoing speculation that anti-dumping procedures for silicon metal are being prepared by the commission. If implemented, silicon metal would be more expensive than ferro-silicon from certain origins, which would reduce the substitution effect and support higher ferro-silicon prices. By Maeve Flaherty Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US FeTi to stagnate on oversupply in 2026

23/12/25

Viewpoint: US FeTi to stagnate on oversupply in 2026

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — An expected influx of ferro-titanium to the US is likely to continue to pressure prices in 2026 after imports surged this year, driven largely by weakness in the European steel market. Overseas ferro-titanium producers — facing lackluster demand in Europe — sought to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity increasingly beginning in June, as offtake remained stronger in the US. European steel association Eurofer attributed the weakness in the European steel industry to declines in consumption from automotive and construction sectors because of volatility caused by the US's 15pc tariff on imports of EU-produced cars and heightened global tensions over country-specific tariffs. Ongoing economic uncertainty brought on by the tariffs restrained growth opportunities in manufacturing as trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions rose, according to Eurofer. US imports of ferro-titanium increased during the January-September period by 18.6pc to 1,804 metric tonnes (t) compared with the same year-prior period, according to the most recent data from the US Department of Commerce, which was delayed by the partial US government shutdown. Imports from top suppliers the UK and Canada dipped down by 10.6pc and 7.2pc, respectively, to 669t and 335t. Meanwhile, imports from Latvia surged 148pc to 447t, the largest increase, and metal began to trickle in more competitively from South Korea and Poland. The September data shows an increase of 119pc to 217t in imports from a year earlier. Five-year low prices persist Sell-side sources told Argus they hope the market has found its floor but remained concerned about ongoing weak European demand, should the pattern of offloading supply to the US continue into next year. Argus last assessed North American ferro-titanium prices at $2.15-2.30/lb fob warehouse on 18 December, down by 25pc from the beginning of the year and at a five-year low. Argus last assessed European ferro-titanium prices at $4.30-4.60/kg ($1.95-2.09/lb) on 18 December, down 26.4pc from the beginning of the year and also at a five-year low. US sellers expressed frustration and difficulty in booking spot sales. One trader cited persistent, unsustainably low prices as reasoning for exiting the ferro-titanium market altogether, with few expectations the market would rebound in the near future. Some sellers have opted to sit on their stocks, waiting for demand from cored-wire producers and mills to rebound in the new year, which is leading to a build-up of metal. Because of storage fees and other carrying costs, domestic traders said they would be unable to make a profit at the assessed range, aiming to offer in the range of $2.35-2.45/lb warehouse, but acknowledged no buying interest at those levels. During contract negotiations for 2026, some sellers incorporated price floors into their quotes in anticipation an oversupply of metal could further weigh on prices. Sellers repeatedly tied the health of the US ferro-titanium market to European mill demand, stating there would be no turnaround in US prices until offtake abroad picks up. Eurofer projected apparent steel consumption would recover slowly in 2026 but not before the first quarter. Possible tariff change could halt imports Efforts by US producers could relieve pressure, should Commerce back them. Domestic ferro-alloy producer Galt Alloys on 15 May asked Commerce to add ferro-titanium to the Section 232 national security tariffs on steel imports. The request was denied by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) on 1 August because the agency was already investigating the security implications of the US's ferro-titanium supply chains under a separate Section 232 investigation for processed critical minerals which is due to be finalized by mid-January. BIS is expected to provide a report with policy recommendations which could include tariffs to President Donald Trump once it finishes the investigation. Currently, ferro-titanium has a general duty rate of 3.7pc. By Jenna Baer Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Chile vote may aid foreign Li firms

23/12/25

Viewpoint: Chile vote may aid foreign Li firms

Sao Paulo, 23 December (Argus) — Foreign miners eyeing Chile's world-leading lithium reserves may benefit from right-wing president-elect Jose Antonio Kast's victory on 14 December, while a key approval eases uncertainty about a pending deal between lithium producer SQM and state-owned mining company Codelco. Kast, Chile's new president plans to overhaul the national lithium strategy , which dates from outgoing left-wing president Gabriel Boric's administration. This adds to Kast's pro-market campaign promise to streamline the approval process for mining permits aiming to expedite investments in copper and lithium. If the newly elected president keeps his word, foreign companies could get access to Chile's large lithium reserves more easily, rekindling development of its stagnant lithium industry . Chile's restrictive lithium laws make it difficult for companies to operate independently, as 1979 legislation classifies lithium as a nuclear material, meaning firms can only mine it after obtaining a special operating contract known as a CEOL — which can take years to be approved. Under Boric's lithium strategy, companies seeking to explore lithium resources in the Atacama region must also form a joint venture (JV) with a state-owned Chilean firm, on top of securing the CEOL, further complicating entry for private and foreign investors. Kast has repeatedly said that he would make lithium "concessionable," meaning it would cease to be a nuclear material, which is subject to increased oversight. This would allow interested companies to extract it through a regular concession with a new, streamlined approval process, thus facilitating foreign investment and overruling Boric's CEOL-based lithium strategy. For that to happen, he would need to alter a pair of clauses of the national mining code, rectifying the changes through law. He has the full support of Chile's mining chamber to do so, but any changes would have to go through both congress and the senate, where his allies are a minority. Changing the national lithium strategy might not be a priority itself for Kast, but it can be bundled into his larger project of boosting mining through streamlined permitting and tax cuts, something he wants to achieve in his first 18 months in office. Kast takes the presidential seat on 11 March, but the governmental transition began on 15 December, a day after the election. Chile, the world's second-largest lithium producer, has failed to establish any new lithium extraction projects other than those of Albemarle and SQM, which have dominated the domestic industry since 1984 and 1997, respectively. It has long been Latin America's leading lithium producer, but some forecasts see Argentina catching up by 2030 . Albemarle and SQM will continue to be the only producers in Chile until at least 2032, when Rio Tinto is scheduled to begin production at its Altoandinos project , or in the event that SQM's project changes hands. Chilean exports of lithium carbonate and hydroxide declined nominally in 2025 through November to 235,365 metric tonnes (t), down from 240,237t in the same period in 2024, according to customs data. SQM-Codelco almost clear of risk despite election Although Kast has publicly opposed the SQM-Codelco joint venture, he has said he would honor the agreement if it is legally signed by the time he takes office, a condition that now appears close to being met. Chile's comptroller general's office (CGR) has acknowledged the legality of the contracts that underpin the partnership between Chilean private company SQM and state-owned miner Codelco, which would allow SQM to continue lithium exploration in the Atacama salt flats until 2060. CGR's acknowledgement was the last external approval that the joint venture needed to materialize. Codelco said that it and SQM will now move forward to the deal's closing stages. The deal still could be overturned if the companies fail to close by 11 March, but that risk is slim. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: The coming lithium cycle

23/12/25

Viewpoint: The coming lithium cycle

London, 23 December (Argus) — The global lithium market is geared up to enter a new growth cycle as it navigates away from the choppy waters of 2025 and rides a wave of energy and national security-linked demand. Lithium prices have fallen steadily since the highs reached at the end of 2022, reaching a low in mid-June this year of below $7,500/t cif China for lithium carbonate. Fears of oversupply, uneven electric vehicle (EV) uptake and trade tariffs weakened sentiment over the two-and-a-half year period. But prices have since recovered. The market was at $11,500-11,600/t cif China on 9 December. And a sustained new cycle of price increases is now expected, driven by increased build-out of battery energy storage system (Bess) — which many expect will surpass demand from EVs by the late 2020s. Increased scrutiny of lithium supply chains from eco-conscious buyers and growing engagement in the market by western governments may also create an emphasis on fairer pricing and challenge monopolistic practices. EV adoption drove the last lithium cycle, but this latest cycle will rely on a few new sources of demand. Fast growth in solar power installations, artificial intelligence (AI) data centres, autonomous machines and humanoid robots will all contribute to higher demand for energy storage batteries, alongside continued growth in EV use. Record solar installations across Europe, the US and Asia-Pacific are driving growth in Bess deployments. As grids adapt to a higher penetration of renewable energy sources, storage is becoming essential to balance the intermittency of these sources, and to stabilise frequency. And operators of AI data centres are exploring on-site lithium-ion storage not just for back-up supply but also to manage peak demand and reduce pressure on energy markets. Some hyper-scale facilities now rival small cities in terms of energy use, creating a new, sustained source of industrial demand for lithium. Humanoid and autonomous robots are likely to become a meaningful new source of lithium demand in the next decade. Advances in AI, sensors and actuators are rapidly moving robots out of controlled industrial settings and into logistics, healthcare, defence, construction and domestic services. The global humanoid robotics market could grow into a $5 trillion industry by 2050, reflecting not just hardware sales but software, services and supporting supply chains, investment bank Morgan Stanley said. "Humanoid robots will be far bigger than cars. Ultimately, I think there will be more humanoid robots than people," EV company Tesla chief executive and founder Elon Musk said at the launch of the Tesla Optimus 3 robot this year. Unit numbers are currently small but even conservative forecasts suggest the sector will create material battery demand. A typical humanoid robot is expected to carry a lithium-ion battery pack of roughly 2–5kWh, depending on size, payload and duty cycle — similar to the capacity of a small electric scooter or home storage module. At scale, fleets of robots operating continuously will require frequent charging, replacement packs and stationary back-up systems, creating second-order demand for lithium beyond transport. As automation increasingly becomes a national security priority, humanoid robotics could evolve from a niche application into a structurally important driver of long-term lithium consumption. Price floors and tightening standards Policy, finance and geopolitics are increasingly shaping lithium prices, in addition to demand growth. After a few years of extreme volatility, the industry is reaching a consensus that some form of price stability is needed to build the next wave of lithium supply. This is already reflected in contract structures, government intervention and new efforts to formalise trust and transparency across the supply chain. The growing prevalence of price floors in long-term offtake agreements is one of the clearest signals. Producers, converters and financiers are moving away from pure spot exposure and towards hybrid contracts that include minimum pricing thresholds to underwrite project economics. Long-term agreements increasingly include floor mechanisms designed to protect projects during downturns, with some contracts reportedly triggering these floors during the 2024-25 slump, a major industry participant said. This shift reflects a need to make lithium projects financeable in a world where capital spending is more controlled and geopolitical developments are more intrusive. Governments are also becoming more explicit in their role. The ideas of state-backed price floors or strategic offtake have entered mainstream policy discussions in Australia, with senior officials openly acknowledging that floor prices are one tool among many to support domestic supply chains. The logic is that if lithium is treated as strategic infrastructure — on par with energy grids or defence manufacturing — then markets alone may not be trusted to deliver stable investment signals. At the same time, the industry is attempting to address a deeper credibility issue. The emergence of initiatives such as the International Lithium Association's PCF stamp reflects a push to create a recognised "mark of trust" for lithium products, particularly for buyers facing mounting regulatory and environmental, social and governance scrutiny. Over time, this could contribute to a two-tier market, where verified, low-carbon and traceable lithium commands a structural premium over unverified material. While not a price mechanism in itself, such certification frameworks may indirectly support higher effective price floors by narrowing the pool of acceptable supply for western buyers. These forces suggest a lithium market that is less cyclical and more structurally managed. Trade tensions, national security concerns and industrial policy are encouraging longer contracts, government-backed demand and pricing mechanisms that reduce downside risk. The result may not be a return to the extreme price highs of 2022, but it could see the emergence of a higher and more resilient pricing baseline shaped as much by policy and trust as by supply and demand. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: New mines to raise BHP, Rio iron ore grades

23/12/25

Viewpoint: New mines to raise BHP, Rio iron ore grades

Sydney, 23 December (Argus) — UK-Australian mining firm Rio Tinto expects production from its new Simandou mine in Guinea to lift its overall iron ore grades in the coming years, while the ramp-up of fellow resources firm BHP's Samarco mine in Brazil could produce similar results. Rio Tinto's average realised iron ore grade fell to a decade low of about 60.5pc this year, data from its 2025 Capital Markets Day presentation show. But the company expects the high-grade Simandou mine in Guinea to increase its average product ore grades to around 61.7pc by 2032. The company downgraded the specification of its Pilbara Blend fines ore from 61.6pc Fe to 60.8pc Fe in May. It also increased its sales of lower-grade SP10 ore, which has lower iron and higher impurity levels, over 2024. BHP is in a similar situation to Rio Tinto. The company's typical Australian ore grades have declined over recent years, dropping below 62pc Fe. But increased production at the higher-grade Samarco operations in 2025 likely supported its overall ore grades. BHP has not announced any longer-term ore grade forecasts. But a planned increase in its Samarco production, which it expects to average 67pc Fe in the current financial year, is likely to boost grades. Simandou Rio Tinto opened Simandou in November and shipped its first load of ore in early December. It will increase production at the site to 60mn t/yr — equivalent to about 18pc of its 2024 Western Australian ore output — by 2028. The company expects to sell 5mn-10mn t of high-grade ore from the mine in 2026, before ramping up production to 60mn t/yr by 2028. Simandou will account for about 15pc of Rio Tinto's total output at that stage, with production from the company's increasingly mid-grade Pilbara mines and Canadian plants accounting for the rest. Samarco BHP aims to produce 7mn-7.5mn t of 67pc Fe ore pellets at Samarco during the 2025-2026 financial year to 30 June, before ramping up capacity to 30mn t/yr by 2028. The company's entire equity-basis production growth in July-September came from Samarco. It produced 2.1mn t of ore over the quarter, up from 1.3mn t a year earlier. The Samarco ramp-up should lift BHP's average iron ore grade over the next few years, despite the Pilbara grade declines. Samarco will also diversify BHP's customer base. Close to 90pc of its major Australian iron ore shipments went to China in 2024, estimates from marine tracking platform Kpler show, making it vulnerable to economic and policy changes in the country. But Samarco's 2024 sales were split between the Middle East and Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas. A third of the mine's customers were in the Americas, with another quarter in Africa and the Middle East, according to Samarco's 2024 financial statement. Grade gains BHP and Rio Tinto offset grade declines at their Pilbara mines in 2025 by selling more lump and fewer fines . This has helped the companies maintain stable realised prices despite falling iron ore grades. But this trend is being driven by what are potentially temporary demand-side factors. Chinese steelmakers began to favour lower-grade lump this year because of concerns about sintering restrictions. This is not guaranteed to continue. Instead, Rio Tinto and BHP's overseas mines could provide a more stable path to offsetting grade declines than increasing lump sales, given uncertainty over demand. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US economy expands by 4.3pc in 3Q

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Viewpoint: EU safeguards may shift FeSi, Si demand

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Viewpoint: US FeTi to stagnate on oversupply in 2026

Viewpoint: Chile vote may aid foreign Li firms

Viewpoint: Chile vote may aid foreign Li firms

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