US methanol producers are expected to further expand global market share while simultaneously eroding Trinidad and Tobago's share as the island nation contends with unreliable feedstock availability.
Trinidad and Tobago's mature natural gas fields are in significant decline, and natural gas availability has incrementally shrunk during the last 15 years, according to the Caribbean country's National Gas Company (NGC). Natural gas is a critical feedstock for methanol production, and the decline in natural gas output from the twin island nation has cut methanol capacity since 2009.
US methanol production capacity concurrently expanded with the decline in Trinidad output, and major producers continue to invest in US assets to further expand market share — a trend expected to continue in 2026.
Trinidad and Tobago is a major supplier to US east coast distributors and is anticipated to lose market share to US producers. East coast importers and distributors from January-September took in 221,079 metric tonnes (t) of methanol from Trinidad and Tobago, marking a 20pc decrease from average shipments during the same nine-month period from 2021-24, according to government data collected by Global Trade Tracker (GTT).
Lower imports from Trinidad and Tobago raised the cost of transportation by trucks and railcars on the US east coast and widened the differential to the US Gulf coast. The average price premium east coast truck and railcars commanded over the US Gulf coast has jumped fourfold since 2021, and that widening spread could incentivize domestic suppliers to further displace methanol imports with domestic production.
Additionally, the US could also expand its methanol presence in Europe. US methanol exports to Europe stood at 1.7mn t during the first nine months of this year, up by 39pc over the same period of last year and 200pc higher than in 2021. Meanwhile, exports from Trinidad and Tobago to Europe fell by 41pc to 1mn t from January-September 2025, according to GTT.
Trinidad's natural gas future
Operators in Trinidad and Tobago are investing in upstream projects to increase natural gas production, but these efforts will likely only offer a slight boost and short-term feedstock stability.
One project headed by UK-based BP will deliver about 250mn cf/d to midstream and downstream consumers in Trinidad. Natural gas flows will start in April 2026, the company said earlier this year.
Despite this project, and others under development, natural gas supply will remain tight through 2027, sources said, keeping methanol operations curtailed during the next two years. Long-term growth depends on cross-border natural gas development with Venezuela, which has large reserves but faces geopolitical tension with the US.
While Trinidad's natural gas production is not expected to run dry soon, more is going to higher priced molecules, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) or ammonia, instead of methanol — a trend that has defined the shifting supply balance from Trinidad during the last 15 years.
Natural gas production peaked at 4.3 Bcf/d in 2010, but fell to around 2.5 Bcf/d in 2025, according to NGC. Feedstock natural gas deliveries to Trinidad's methanol assets fell simultaneously with sliding output, with January-to-June deliveries this year down by 11pc to 452mn cf/d compared to the January-June period last year, NGC data showed.
These cuts and the sporadic nature of the islands' natural gas supplies have slashed Trinidad's 8mn t/yr methanol capacity to an estimated 4mn-5mn t/yr of production, just over half of total operational rates.
