Viewpoint: Power demand to bolster RGGI sentiment

Spanish Market: Electricity, Emissions
02/01/26

Projected increases in electricity demand continue to fuel bullish sentiment in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) CO2 allowance market, even with concerns over power affordability and federal threats to state climate policies.

Electricity demand is the main factor driving bullish sentiment in the RGGI market due to more extreme temperatures in the region, state electrification initiatives, and the rapid buildout of power-hungry artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.

But concerns over rising energy costs as well as federal hostility towards climate policy driven by President Donald Trump have cast a bearish shadow over the RGGI market.

Allowance prices climbed in March after the first auction of the year cleared high enough to completely drain the cost-containment reserve (CCR) for 2025.

But the market shed those gains soon afterwards, when Trump issued an executive order on 8 April targeting state and local climate laws that hinder US energy production. Fears that RGGI could be affected seeped into the market, and December 2025 allowances plummeted by 13.8pc to $18.54/short ton (st) on 9 April.

But that legal uncertainty has largely taken a backseat to other concerns. Rising summer power demand quickly moved to the fore starting in May as expectations for higher emissions rose. Subsequent auctions cleared above the CCR trigger price of $17.03/st. The final auction of the year, which was held in December, cleared at a record high of $26.73/st.

More recently, Democratic wins in the New Jersey and Virginia elections have boosted bullish sentiments in the RGGI market, which has been contending with strong compliance demand due to colder temperatures in the northeast US, spurring expectations for increased CO2 emissions. December 2025 allowances rose to a record high of $29.35/st on 1 December, surpassing California Carbon Allowance prices for the first time in RGGI's history.

Driven by power demand

Power demand has always driven the RGGI market, which seeks to lower power plant CO2 emissions. But the extent to which it has overtaken other regulatory and legal factors affecting the market is a relatively new trend.

During the first few years of RGGI, demand and electricity consumption dropped due to economic reasons as well as other factors such as fuel switching, according to Justin Johnson, the RGGI representative for the International Emissions Trading Association.

But in recent years, that trend has reversed. The production of electric vehicles (EV) and the installation of heat pumps rose markedly, while the proliferation of data centers has driven increased projections for electricity demand.

Even recent declines in EV sales, resulting from a rollback in federal incentives, have not been enough to offset bullishness from anticipated data center power demand, which would require power plants to buy additional allowances, Johnson said.

Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger's (D) victory in Virginia will likely allow for the state's reentry into RGGI, bolstering expectations for stronger future compliance demand. Virginia holds the largest data center market in the world, accounting for 35pc of the world's hyperscale data centers, according to the Virginia Economic Development Partnership.

But exactly how that power demand affects allowance prices depends on how Virginia's return takes shape. Spanberger has promised to negotiate a deal that best benefits ratepayers, though she has not yet elaborated on what that would look like.

The main point of negotiation when it rejoins RGGI will likely be Virginia's allowance allocation. While member states have traditionally pushed back against providing allocations for incoming states, Virginia could leverage its growing data center market to receive enough allowances to minimize the effects of its reentry on the RGGI market, Johnson said.

In addition, the cost of power in the state can be minimized depending on the ability of data centers to limit their activities for a given amount of time, which would help lower costs for ratepayers, said Dallas Burtraw, a senior fellow at Resources for the Future, a non-profit.

Don't stop me now

Much of the political rhetoric in the US has shifted towards affordability, with concerns over rising energy costs causing many northeastern states to retreat from ambitious climate initiatives.

As a result, criticism of RGGI has increased.

Over the past year, there have been some efforts to leave RGGI from Republicans in states like Delaware, Maine, and New Jersey.

The most successful of those efforts was in Pennsylvania, where governor Josh Shapiro (D) has sought to balance environmental concerns with the state's role as a major electricity exporter and natural gas producer. In addition, his administration has been dealing with a lawsuit against Pennsylvania's participation in RGGI, and Republican lawmakers have made repeated attempts to repeal the state's CO2 trading regulation. This culminated in Pennsylvania leaving RGGI through a budget deal in November.

Still, most efforts against RGGI this year have been unsuccessful, and the current policy backslide is unlikely to affect the program in any meaningful way going forward.

"I'd like to think that RGGI has been around long enough and is predictable and consistent enough that it won't be a huge impact," Johnson said.

Burtraw added that there is "an increasing recognition that carbon pricing and affordability are not inconsistent and, in fact, can mutually reinforce each other".

In July, member states agreed to set a more-stringent emissions cap that falls to just over 9mn st by 2037. Member states must proceed with their individual rulemakings to implement those changes before 2027.

The agreed to changes "strengthened the market. So, I would take that as a signal [of] RGGI's reaffirmation of its interim and long-run goals," Burtraw said.

In addition, the RGGI allowance market "actually creates degrees of freedom for policymakers because it could be a source of revenue to help them achieve other goals, and one of those goals is affordability", Burtraw said.

By Ida Balakrishna

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02/01/26

Viewpoint: US uses delays against 'green' policies

Washington, 2 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has increasingly used regulatory delays to impede the growth of renewable energy projects, while giving fossil fuel companies years of additional time to comply with existing regulations. The delay tactics have proven to be a potent tool for the administration assault on what Trump calls the "Green New Scam", in some cases without having to complete time-consuming rulemakings that take months to finalize. And even when delays have failed to hold up in court, such as a judge's ruling in September lifting a "stop work" order against a $4bn offshore wind project called Revolution Wind, the administration has been able to effectively revive the order months later by citing "classified" national security concerns. Trump began freezing regulations issued under former president Joe Biden hours into his second term on 20 January 2025, and he has ramped up delays in recent months. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in December delayed methane restrictions for oil and gas producers by 18 months and gave coal-fired power plants an extra five years to meet new wastewater standards. The US Interior Department recently issued guidance and directives providing one-year compliance delays for flaring rules and increased minimum bonds to cover decommissioning costs. The Interior Department throughout 2025 repeatedly targeted offshore wind projects that were under construction with "stop work" orders, some of which were later reversed by courts or rescinded in response to concessions related to pipelines . US interior secretary Doug Burgum subsequently issued an across-the-board pause on all five major offshore wind projects last week, citing national security. And in July, Burgum began requiring his personal approval for 69 different categories of reviews for wind and solar, with delays trickling down even for projects located on private land. "We now really have a question about whether American companies can go to a private piece of property and build something," American Clean Power Association chief executive Jason Grumet said in October. The delay tactics have echoes of a strategy deployed under former president Joe Biden, who imposed a year-long "pause" on issuing new LNG export licenses and repeatedly held up federal oil and gas lease sales. Oil and gas officials say they want permitting to be more durable for all types of energy resources but noted a lack of outcry from the renewable energy sector in the four years when Biden was delaying fossil fuel projects. "I didn't see a lot of clean energy lobbyists out there saying that, you know, we should get the Keystone XL pipeline built, or the Constitution pipeline built, or the Mountain Valley pipeline built," American Petroleum Institute chief executive Mike Sommers said on a podcast hosted by POLITICO in September. Democrats are hoping to extract a political price against Trump for delaying renewable energy. They say the administration's blockade against many wind and solar projects are partly to blame for rising electrical bills. Last week, Senate Democrats threatened to abandon bipartisan negotiations on permitting legislation in retaliation for Burgum's directive blocking construction on offshore wind development. "The illegal attacks on fully permitted renewable energy projects must be reversed if there is to be any chance that permitting talks resume," US senators Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island) and Martin Heinrich (D-New Mexico) said on 22 December. The Trump administration plans to continue delays in coming months. EPA plans to propose in "early 2026" a two-year delay of Biden-era air pollution restrictions for cars and trucks sold starting in model year 2027, EPA's top air official Aaron Szabo wrote in an opinion piece published on 19 December in The Hill. The Biden-era vehicle rule was "infeasible" and "unrealistic", Szabo said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Japanese firms to advance biocarbon projects

02/01/26

Viewpoint: Japanese firms to advance biocarbon projects

Singapore, 2 January (Argus) — Japanese firms are expected to accelerate torrefied or heat-treated biomass, also known as biocarbon, fuel projects from 2026. Torrefied wood pellets have a significantly higher calorific value (CV) compared with typical wood pellets, although the higher CV comes at a higher price. Japanese energy company Idemitsu is set to carry out full-scale shipments of black pellets in 2026, which are produced at its factory in Vietnam, according to the company. The factory started commercial operations in October 2024 and has 120,000 t/yr of production capacity. The torrefied biomass fuel will be delivered to consumers including Japanese utilities, which are planning to begin coal and black pellet co-firing generation at thermal power plants. Idemitsu has provided black pellet test products to around 20 customers in Japan so far, including power producers and other industries. It is possible to co-fire 35pc of black pellets with coal, the company said. It aims to expand its production capacity and is considering constructing new factories in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the US, in addition to Vietnam. Idemitsu's final target is 3mn t/yr of total production capacity in the 2030s, using locally secured biomass feedstocks. Idemitsu's current production capacity of black pellets is insufficient to satisfy potential demand in the future, the company said. A Japanese utility is planning 20pc of black pellet co-firing with coal at its 600MW unit, and another utility is considering 10pc co-firing at its 700MW unit. These two co-firing projects will likely drive several hundreds of thousands of tons of black pellet demand, according to market participants. Black pellets have a higher CV than normal wood pellets. They have better water resistance and grindability, and can be handled in a similar way to coal without major facility renovations. But black pellets are usually more expensive than coal and typical biomass fuels, at around double the price of wood pellets or even higher, market participants said. Other projects A joint venture project led by construction firm Kumagai Gumi and trading house Shinko Shoji is also planning to start producing black bark pellets at a factory, which they are constructing in western Japan's Ehime prefecture, in the fourth quarter of 2026. The factory is designed to have 30,000 t/yr of production capacity, using domestically secured bark materials. Black bark pellets have a CV of 5,000-6,000 kcal/kg, which is close to coal. The material will be used mainly for coal and biomass co-firing power generation in Japan. Trial products from the project have already been tested at Japanese thermal power plants. The companies plan to build more black bark pellet factories in Japan, each with a production capacity of 30,000 t/yr. New factories in southeast Asia are also on the cards. The firms have already developed test products made from Vietnamese acacia and conducted trial co-firing combustion with coal at a Japanese thermal power plant, they said. Steel and metals industry usage Japanese cast iron firm Aisin Takaoka started producing biocoke from palm kernel shells (PKS) at its factory in Indonesia in December 2025, and will start using the heat-treated biomass fuel in its cast iron melting furnace to replace coking coal in the first quarter of 2026. The factory, which Aisin Takaoka operates with Indonesian palm oil firm Triputra in the country's West Kalimantan state, currently has 15,000 t/yr of production capacity. The firm aims to increase the capacity of this biocoke project to 90,000 t/yr around 2031 with new factories. Aisin Takaoka is considering selling around a half of the products to other companies, including automobile, machinery manufacture, and cast iron firms. The other half will be for its own use. The biocoke has similar CV with coking coal and could replace 100pc of coking coal, the company said. Around 3-4t of PKS is needed to produce 1t of biocoke. Japan's Kobe Steel (Kobelco) is planning to use black pellets in its steelmaking process, in collaboration with cement producer Mitsubishi Ube Cement (MUCC). The companies are expected to set up a joint venture for this project in 2026. MUCC has developed torrefaction technology to produce black pellets. Kobelco aims to use MUCC's black pellets in steelmaking at its blast furnace in the Kakogawa steelworks. MUCC has a production capacity of 60,000 t/yr in its Ube factory. MUCC's black pellets have been co-fired with coal in its thermal power plant since 2019. By Takeshi Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Offshore wind down but not necessarily out

31/12/25

Viewpoint: Offshore wind down but not necessarily out

Houston, 31 December (Argus) — The first year of President Donald Trump's second term brought fresh uncertainty to the US renewable energy development landscape, leaving the long-term outlook for offshore wind uncertain. Trump's return to the White House has upended the environment in which renewable energy developers operate. The industry is losing key tax incentives, getting hit with more red tape and dealing with new regulations that disfavor intermittent generation on public lands . All of this is expected to slow the growth of onshore wind and solar significantly. But the president's policies have posed a unique threat to the nascent US offshore wind industry, which received significant support from former president Joe Biden. Trump, on his first day in office, withdrew all areas on the US outer continental shelf from consideration for offshore wind leasing, and he directed the US Interior Department to consider rescinding or modifying existing leases. He also demanded a "temporary cessation" of permitting pending reviews of alleged deficiencies in the approval process, leaving developers in limbo. In addition, the administration on 22 December ordered five projects off the US east coast to halt construction, citing national security concerns. Two had been the target of similar orders earlier this year, one of which the administration later rescinded while a federal court issued an injunction against the other. The US is also pushing to reconsider approvals granted to multiple projects by the Biden administration. While the loss of tax credits has hurt the industry, the disruptions to the permitting process may be a bigger concern, according to Sam Salustro, senior vice president of market and policy strategy at offshore wind trade group Oceantic Network. There are projects still on track to come on line in 2026-27, but after that, no new capacity is likely before 2029 at the earliest, Salustro said. And while a federal district court this month struck down Trump's indeterminate halt of new project reviews, the administration retains authority over that process, making a shift in the current landscape unlikely. "Getting things restarted is a whole other story," said Daniel Kammen, Bloomberg distinguished professor of energy and climate justice at Johns Hopkins University. "Equinor is not going to move heavy equipment from Oslo to the Virginia coast unless they really believe it's going to happen." The administration is also likely to take additional steps to stonewall offshore wind development, Kammen said, citing " Project 2025 ", a 920-page document written largely by high-ranking officials from Trump's first term. "It says it doesn't matter what the law actually says, the purse makes decisions," Kammen said. "And so the Office of Management and Budget can actually overrule all kinds of things. That's written very clearly. Whether it's legal or not is another story, but it's a strategy." Stoppage time Northeast US states, which have been counting on offshore wind to help meet their clean energy mandates, have begun to reconfigure their policies amid escalating electricity costs. Connecticut earlier this year reduced its 2030 renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements by 11 percentage points. New Jersey regulators are mulling revisions to the state's RPS obligations for 2027-2031, and Massachusetts lawmakers are contemplating lower near-term RPS targets in response to the federal pushback against offshore wind. But the disruptive nature of Trump's policies has raised the question of how easily the industry could reestablish its footing, even under a supportive future administration. If states are delaying those targets in hopes that developers will "catch up", they may be disappointed, according to Tom Harper, a partner at consultant Baringa specializing in power and renewables. The US could be looking at a "10-year deferral" for the offshore wind industry to reestablish itself. "The offshore wind industry isn't going to come back in 2029-30. 'Once bitten, twice shy,' as they say,'" Harper said, citing slowdowns in Europe in response to "mounting costs and political fallout." Kammen expects offshore wind to bounce back, although it may require new companies to enter the market if the European firms on which the industry's supply chain currently depends balk at a return to the US. "I think this is really a delay, not a defeat, but it comes at a very bad time because demand for the infrastructure providers to get this launched is around the world", Kammen said. "Everywhere else is ramping up." By Patrick Zemanek Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: NY carbon market faces continued delays

30/12/25

Viewpoint: NY carbon market faces continued delays

Houston, 30 December (Argus) — New York state's nascent economy-wide carbon market continues to face delays as concerns over affordability as well as potential federal legal threats dampen enthusiasm for enacting climate policies. The idea of a state-specific "cap-and-invest" program began with a scoping plan created in 2022 that recommended an economy-wide carbon market to help New York meet the climate goals outlined in its 2019 climate law. Those goals include achieving a 40pc reduction of economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below 1990 levels by 2030 and an 85pc reduction by 2050. In 2023, the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) released a draft outline of the program, which would cover fuel suppliers, industrial facilities and some waste sources and would have started earlier this year. But since then, the program has been plagued with delays. While regulators late last year punted the program's start to January 2026, governor Kathy Hochul (D) said in January 2025 that the draft rules to implement the carbon market would be ready in "coming months", sparking criticism from environmental groups. In September, DEC deputy commissioner Sanjay Seth said the development of the program is still in the works but offered no other details. As a result, environmental groups in March sued the Hochul administration for failing to release the draft carbon market rules and violating the state's climate law, which mandated the promulgation of new climate regulations by January 2024. This culminated in a state court ordering DEC to release the carbon market rules by February 2026. But that ruling has since been paused after the Hochul administration appealed it in November, effectively further delaying the rollout of the program until the case is resolved. Rising energy costs have resulted in Hochul taking a more pragmatic, "all-of-the-above" approach in carrying out the state's energy and climate policy. This included the revival of a natural gas pipeline in the state earlier this year after negotiations between President Donald Trump and Hochul, which was soon followed by the US lifting a stop work order for the Empire Wind offshore project. Hochul also carved out $1bn in climate funding for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects this year, while keeping "cap-and-invest" on the backburner. DEC declined to comment on the latest timeline for implementing the state's carbon market. Slow it down While it appears affordability has taken center stage in New York at the expense of enacting key climate policy, the delays in implementing the state's carbon market might be more emblematic of a slowdown rather than a retreat. "Observing from afar, it seems like it's not that they're stepping back, they may just be taking things more slowly than they would otherwise because of all these issues," said Gautam Jain, a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. Those include a number of things in addition to affordability: concerns over federal legal threats, political considerations ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, as well as figuring out the complex mechanics that involve designing a robust cap-and-invest program. The timing of rolling out such a program is also important to ensure there is no political backlash, Jain said, pointing towards Canada's rollback of its consumer carbon price as an example. In addition, New York is already facing the federal government's ire for its climate superfund law, which the state finalized last year . It requires oil, natural gas and coal companies to pay for the climate-related harms resulting from their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As a result, the Hochul administration could be weary of rolling out any policy that could elicit further legal challenges from the Trump administration, which has already singled out California's cap-and-trade program as a potential target, Jain said. Still, New York has made some progress on climate policy this year, including finalizing a GHG emissions reporting program as well as kickstarting the process to implement a more-stringent CO2 emissions cap for power plants in the state covered under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative — of which New York is the largest emitter. The state's GHG reporting program, which will start collecting data from large emitters in 2027 for the previous year, is the first step in implementing New York's carbon market. But the timeline remains murky. New York's appeal of the court order mandating the release of the cap-and-invest draft rules must still play out over the coming year. In addition, the political environment during the 2026 midterms could determine the state's timeline to move forward with its carbon market, Jain said. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Europe’s battery-driven recovery

30/12/25

Viewpoint: Europe’s battery-driven recovery

London, 30 December (Argus) — It is easy to be pessimistic about Europe's economy. But the continent's next economic recovery may be built on something surprisingly concrete — mass deployment of renewable energy and batteries. Europe's supply of cheap domestic electricity is growing and storage additions are stabilising regional grids. Electrification has stopped being a climate project and started to look like an economic one. Batteries are at the centre of this, turning intermittent renewable power into reliable industrial energy, and enabling a new electrical economy that Europe is well placed to exploit. Electrification in Europe began with cars, because this was where policy, publicity and economics aligned. Road transport is carbon-intensive and US electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Tesla's early innovation proved the market was technologically ready for change. Mandates and subsidies are now doing the hard work in Europe, pushing automakers and consumers through an uncomfortable but decisive transition. The costs are front-loaded. Early EVs were expensive, charging networks lagged and supply chains strained. But Europe has forced the adjustment. Battery costs fell, thanks in no small part to EV growth in Asia. Infrastructure in Europe is now scaling and EVs have moved from a novelty to the default choice in large parts of the market, especially fleet sales. Behaviour is changing. Carmakers, utilities and regulators have begun planning around electricity rather than fuel. "Once electrification reaches scale, the economic benefits begin to reinforce themselves," energy watchdog the IEA executive director Fatih Birol said. That moment has arrived. The mental shift that electricity, not oil, will power Europe's future is largely complete. What follows is less visible but more powerful — compounding gains from lower operating costs, integrated power systems and rising productivity. Battery production scales Europe's early battery innovation phase delivered progress, but not the outcome policy makers had hoped for. Cost curves came down, manufacturing knowledge improved and supply chains localised faster than expected. Yet the collapse of Swedish battery maker Northvolt — once positioned as Europe's answer to Asian battery champions — exposed the limits of trying to build a fully domestic battery industry from scratch. The lesson was not that Europe failed to innovate, but that battery manufacturing is brutally capital-intensive, unforgiving of delays and dominated by incumbents with decades of operational experience. Scale matters more than symbolism and Europe had to learn that the hard way. What followed, however, looks more durable. Rather than retreat, foreign investment moved in to capitalise on the lack of European innovators. Europe's battery supply chain is being built, just not always by European owners. South Korea's LG Energy Solution operates one of the continent's largest battery plants in Poland, China's CATL is commissioning capacity in Germany and Hungary, while South Korean Samsung SDI and Chinese Envision AESC continue to expand across central and western Europe. Europe's battery cell manufacturing capacity is expected to exceed 300 GWh/yr by the end of the decade, according to forecasts compiled by Germany's VDMA and Fraunhofer ISI based on announced project capacity. The ceiling could be higher. Even without full ownership, the economic spillover of jobs, grid resilience and cheaper electrification will accrue locally. Ownership matters less than outcomes at this stage. Factories employ European workers, supply European industry and feed directly into domestic electrification. Batteries do not need to be fully European-made to generate European economic value. Deflationary impact of electrification Europe's duel supply and energy shocks in 2020 and 2022 forced an adjustment. Renewables scaled faster, gas dependence on foreign adversaries fell, and power markets adapted to volatility by hard-wiring flexibility into the system. What is emerging is not a temporary easing in prices but a structural shift towards lower marginal electricity costs and domestic supply, cutting reliance on foreign energy imports over the long term. That shift has direct macro implications. "The expansion of renewables and the decarbonisation of energy supply are likely to be disinflationary over the medium term," European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said. Cheaper, more predictable electricity does not just reduce household bills, it compresses costs across industry, logistics and services at a time when new products and technologies are reaching a deployable scale. Batteries make that environment durable. By absorbing surplus renewable generation and releasing it during peak demand periods, energy storage flattens price volatility and reduces reliance on expensive fossil fuel back-up supplies. This lowers the risk premium embedded in long-term power contracts and brings down the cost of capital for energy-intensive investment. In effect, batteries turn intermittency into stability and stability into lower prices. Europe is now entering a cycle where electricity demand will rise sharply. Data centres, artificial intelligence infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, electrified heat and defence systems are all power-hungry and highly sensitive to price volatility. A battery-backed grid allows that demand to grow without recreating inflationary pressure. The first phase of Europe's energy transition was inflationary — capital-heavy, inefficient and politically fraught. The next phase looks different. As batteries scale alongside renewables, electricity will become a deflationary input and one that quietly improves productivity, planning horizons and competitiveness. If the past decade was about surviving the energy transition, the next may be about benefiting from it. By Thomas Kavanagh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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