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Venezuela raid has little impact on asphalt, so far

  • Spanish Market: Oil products
  • 05/01/26

The weekend's US capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the Americas asphalt market.

Venezuelan asphalt is still sanctioned, and some market participants do not expect a new waiver anytime soon.

Uncertainty around who will run the Venezuelan government also complicates the picture. US president Donald Trump said Washington would temporarily run the country and overhaul its oil sector, but US secretary of state Marco Rubio has since clarified that the US will seek to influence Caracas' policy decisions rather than take over the administration. The US will maintain its "oil blockade" against Venezuela to maintain leverage, Rubio said.

Chevron remains the only company with a US waiver to import Venezuelan crude, which supports asphalt production. Chevron imported about 120,000 b/d of crude from Venezuela to the US in December, based on data from Kpler ship tracking.

A rise in Chevron's US crude imports could be the first step that could potentially change the asphalt market. US Gulf refiners' appetite for heavy crude remains strong, as Pemex has reduced total exports and increased refinery run rates.

Rising Venezuelan crude exports to the US would likely result in more asphalt production, which in turn could pressure US asphalt prices. Gulf asphalt slipped to $315/short ton (st) on 2 January, its lowest level since early February 2021. Prices have been pulled down in recent weeks by declining crude values, a widening light-heavy spread and pressure from rising Colombian asphalt exports.

Colombia has filled the gap left by Venezuela and started to boost production, storage and marketing capacity of asphalt last year. The country exported nearly 550,000st of asphalt in 2025, a 20pc increase from 2024 and nearly double 2022 exports.

Venezuelan exports, meanwhile, rose last year by 62pc to about 489,000st following a sanctions waiver that was revoked in May. Should Venezuelan asphalt return and Colombia continues to boost its production, buyers could see significantly lower prices.

"All roads lead to lower asphalt prices, it's just a matter of when," one market participant said.


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