Viewpoint: Thailand’s LNG demand poised to remain slow

Spanish Market: Natural gas
06/01/26

Thailand's LNG demand has been on a downtrend, and sluggish economic growth in the country is expected to further slow consumption and imports.

Thailand imported around 8.6mn t of LNG over January-October 2025, about 11pc lower compared with the same period in 2024, according to Global Trade Tracker data.

A total of 157,976 GWh of electricity usage was recorded over January-September 2025 compared to 163,395 GWh over January-September 2024, according to data from Thailand's Energy Policy and Planning Office (Eppo). Demand was likely limited by the mild weather in the past year, keeping inventories higher than expected and limiting demand for additional gas-fired power generation.

Thailand's gas demand was previously forecasted to rise through the years up to 2030, according to the country's proposed gas management plan for 2024-37.

But demand is now likely to fall as Thailand's GDP growth is expected to narrow to 2.2pc for 2025, and 1.6pc for 2026, down from a record of 2.5pc for 2024, according to a forecast by the Bank of Thailand.

Natural gas consumption in 2024 was recorded at 4.496bn m³/d, up by 2.2pc from a year earlier, according to Eppo. Electricity generation and use for gas in the petrochemical and other industries rose by 6pc and about 7pc respectively, accounting for most of the increase in line with the expanding economy that year, although consumption of natural gas by industrial sector consumption fell by about 13pc following a slowdown in industrial goods production. This slowdown is likely to continue this year, according to market participants.

Spot trends

Thailand's interest for LNG is mostly still driven by gas-fired power generation in the industrial and electricity sectors, which prioritise stability in prices, some traders said.

Thailand has committed to at least another 3.4mn t of LNG through term contracts for deliveries from 2025 onwards, which may signal a decreased appetite for spot requirements because of the limited potential for a growth in power demand. Thai utility Gulf Energy most recently signed a 10-year term agreement to receive up to 800,000 t/yr of LNG from Italy's Eni. With the latest deal between Gulf Energy and Eni, Thailand may receive up to 9.1mn t/yr of LNG through term deliveries in 2027, up from 6.5mn t/yr in 2025, and a projected 8.3mn t/yr in 2026, according to Argus data.

The number of spot tenders issued by Thai importers has dwindled notably, from an average of about 12-13 tenders per quarter over 2024 to just about under seven per quarter in 2025 as of end-November, according to Argus data (see graph). This is despite new entrants in private-sector imports — B Grimm Power, Gulf Energy and Hin Kong Power.

Southeast Asia

LNG demand in the wider southeast Asia region could also be curtailed as a result of gas turbine shortages and increasing production costs. The Philippines and Vietnam plan to boost their gas-fired power capacity, but significant backlogs in the manufacturing of gas turbines could result in delays.

LNG demand in the region may hence be capped, despite the downward trend in spot LNG prices resulting from a new wave of LNG supplies entering the market in 2026 and after. The 14mn t/yr LNG Canada terminal's 7mn t/yr second train, for example, restarted recently, adding more volumes to the Pacific region.

But some demand from Indonesia could surface. Indonesian state-run utility PLN requires 104 cargoes in 2026, while fellow state-controlled gas distributor PGN may need as many as 19 cargoes over the same period, a senior official from the country's energy and mineral resources ministry told Argus.

By Joey Chan and Naomi Ong

Thailand term supply
Buyer	Seller	MTPA	Start Year	Duration
Gulf Energy	ENI	0.8	2027	10
PTT	Cheniere	1.0	2026	20
PTT	Oman LNG	0.8	2026	9
PTT	Oman	0.3	2025	4
PTT	Brunei LNG	Undisclosed	2025	4
Gulf Energy	ENI	0.5	2025	2
Hin Kong Power	Gunvor	0.5	2024	Undisclosed
PTT	BP	1.0	2017	20
PTT	Petronas	1.2	2017	15
PTT	Shell	1.0	2017	15
PTT	Qatargas III	2.0	2015	19
Argus

Thailand's LNG tenders Number of tenders

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06/01/26

Australia's Gladstone LNG loadings fall in December

Adelaide, 6 January (Argus) — Exports of LNG from Gladstone harbour on Australia's east coast were 15pc lower on the year in December 2025, as the port finished 2025 with shipments down on 2024's record loadings. Exports of 1.88mn t for December were down from the 2.2mn t shipped in December 2024, data from Gladstone Ports (GPC) show. The port shipped 23.46mn t of LNG for 2025, down from 24.04mn t a year earlier , which was a record high for the port. China's LNG receipts from GPC facilities fell by 1mn t in 2025 compared with the previous year, likely due to growth in China's domestic gas production and increased pipeline imports. About 57pc of Gladstone's LNG exports arrived in China in 2025, down from 60pc a year earlier and a record 72pc in 2019. Upstream operator of the 9mn t/yr Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) Origin Energy has reported natural decline at coalbed gas fields, while the Santos-operated 7.8mn t/yr Gladstone LNG reported that LNG output was up by 2pc on the year in January-September 2025 . A mandated reservation scheme policy , which will force all three Gladstone LNG projects to reserve up to 25pc of gas produced for local markets starting in 2027, has yet to be legislated by Canberra, but will not apply to existing contracted gas, the federal government said. By Tom Major Gladstone LNG exports (mn t) China Japan South Korea Malaysia Singapore Total Cargoes Dec '25 1.03 0.12 0.36 0.18 0.05 1.88 29 Nov '25 1.16 0.07 0.4 0.18 0.12 2.07 32 Dec '24 1.36 0.26 0.39 0.12 0.07 2.2 33 2025 13.33 1.71 4.32 2.29 1.22 23.46 364 2024 14.33 1.46 3.97 2.58 0.89 24.04 364 Source: GPC Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Reviving Venezuela’s oil industry no easy feat: Update

05/01/26

Reviving Venezuela’s oil industry no easy feat: Update

Adds output in seventh paragraph. New York, 5 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump's call on US producers to invest billions of dollars to help revive Venezuela's battered oil sector will likely face an uphill struggle. After announcing the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro over the weekend, Trump said US oil firms will be given the job of rebuilding the Latin American nation's long-neglected oil industry, a task that analysts said will prove a tough slog following decades of neglect, underinvestment and sanctions. A meaningful turnaround will demand costly repairs to basic energy infrastructure covering everything from pipelines to power supplies, as well as access to the latest equipment and a skilled labor force that is ready to go. US producers will also need clarity around legal frameworks regarding contracts, as well as sharply higher oil prices to justify the massive investments needed. "This is a multi-year repair and investment cycle, not a quick restart," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "Even US oil majors would need sustained price signals, stable governance and durable sanctions relief before committing meaningful capital." Shares of US oil producers advanced on Monday following the weekend US strikes on Venezuela and ouster of Maduro, in anticipation of a potential windfall, even though that may be years away. Chevron climbed as much as 5pc while ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips also posted gains. Oil services stocks including SLB and Halliburton jumped more than 10pc each. In contrast, shares of Canadian heavy crude producers such as Cenovus Energy tumbled on speculation that an eventual revival of Venezuelan output could pose a direct threat to demand from US Gulf coast refineries. Chevron said it remains focused on the safety and wellbeing of its employees in Venezuela, as well as the integrity of its assets. "We continue to operate uninterrupted and in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations," a company spokesman said. Meanwhile, ConocoPhillips said it is monitoring developments in Venezuela, as well as potential implications for global energy supplies and stability. "It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments," the company said. ExxonMobil did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Venezuela's crude output was 934,000 b/d in November, according to an average of Opec secondary sources including Argus . Production has fallen from more than 3mn b/d in the early 2000s, largely because of the impact of falling investment and US sanctions. Chevron would have a headstart over rivals in responding to Trump's call to help rebuild Venezuela's energy infrastructure, given its role as the only major US producer left in the nation. The second-biggest US producer operates in Venezuela with state-owned PdV under a special waiver from US sanctions and imported about 120,000 b/d of crude from Venezuela to the US in December, according to data from Kpler ship tracking. During a press conference on 3 January, Trump dubbed Venezuela's seizure of assets from US oil companies under former president Hugo Chavez as one of the "largest thefts of property" in US history. Both ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which lost assets in Venezuela in 2007, have since won awards in international tribunals and US courts for the expropriation of their assets. While Venezuela holds the world's biggest proven reserves, with an estimated 303bn bl, its extra-heavy crude is costly and complex to produce, posing an additional hurdle to reviving the nation's oil industry. "It remains unclear which companies would be willing to invest in Venezuela at current oil prices, especially amid ongoing political, security and legal uncertainties," added Giovanni Staunovo, a strategist at UBS. "Additionally, Venezuelan oil is primarily extra-heavy crude — highly viscous and with elevated sulfur and metals content — making it less valuable than sweet light crude." By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry no easy feat

05/01/26

Rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry no easy feat

New York, 5 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump's call on US producers to invest billions of dollars to help revive Venezuela's battered oil sector will likely face an uphill struggle. After announcing the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro over the weekend, Trump said US oil firms will be given the job of rebuilding the Latin American nation's long-neglected oil industry, a task that analysts said will prove a tough slog following decades of neglect, underinvestment and sanctions. A meaningful turnaround will demand costly repairs to basic energy infrastructure covering everything from pipelines to power supplies, as well as access to the latest equipment and a skilled labor force that is ready to go. US producers will also need clarity around legal frameworks regarding contracts, as well as sharply higher oil prices to justify the massive investments needed. "This is a multi-year repair and investment cycle, not a quick restart," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "Even US oil majors would need sustained price signals, stable governance and durable sanctions relief before committing meaningful capital." Shares of US oil producers advanced on Monday following the weekend US strikes on Venezuela and ouster of Maduro, in anticipation of a potential windfall, even though that may be years away. Chevron climbed as much as 5pc while ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips also posted gains. Oil services stocks including SLB and Halliburton jumped more than 10pc each. In contrast, shares of Canadian heavy crude producers such as Cenovus Energy tumbled on speculation that an eventual revival of Venezuelan output could pose a direct threat to demand from US Gulf coast refineries. Chevron said it remains focused on the safety and wellbeing of its employees in Venezuela, as well as the integrity of its assets. "We continue to operate uninterrupted and in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations," a company spokesman said. Meanwhile, ConocoPhillips said it is monitoring developments in Venezuela, as well as potential implications for global energy supplies and stability. "It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments," the company said. ExxonMobil did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Chevron would have a headstart over rivals in responding to Trump's call to help rebuild Venezuela's energy infrastructure, given its role as the only major US producer left in the nation. The second-biggest US producer operates in Venezuela with state-owned PdV under a special waiver from US sanctions and imported about 120,000 b/d of crude from Venezuela to the US in December, according to data from Kpler ship tracking. During a press conference on 3 January, Trump dubbed Venezuela's seizure of assets from US oil companies under former president Hugo Chavez as one of the "largest thefts of property" in US history. Both ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which lost assets in Venezuela in 2007, have since won awards in international tribunals and US courts for the expropriation of their assets. While Venezuela holds the world's biggest proven reserves, its extra-heavy crude is costly and complex to produce, posing an additional hurdle to reviving the nation's oil industry. "It remains unclear which companies would be willing to invest in Venezuela at current oil prices, especially amid ongoing political, security and legal uncertainties," added Giovanni Staunovo, a strategist at UBS. "Additionally, Venezuelan oil is primarily extra-heavy crude — highly viscous and with elevated sulfur and metals content — making it less valuable than sweet light crude." By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hunt for scale to keep US shale deals ticking along

05/01/26

Hunt for scale to keep US shale deals ticking along

New York, 5 January (Argus) — After a slowdown in 2025, US oil and gas deal-making this year will likely be led by more tie-ups between smaller peers looking to build scale to remain viable, and others seeking to capitalise on a resurgence in natural gas demand tied to LNG. The total value of US upstream mergers and acquisitions (M&A) came in at around $65bn last year, according to consultancy Enverus, down from the record-breaking pace seen in the previous two years that saw about $300bn in transactions altogether . Some analysts expect this year will see more combinations between smaller rivals that missed out on the earlier consolidation round, driven by a need to cut costs and bolster inventory in an era of lower crude prices and an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. And natural gas could well attract increasing amounts of interest on the back of rising LNG exports and the vast power needs of data centers fuelling the artificial intelligence boom. M&A activity has reverted to a more typical mix of corporate and asset transactions, after the M&A spree of recent years that was dominated by large-scale acquisitions and centred on the highly sought after Permian basin. Average deal values have also come back to earth with a bump, and potential acquirers have started to look outside the increasingly congested Permian to other basins that were largely overlooked up until now and may offer better value. "We'll probably continue to see some consolidation plays here and there, and then a lot of it will just be continued activity around companies rebalancing or looking at their portfolios and trading assets," consultancy EY-Parthenon partner Bruce On says. One bright spot of late has been private capital showing greater interest in returning to the sector for the first time in a few years. "That's been a welcome trend," On says. "It's not just in the infrastructure space, but they're looking in the upstream space as well." Meanwhile, Enverus expects more deals will be negotiated as public companies that were active in the most recent M&A round seek to fine-tune their portfolios and divest non-core assets. "There seems to be a strong appetite for these assets that we don't see fading anytime soon," Enverus analyst Andrew Dittmar says. "Buyers are also going to continue hunting for opportunities to get long gas, ideally in assets with Gulf coast/LNG exposure, but they are willing to cast a wide net and look at other sources of supply as well." Private party A substantial backlog of private equity commitments that have yet to find an asset will also help prop up the market this year. "2026 looks poised to continue a robust acquisitions and divestitures market with the potential for more corporate consolidation, if at a slower pace than over the last few years," Dittmar says. A new wave of deal-making could be on the cards for small and medium-sized operators as they seek to drive efficiencies and build scale, according to analysts at consultancy Rystad Energy. But these firms may have limited options for achieving their goals as the M&A market gets increasingly competitive. Small and medium-sized firms could snap up assets bigger firms are looking to ditch, but these may lack quality inventory and significant production value, Rystad says. Alternatively, they could go after privately owned companies, according to the consultancy. "Neither this option nor private acquisitions would be able to truly move the needle for smaller buyers," Rystad vice-president of oil and gas M&A Atul Raina says. The answer may be for smaller firms to team up and chase deals within their peer group in so-called mergers of equals. "This is a likely shift in strategy due to the scarcity of opportunities and an ever-evolving menu of acquisition options," Raina says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK offshore faces deeper consolidation

02/01/26

UK offshore faces deeper consolidation

High taxes, tighter margins and a ban on new exploration will continue to drive rationalisation in the sector, writes Jon Mainwaring London, 2 January (Argus) — UK offshore oil and gas operators are bracing for more consolidation in 2026, after the government confirmed its Energy Profits Levy (EPL) will remain in place until March 2030 . The EPL, introduced in 2022, raised the headline tax rate on upstream profits to 78pc from 40pc, reshaping project economics and company strategies. Executives argue the current price environment is "far from windfall" and describe the fiscal regime as punitive. Faced with higher taxes and tighter margins, operators are seeking scale and cost savings through mergers and joint ventures. Shell and Norwegian state-controlled Equinor last month formally launched their new UK offshore joint venture, Adura, after agreeing the deal in 2024. And TotalEnergies agreed to form a UK-focused joint venture with Neo Next , an independent owned by Spain's Repsol and Norwegian private equity firm HitecVision. The new business, Neo Next+, will hold more than 50pc of the Elgin-Franklin gas complex, where TotalEnergies is already operator, as well as interests in several other fields. The deal will leave BP as the only European major still directly operating a UK portfolio itself. Other examples of operators restructuring to manage UK exposure include Italian firm Eni exchanging its UK upstream assets for a stake in North Sea producer Ithaca Energy , and UK independent Harbour Energy merging with Germany's Wintershall Dea in an $11.2bn transaction that added assets offshore Norway and in other regions. Both of those deals closed in 2024. Harbour has continued to diversify its portfolio away from the UK North Sea, last month agreeing to acquire privately held US firm LLOG for $3.2bn, marking its entry into the deepwater US Gulf of Mexico. And on the Mexican side of the maritime border, the company has just become operator of the deepwater Zama field, in which it already held a 32.2pc stake. Harbour has cut hundreds of North Sea offshore jobs since 2024, but it is not giving up on the UK. It agreed a deal last month to increase its interest in the UK's Catcher field to 90pc from 50pc, through a takeover of junior independent Waldorf Production . The deal will also give Harbour a stake in the Kraken field and will add 20,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) to the firm's UK production. Harbour is the UK's largest producer for now, with output of 156,000 boe/d from the UK offshore in January-September last year. But analysts estimate Adura will eventually produce over 200,000 boe/d, and TotalEnergies expects Neo Next+ to reach 250,000 boe/d in 2026. Policy constraints While operators consolidate to help manage fiscal pressure, the outlook for fresh projects is limited by government policy. Greenfield oil and gas developments in the UK will be scarce in 2026 and beyond. The government's ban on new licences remains in force. Its North Sea Future Plan — released on the same day the budget was delivered to parliament in November — allows limited additional production near existing producing fields. Operators are expected to direct capital spending to near-field tie-backs and other work to lift output from existing developments. Two greenfield projects that could see first oil or gas towards the end of this year are Rosebank and Jackdaw. Equinor and Ithaca continue to work on Rosebank. Shell continues to work on Jackdaw. But the government must still decide whether the resubmitted environmental plans meet its required standards. Analysts are increasingly sceptical that Ithaca's 100pc-owned Cambo development, west of Shetland, will proceed at all, with the project yet to reach a final investment decision . After the budget announcement, investment bank Stifel issued a "sell" note on Ithaca's shares. Its valuation now assumes Cambo will not go ahead. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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