Japan utilities keep LNG stocks above average into 2026

Spanish Market: Electricity, Natural gas
07/01/26

Japan's major power utilities maintained higher-than-average LNG inventories through the New Year holidays, even as stock withdrawals picked up.

Utilities held 2.3mn t of LNG stocks on 4 January, down by 5.3pc from a week earlier, according to a weekly survey by the trade and industry ministry Meti. But this was 23pc higher than the 1.87mn t recorded on 5 January 2025 and 12.2pc above the end-January average of 2.05mn t over 2021-25.

Japanese power demand fell by 15pc on the week to an average of 90GW across 29 December-4 January, as power consumption particularly in business and industrial sectors declined over the holiday period, which typically runs from 27 December to 4 January this year. Demand in the Chubu region — a manufacturing hub for Japanese auto producer Toyota — plunged by 22pc, the largest drop among the country's 10 service areas, from the previous week to 12GW.

Weaker power demand reduced the country's gas-fired generation by 24pc from a week earlier to an average of 26GW during the week to 4 January. Coal- and oil-fired output also fell by 20pc to 26GW and by 25pc to 373GW, respectively.

The week-on-week decline in LNG stocks, despite lower gas-fired utilization, suggests utilities received less LNG than they consumed during the holidays. Japan discharged only 631,780t of LNG over 29 December-4 January, down from 1.16mn t a week earlier, according to data from oil analytics firm Vortexa.

By Motoko Hasegawa

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08/01/26

Thailand floats lower 2026 green utility tariff rate

Singapore, 8 January (Argus) — Thailand is proposing a lower green premium for electricity users this year under its utility tariff scheme, after renewable energy certificate prices fell last year. The proposed 2026 premium for the Utility Green Tariff 1 (UGT1) scheme is Bt0.0375/kWh ($1.19/MWh), 37pc lower on the year, according to a consultation paper by the country's Energy Regulatory Commission released on 7 January. UGT1 matches end-users' power consumption with hydropower international renewable energy certificates (I-RECs). The premium is applied on top of corporate customers' power bills. The new figure is derived from an average market price of Thai hydropower I-RECs of Bt0.0286/kWh ($0.91/MWh) in January-November 2025, plus administrative fees. Thai hydro I-REC prices fell from an average of $1.32/MWh in January 2025 to $0.55/MWh in December, while solar and wind certificates dropped from $1.81/MWh to $0.55/MWh over the same period, according to Argus assessments. I-RECs for UGT1 are issued from seven hydropower plants owned by state firm Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, commissioned between the 1970s-1990s. These facilities have a combined capacity of 1.14GW and generate over 1.3 TWh/yr. Companies such as food firm Nestle and local shopping centre group Siam Piwat subscribed to UGT1 in 2025, but their contracted volume have not been disclosed. A separate UGT2 programme, drawing I-RECs from solar and wind farms, has not yet been launched. Public consultation on the latest UGT1 price revision closes on 19 January 2026. By Liang Lei Thailand 2025-vintage I-RECs price trend, 2025 $/MWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Italy to update power dispatching rules

07/01/26

Italy to update power dispatching rules

London, 7 January (Argus) — Italy's new regulatory framework for electricity dispatching, known as TIDE, will enter its consolidation phase on 1 February 2026 and run until 2028, as part of a broader effort to ensure system security and align the Italian power market with European standards. A provisional version of TIDE has been in place since the start of 2025, marking the transition from a single national power price (Pun) to zonal pricing. During this transitional phase, electricity is traded at zonal prices, while market operator GME calculates a Pun index as the weighted average of those prices. Market participants receive compensation equal to the difference between the zonal price and the Pun index, effectively maintaining settlement at the Pun level. Italy has also shortened its balancing timeframe to 15 minutes, from hourly intervals, to better integrate variable renewables and harmonise with other European markets. The change took effect for intra-day balancing auctions on 1 January and for the day-ahead market on 1 October. Under TIDE, non-dispatchable renewable sources such as solar and wind will be allowed to participate in the balancing market. The framework also enables the aggregation of different resources, opening participation to small-scale producers and consumers, energy communities and virtually aggregated mixed units. Aggregation can take place at either zonal or nodal level, with the latter referring to smaller transmission points. Renewable plants supported under the Fer-X contracts-for-difference scheme are required to participate in the balancing market. In the first Fer-X auction, Italian energy agency GSE awarded 7.7GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity out of 8GW available, alongside 940MW of wind capacity from the 2.5GW on offer. In the second Fer-X auction, GSE awarded 1.1GW of new solar PV capacity across 88 plants, against 1.6GW available for projects using non-Chinese components. But it is unlikely that many other renewable plants will participate in the balancing market in February. Larger units, typically thermal plants, are likely to remain dominant, meaning no immediate change in dispatching mechanisms , a regulatory affairs expert told Argus . The growing share of renewables in the Italian power mix, and their potential contribution through fast modulation and ancillary services, represents a structural shift that could eventually alter system management, although participants expect the impact to be limited in the short term. "Many plants still face technical constraints that make it difficult to modulate quickly in both directions, as required by more dynamic services," a short-term power trader told Argus . Some participants expect price effects to emerge later in the year. "In the second quarter, we expect effects [on prices] both from the new rules and from growing renewable generation," a trader said. "This combination could lead to generally lower average price levels, and it will be interesting to see whether the occurrence of zero prices increases, which could significantly affect imbalance prices." The second quarter of 2025 was assessed at €105.25-128.15/MWh over December 2024 and the first week of January 2025, while the average Pun index over April-June cleared at €101.65/MWh. The second quarter of 2026 has been trading at €85.80-90.60/MWh since 1 December. Other market experts said the shift to a 15-minute timeframe is more likely to lead to negative prices and widen the spread between midday and evening price periods. The updated framework also introduces two new roles — the balancing service provider (BSP) and the balance responsible party (BRP) — replacing the former dispatch operator. BSPs provide balancing services to grid operator Terna, while BRPs are responsible for ensuring scheduled positions closely match real-time needs. This separation could potentially increase speculative trading, according to a trader. To comply with European regulation, GME will reduce cross-border intra-day trading and nomination deadlines by 30 minutes from 14 January, matching the same schedule used the balancing market. Trading will close 30 minutes before delivery, instead of one hour, while nominations will close 27 minutes before delivery rather than 57 minutes. Some traders expect this alignment with balancing market timelines to concentrate liquidity closer to gate closure, allowing last-minute adjustments in response to forecast uncertainty. Italy rejoined European automatic frequency restoration reserve platform Picasso on 25 November, after leaving it in March 2024 owing to persistent price volatility. The return was possible because of a change in the pricing algorithm designed to avoid spikes. No price anomalies have been recorded since. By Ilenia Reale Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Asia energy storage to accelerate in 2026

07/01/26

Viewpoint: Asia energy storage to accelerate in 2026

Singapore, 7 January (Argus) — Stronger government signals and new industry initiatives to support energy storage systems (ESS) in Asia-Pacific are set to accelerate deployments, creating ripple effects across the battery and lithium market in 2026 as participants eye a new growth engine. ESS deployment remains uneven across Asia-Pacific. China accounts for 88pc of the region's 85GW capacity in 2024, according to industry group Energy Institute. The remainder is concentrated mainly in Australia and South Korea. These countries aim to scale up ESS buildout further. China is targeting 180GW of capacity by 2027, while South Korea plans to reach 2.22GW capacity by 2029. Australia has committed A$500mn ($337.75mn) to expanding local battery manufacturing. Other Asian nations are also picking up pace. Vietnam is targeting up to 16.3GW of ESS by 2030, while Malaysia launched its first 400MW auction this year. Governments are increasingly supporting integrated renewables and battery projects. India and the Philippines awarded such projects this year; Australia is auctioning dispatchable clean power contracts , and Malaysia intends to do this year, according to lawmakers. "In Asia-Pacific, while spot markets exist in some jurisdictions, most markets still lack mature price signals and ancillary service frameworks needed for merchant energy storage investment," nonprofit EnergyTag's Asia Pacific head Shailesh Telang told Argus . ESS deployment is still primarily backed by tenders, subsidies, regulated tariffs, or state-supported procurement, Telang noted. "Over time, market forces can take over, but today policy remains the primary driver," he said. Industry initiatives could further support growth. Regional advocacy group Fessia launched in September and will initially focus on smoothing policy for ESS deployment and bankability in Vietnam and the Philippines. Corporate standard-setter Greenhouse Gas Protocol is also consulting on switching from annual to hourly matching of clean power purchases . The requirement could spur demand for nighttime clean energy — and, in turn, batteries. But the clause is hotly debated and could feature leeway for smaller industries and emerging economies. Meanwhile, the South Korean government's first ESS central contract market auction in 2025 drew intense interest, selecting eight operators out of 51 proposals for 563MW of ESS capacity — largely concentrated on the mainland. A second auction round followed later. South Korea's ESS momentum, driven by its 2029 capacity target, aligns with domestic battery makers' pivot from electric vehicles. Top battery maker LG Energy Solution's (LGES) plans to produce lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) ESS batteries domestically, citing the domestic energy ecosystem, starting with 1GWh. South Korean battery makers' ESS focus will likely intensify as the US EV market slows. Leading firms such as Samsung SDI, LGES, and SK On have all redirected resources to tap the ESS market, particularly in the US, given the data centre and renewable energy build-out. Their once EV-dedicated lines are increasingly repurposed to produce ESS as EV market uncertainty lingers. LFP reality sets in Chinese-dominated LFP chemistry continues to see surging adoption in South Korea , which has firmly stepped into the space and closed multiple LFP ESS supply deals in 2025. But China's dominant position in LFP still appears immovable, thanks partly to the scale of its domestic ESS and EV markets. The Chinese government is on track to more than double its new energy storage capacity to 180GW by the end of 2027 from 2024, it said in an action plan . Strong growth persists among Chinese domestic energy storage firms such as Eve Energy, Cornex, Envision, Great Power Energy and Technology, and Hithium, commented a Chinese battery recycler — though the sector remains overshadowed by industry giant CATL. Anticipation of robust ESS growth in China for 2026 — where Argus heard estimates between 30-100pc across multiple analysts and market participants — reflects varying degrees of optimism. Yet, one consensus stands out among market participants: ESS growth is confirmed and is dominating lithium market discussions near the end of 2025, supporting lithium prices and injecting fresh hope for market expansion. By Joseph Ho and Liang Lei Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Saudi Arabia targets net GHG cuts of 335mn t/yr by 2040

06/01/26

Saudi Arabia targets net GHG cuts of 335mn t/yr by 2040

London, 6 January (Argus) — Saudi Arabia has put forward a target to "reduce, avoid, and remove" greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 335mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) annually over 2030-40, from a 2019 baseline. This will be reached "through a combination of GHG and non-GHG metrics", the country said in its latest nationally determined contribution (NDC) climate plan under the Paris climate agreement. Non-GHG metrics include renewable energy capacity additions, afforestation, land restoration and initiatives to combat desertification, according to the NDC. Under its renewable energy scheme, Saudi Arabia has connected 12.3GW of renewable capacity to the grid, with 10.7GW under construction and 34.5GW under various stages of development, the plan said. Saudi Arabia based this NDC on a scenario of "economic diversification with a robust contribution based on income from hydrocarbon and its derivatives' export revenues", it said. It is the second-biggest oil producer globally, with vast reserves. Saudi Arabia plans to reach its emissions targets by improving energy efficiency and methane management, and by deploying carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS), "clean hydrogen" and "lower carbon aviation fuel", it said. Saudi Arabia is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with "extremely high summer temperatures, very low annual rainfall, predominantly non-arable land, and a heavy reliance on deep confined groundwater resources", the plan noted. Water scarcity is one of the "most pressing concerns", it said. The NDC references Saudi Arabia's status as a developing country under UNFCCC classification, but notes the plan is not contingent on international financial support. Developing countries, as designated by the UNFCCC using lists from 1992 when the body was established, are eligible to receive finance from developed nations to help implement climate plans. The Saudi NDC also took aim at the EU's corporate sustainability due diligence directive (CSDDD) and carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAM). The EU's CBAM entered into force this year, and aims to spur lower-emissions industrial production in non-EU countries. The CSDDD will require companies operating in the EU to adhere to address human rights and environmental impacts across their value chains and operations. "These unilateral trade measures distort investment signals and affect the competitiveness and continuity of mitigation activities", Saudi Arabia said. CBAM has proved contentious at Cop climate summits , and the issue of unilateral trade measures was discussed at Cop 30 in November 2025 . Saudi Arabia's NDC represents more ambition than its previous plan in 2021, which aimed to reduce, avoid or remove GHG emissions of 278mn t/CO2e annually by 2030, from the same baseline of 2019. Countries that are signatories to the Paris agreement are required to submit NDCs every five years, encompassing increased climate ambition each time. The latest round of plans — requested by the UN for submission in February 2025 — were to map out countries' plans to 2035. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Tighter supply may lift PRB coal prices

06/01/26

Viewpoint: Tighter supply may lift PRB coal prices

New York, 6 January (Argus) — Powder River Basin (PRB) coal prices could rise further in 2026 as producers face constraints on boosting output and demand holds steady. The year is starting with some US coal-fired units running longer than anticipated — some by utility choice, others under Department of Energy (DOE) emergency orders aimed at preserving grid reliability. A number of these plants consume PRB coal. TransAlta's Centralia plant in Washington consumed 1.83mn short tons (st) (1.66mn metric tonnes) of PRB coal in January-October 2025, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show. Consumers Energy's JH Campbell plant in Michigan used 3.7mn st over the same period, while Xcel Energy's Comanche unit 2 consumed 877,391st. All three facilities were scheduled to be retired in 2025, but will remain in operation through at least early 2026. However, the response from coal producers to any improvement in demand could be uneven, which could in turn constrict competition and boost prices. The EIA projected in December that western US coal production would decrease to 274mn st in 2026 from an estimated 284mn st in 2025. More than 80pc of western US coal output comes from the PRB. PRB coal production rose in most of 2025 after two years of declines, but annual output may still have been below 2023 levels. EIA estimated mines in Montana and Wyoming, which primarily yield PRB coal, produced 228.2mn st from 1 January through 27 December 2025, up by 5.9pc from the same period in 2024. In comparison, mines in those states produced 266.3mn st in all of 2023. While larger producers in the basin appear optimistic about market conditions for this year, the two biggest PRB producers — Peabody Energy and Core Natural Resources — said in October they had nearly all of their expected 2026 production already under contract to sell. "Are we confident about running at max capacity for the next couple of years?" asked Malcolm Roberts, Peabody's chief commercial officer, on 30 October. "The answer is definitely yes in the PRB." However, "adding on capacity is not something you do for one year; it is going to need customer commitments, and then we'll be looking for the price signals," Peabody chief executive officer Jim Grech said. "We'll see what the market does in terms of price signals to bring those additional tons on. I think that's the best way to look at it." Producers are uncertain that 2025's uptick in coal-fired generation and coal demand as well as delays in power plant retirements will continue beyond the next few years. Some market participants expect smaller producers with higher-cost operations to eventually be forced out of business as major banks continue to pull back on lending to coal mining companies. In the near term, PRB coal producers are diversifying their client portfolios, which may leave some larger utilities unable to secure all the coal they have requested. This supply tightness has already lifted prices for additional tons sought for prompt quarter deliveries. PRB 8,800 Btu/lb coal prompt quarter shipments were assessed at $14.95/st in the week ended 2 January, well above the $13.10/st and $13.95/st in the same weeks of 2025 and 2024, respectively. Additionally, some sellers are adding extra charges — or ‘adders' — to contracts for coal shipments that might be postponed from 2026 to 2027. PRB mine employment and operating hours continued on a downward trend for most of 2025. The basin's mines employed an average 4,226 people in the first nine months of the year, according to the US Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), the fewest employees since January-September 2004. The number of hours each miner worked in January-September 2025 was the lowest since the first nine months of 2005. Average employment at PRB mines in January-September decreased by 6.9pc from the same nine months of 2024, with miners' hours down by 3.7pc in the same period, MSHA data show. The declines in employment and hours worked took place even as coal-fired generation in PRB-consuming regions of the US such as the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) and Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) topped year-earlier levels. EIA projected in December that coal power in MISO, ERCOT and the Southwest Power Pool would slip in 2026. Some of its forecast likely was based on power plant retirements, including the closures of some facilities that have since been postponed or are likely to be postponed. For example, the agency's generator inventory data for November had unit 2 of Xcel Energy's Comanche coal plant in Colorado retiring by the end of 2025, but Colorado regulators in December approved a plan to keep the Comanche unit 2 open for another year. Most US generators that have spoken with Argus anticipate coal burn in 2026 will remain largely in line with 2025 levels, while some project a slight uptick. Even utilities considering coal unit retirements are negotiating additional tons, asking PRB producers to accommodate incremental needs if their units are required to run longer. Rising demand pushed PRB mine productivity for January-September 2025 to a three-year high of 25.9 st/hour, Argus calculations of MSHA data show. More recent information from the US Labor Department and EIA suggest employment and production may have lagged behind year-earlier levels in the final months of 2025. That further sets the PRB up for tight supply in 2026. By Elena Vasilyeva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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