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India posts first coal power output fall in 5 years

  • Spanish Market: Coal
  • 15/01/26

India's coal-fired generation dropped for the first time in five years in 2025, underscoring a structural shift in the country's electricity mix that is reverberating across global coal markets.

The country's coal-power generation declined by 3.4pc on the year to 1,247TWh in 2025, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority of India. This is the first decline since 2020, when coal-power output fell by 5pc to 914.74TWh from a year earlier, and is the second drop in at least half a century, according to think tank CREA. The coal power data does not include lignite-fired generation, which fell by 9.7pc to 31.32TWh in 2025.

The decline comes as power output from hydro, renewable and nuclear energy rose to cater for an increase in power demand in 2025, highlighting the evolution of the country's generation mix as India aims to provide round the clock electricity to all households and industries and fuel its economic growth. The trend also underscores the weakness in coal consumption at utilities, one of the largest consumers of domestic and imported coal, impacting India's overall plans to boost local coal output.

The country, one of the world's largest coal producers and the second-largest importer after China, produced 1.04bn t of coal in 2025, little changed from a year earlier, while supplies to utilities fell by 1.8pc from a year earlier to 816.25mn t, according to data from India's coal ministry. India pegs coal demand to rise to 1.5bn t/yr by 2030, although the drop in coal burn at power plants could prompt a review of the estimates given that non-coal generation capacity has dwarfed that of coal and overall coal supplies from the largest coal producer state-owned Coal India has fallen steadily.

Imports have also declined largely been due to weak demand because the country is currently grappling with high domestic coal inventories. India imported 160.32mn t of thermal coal in 2025, down by 2.2pc from a year earlier, data from analytics firm Kpler show, marking the second straight year of declines. Seaborne coal suppliers are recalibrating their sales strategies because domestic surplus has weighed on demand from China and India, while Indonesia — the world's largest coal exporter — is undertaking policy tweaks to tighten supplies.

"Uncertainty over supply and demand is dominating the market right now," said a Singapore-based coal trader. "No one knows when balance will return."

The weak fundamentals have weighed on the market. Argus assessed the widely traded GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal for Supramax vessels at $44.99/t fob Kalimantan on 24 December 2025 — the last assessment of the year. This was down by 71pc from its all-time high of $154.21/t in October 2021. Prices hit a more than four-year low of $39.40/t in June 2025 and have since hovered in a narrow range that some producers said barely covers costs.

The slowdown in demand is weighing on overall seaborne market dynamics. India is sitting on a huge pile of domestic coal, partly denting the demand fundamentals for the seaborne market. Sellers of Indonesian coal, which accounts for bulk of Indian imports, also said competition is heating up in growth centres of southeast Asia because suppliers from all origins are exploring alternative markets. Indonesian supplies to southeast Asia likely surpassed exports volume to India for the second straight year in 2025, underscoring the changing trade flows.

The restart of an imported coal-fired power plant on India's west coast could support the recovery in India's demand for seaborne coal, another trader said, but overall power sector demand remains subdued and similar utilities that run on seaborne coal are exploring the possibility of raising the share of domestic coal in their blend. Some suppliers are focusing on tenders and enquiries from industrial coal consumers, expecting demand from industries such as cement and steel to continue in line with economic growth.

Generation mix

Generation from renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and smaller hydroelectric projects rose in 2025, and output from large hydropower projects as well as nuclear power plants also increased. The prolonged monsoon period last year supported an increase in hydropower generation and also capped power demand for cooling.

Renewable energy generation rose by 22pc from a year earlier to 270TWh in 2025, CREA said in its latest report, while overall generation from all sources rose by 1pc on the year to 1,844TWh. The pace of growth in overall generation has moderated over the last few years. Generation rose by 11pc and 6pc on the year in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Coal-power has declined but it still accounts for about 70pc of India's generation mix, and India would continue to be a dominant consumer of domestic as well as imported coal, market participants said.

"Coal will remain an indispensable pillar of India's energy security, along with steady advances in its clean energy transition," the coal ministry said. Coal provides reliable baseload power and supports critical industries, and plays a vital role in sustained economic growth, it added.

But the country may not require excess coal-fired capacity if it hits its target of more than doubling the renewable power generation capacity to 500GW by 2030, CREA said.

"India's power-sector challenge is no longer one of capacity adequacy, but of system flexibility," Manoj Kumar, analyst at CREA, said, adding that an increase in generation from non-coal sources could lead to lower utilisation of coal-power plants while also raising the risk of stressing thermal assets.

India's generation mix (TWh)

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