Australian frozen beef prices were mixed this week as Australian processors restarted production and traders looked to maximise the China quota.
Prices for Australian 65CL frozen beef decreased by A$0.18/kg to A$6.66/kg this week, with bids, offers and trades reported between A$6.25-6.86/kg.
Prices for Australian bull 95CL frozen beef rose by A$0.16/kg to A$11.82/kg, with trades ranging from A$11.55-12.08/kg. US demand for Australian and New Zealand lean trim has remained strong at the start of the year and fundamentals for continued strong demand remain positive because the US herd remains at low levels.
Chinese buyers have increased procurement of Australian beef cuts and trim ahead of an expected tariff safeguard to be triggered between May and June. The 55pc tariff rate will apply once imports reach 206,000t for the year. Some packers are calling for the Australian beef industry to act more quickly to allocate a packer-specific quota for beef exports to China as competition for tariff-free volumes increases, but many believe it may be too late for this year.
South Korean demand has started the year strongly and Australia's quota limit could be reached in June or July, which could create tougher business conditions by the end of the year for processors.
Permits to export beef to Indonesia have expired, with Ramadan for 2026 beginning on 18 February. Indonesian buyers are reluctant to make any trades before the release of new permits, which is largely affecting the Australian offal market. Traders do not expect the release of permits until March 2026.
Kill cow prices have started the year strongly and over-the-hook prices were at 800A¢/kg, one southern processor said. It could cut back processing days if high prices continue because the trade is not profitable, the processor said. Processors are hopeful that persistent dry weather and fires in southern states could increase the availability of cattle for slaughter, which would cause prices to fall.
The AUD/US exchange rate rose to around $0.67 on 22 December and has remained high since its November 2025 lows of around $0.65, making Australian beef more expensive and less competitive in global markets. The majority of Australian beef sold into global markets trades in US dollars, meaning the exchange rate movements also affect Asian markets.
