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Latest Market News

BHP's Jansen potash project faces higher costs

  • Spanish Market: Fertilizers
  • 20/01/26

Australian mining firm BHP has completed 75pc of its 4.15mn t/yr Jansen stage 1 MOP project in Canada's Saskatchewan, but costs for the project's stage 1 have increased by $1bn-1.4bn, the firm said today.

The Jansen stage 1 costs have reached $8.4bn, a 14pc increase from the latest estimate provided in July 2025, partly because of inflation and scope changes. The project's first phase is set to reach first production in mid-2027.

The total investment for Jansen stage 1 was $5.7bn in August 2021, when the project was approved, before increasing to $7bn-7.4bn in July 2025. The most recent cost increase is because of construction hours and material quantities that were not included in previous cost estimates, BHP said.

Jansen stage 2 is 14pc complete. The company expects first production from that stage before 30 June 2031. Production from the second stage will be around 4.36mn t/yr, sending the project's total capacity to 8.51mn t/yr. The project has the potential to reach a capacity of 16-17mn t/yr through two further expansions, BHP said.

BHP expects to provide an updated investment estimate for Jansen stage 2 before the end of BHP's financial year on 30 June 2026.

By Susannah Cornford

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20/01/26

Swedish SOP producer Cinis files for bankruptcy

Swedish SOP producer Cinis files for bankruptcy

London, 20 January (Argus) — Swedish water-soluble potassium sulphate (SOP) producer Cinis today filed for bankruptcy after months of financial and production-related problems. Cinis was unable to find a lender willing to provide short-term credit after it announced on 9 January that it was in a "strained financial situation". An administrator will now determine the future of the firm, including a potential takeover. "The board has evaluated various courses of action and worked intensively to find a solution, but unfortunately, we have had the time against us and no agreement has been reached", company chairman Roger Johansson said. Cinis, which produced SOP from pulp-and-paper and car battery industries, began output at its 100,000 t/yr Ornskoldsvik plant in Sweden in May 2024 . It later delivered a first vessel of product to Dutch speciality fertilizer company Van Iperen in September that year. But Cinis has faced persistent challenges since then, including missing production goals . The company in April last year sought finance to boost production and for plant improvements. It then in October ditched its output targets and asked for further funding, before pausing production in November. By Aidan Hall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indian NPK/NP imports hit record in December, stocks up

19/01/26
19/01/26

Indian NPK/NP imports hit record in December, stocks up

London, 19 January (Argus) — Indian imports of NPKs and NP fertilizers in December 2025 hit a 14-year high, helping to drive inventories up by 327,400t, government data show. Imports totalled 577,000t, up from 118,000t in December last year and the highest since November 2011, Argus ' records show. India produced almost 1.12mn t of NPK and NP fertilizers last month, up by nearly 8pc year-on-year. Sales were broadly steady at 1.36mn t, inching down by less than 1pc from December 2024 at just below 1.36mn t. The stockbuild — production plus imports minus sales — was 327,400t for December. Indian total stocks of NPKs and NPs stood at 4.5mn on 1 January, Argus estimates. Cumulative production reached nearly 9.27mn t in the first nine months of the April-March 2025-26 fertilizer year, a 13pc increase from the same period last year. Imports totalled 3.30mn t, up by 122pc, while sales hit 11.74mn t, up from 11.72mn t last year. By Elena Mataro Indian NPK stocks, production, imports and sales Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indian DAP stocks down, despite lower sales

19/01/26
19/01/26

Indian DAP stocks down, despite lower sales

London, 19 January (Argus) — Indian domestic DAP sales fell further than expected in December to 869,000t, according to latest government data. This is likely because farmers focused their attentions on securing nitrogen. Provisional data in early January had estimated offtake last month at 955,000t. But DAP stocks still fell because of lower imports, as DAP importers retreated to the sidelines on seeing the domestic market enter its off-season. Latest government data for domestic DAP production and imports last month are 350,000t and 407,000t, respectively — broadly in line with expectations. This implies a net stock draw (production plus imports minus sales) of 112,000t through December. DAP sales in April-December totalled 7.99mn t, lagging the same period in 2024 by 4pc. But combined DAP and TSP offtake of 8.56mn t in April-December was broadly in line with around 8.61mn t over the same period in 2024. TSP imports slipped to just 34,000t in December, according to Argus lineup data, bringing imports in April-December to 959,000t. Sales of TSP over the same period reached 570,000t, according to the latest government data. This implies that India's TSP inventory grew by 389,000t since April, since India does not produce TSP domestically. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indian urea stocks fall by 2.24mn t in December

19/01/26
19/01/26

Indian urea stocks fall by 2.24mn t in December

Amsterdam, 19 January (Argus) — India's urea inventories dropped by 2.24mn t on the month in December, marking the second-highest month-on-month fall on record after domestic urea sales hit an all-time high of 5.76mn t, government data show. The latest sales data are in line with provisional figures released earlier this month . Higher sales outweighed production of 2.69mn t and imports of 826,000t, resulting in a 2.24mn t reduction in urea stocks — the highest drawdown since July 2020. Stocks ended the year at 5.3mn t, down from 6.3mn t in mid-December and 7.1mn t at the start of the month, according to Argus estimates. India's cumulative urea sales rose by nearly 1.2mn t on the year to 31.2mn t in April-December, as increased crop acreage and a shortage of DAP boosted urea demand. Imports also boomed last year, rising to 8mn t in April-December from 4.3mn t a year earlier, as importers scrambled to secure enough product to meet higher domestic demand. Indian importers collectively issued six tenders across June-November and finalised another earlier this month . Local Indian urea production fell to 22.4mn t in April-December from 23.2mn t a year earlier. By Harry Minihan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions

19/01/26
19/01/26

IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions

London, 19 January (Argus) — The IMF has upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2026 but warned an escalation in trade tensions between the US and Europe is a "major risk." US president Donald Trump on 17 January threatened tariffs on several European countries in a bid to acquire the Danish territory of Greenland. This has raised concerns about a potential trade war between Europe and the US. "If we were to enter a phase in which there would be escalation and tit-for-tat policies… that would certainly have even more of an adverse effect on the economy, both through direct channels, but also through confidence, investment, and potentially through a repricing by [financial] markets," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at the launch of the IMF's World Economic Outlook Update (WEO) today. The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3pc, citing improvements in the US and China, and kept its projection for 2027 unchanged at 3.2pc. It puts 2025 economic growth at 3.3pc, from a previous 3.2pc. IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The IMF has repeatedly upgraded its growth projections since April 2025 and now sees 2025 and 2026 growth higher than when US-led tariff disruptions started in early 2025. The outlook's economic assumptions are current as of 31 December so do not take into account the US' latest tariff threat against European countries. It assumes an effective tariff rate of 18.5pc for US imports from the rest of the world. Any change to this would be a major risk," Gourinchas said. "This is something that could materially impact growth if we have higher levels of tariffs, if we have higher levels of geopolitical tension." The IMF said the US-led investment boom in AI and strong fiscal stimulus in China and Germany was offsetting economic losses associated with higher tariffs. But Gourinchas warned that debt financing in the AI sector was becoming more prevalent, and this could "amplify shocks if returns failed to materialise." He said any correction in AI stock market valuations would have far reaching negative effects or the global economy. The IMF said fiscal discipline is weakening across the globe, particularly in advanced economies. "The risk here [is] that countries will be unable to face the significant challenges ahead in terms of population aging, climate transition, national security or ability to support the economy, should a large shock occur," Gourinchas said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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