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Venezuela moves cautiously to court investors

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil
  • 20/01/26

Venezuela has replaced the controversial head of its investment promotion agency with a US-educated central banker and is eyeing legal reforms to power, oil and mining laws, all while continuing to consolidate power.

US-educated Calixto Ortega will leave his post as head of Venezuela's central bank to lead its international investment agency (CIIP), a post previously held by accused money launderer Alex Saab, freed by the US in 2023 as part of a prisoner swap. The role of the agency is unclear as both Venezuelan law and sanctions from the US and other nations have limited international investment there.

Ortega has worked as vice president of US refiner Citgo — ultimately owned by Venezuela — and lived in Houston, Texas, from 2009-2014, with degrees from Rice and Columbia universities in the US, according to his online profile.

"His designation will allow the continued capture of national and international investment ... in this stage of economic recovery," interim president Delcy Rodriguez said in announcing the appointment Monday.

The move follows Rodriguez's proposal to overhaul laws governing the oil, power and mining sectors to make them more attractive for investors, although few details have been released.

Trump has called for energy investment in Venezuela in the wake of the US seizure of Rodriguez's predecessor Nicolas Maduro, but some oil companies have expressed reservations after decades of nationalization and insecurity.

One pro-Maduro mayor in the coastal city of Lecheria, Anzoategui has offered his region to become the "energy hub" of Venezuela. The state is a top natural gas-producer in Venezuela and hosts part of the massive Jose petrochemical complex, although Lecheria has not traditionally been an energy center.Mayor Manual Ferreira has won his last three elections, but whether the central government will support his proposal is not clear. The proposed lower municipal taxes and other measures are meant to align with Rodriguez's new oil law, Ferreira said.

But rather than outreach with regional governments, Rodriguez so far is aggressively centralizing power in her role, one non-governmental organization said, a dynamic that could undermine other investor assurances. She now holds five key positions in Venezuela: president, vice-president, oil minister, head of the Sebin intelligence service and head of governmental audit agency Sunai, the Venezuelan chapter of Transparency International noted.

By Carlos Camacho

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20/01/26

US aims to contain Greenland fallout on market

US aims to contain Greenland fallout on market

Washington, 20 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is rushing to stave off a potential trade war with Europe and its negative effects on financial markets, as the UK and EU have pushed back on his bid to annex Denmark's Greenland territory. Trump has threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK and seven members of the EU from 1 February, unless they agree to his demand for the US takeover of Greenland. The UK appears to rule out retaliatory measures, but EU leaders will meet on 22 January to agree on the bloc's response. The European parliament is preparing to freeze work on implementing laws for the EU-US trade deal agreed to last summer. US stock and financial markets fell in Tuesday morning sessions. But US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland, urged his EU counterparts to desist from retaliatory measures. He blamed the downward trend in US financial markets on the contagion effect from a sharp fall in Japan's government bond markets on Monday. "I tell everyone, 'sit back, take a deep breath, do not retaliate'", Bessent said at the forum. "The president will be here tomorrow, and he will get his message across." Trump is scheduled to arrive in Davos on Wednesday to address the forum and hold meetings with EU leaders. California governor Gavin Newsom (D), who is also at Davos, on Tuesday urged the European leaders to take a tougher stand against Trump. Newsom said his message to the EU leaders is to "get off your knees and grow a spine," adding that "there's no diplomacy with Donald Trump." The White House has not released any details on how Trump's tariff threat against select EU members will be carried out and whether energy commodities will continue to be exempted from tariffs. So far there are no executive orders from Trump on implementing tariffs starting 1 February. Bessent also defended Trump's designs on Greenland, reiterating the president's argument that the US needs to take over the island's security to prevent Russia and China from attacking it. Bessent asserted that "this has been in the minds of American presidents for more than 150 years". The French foreign ministry on Monday said that the US explanation for needing to annex Greenland is the equivalent of arguing that "if there were a fire someday, firefighters would intervene — so better burn the house now." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US private firms on parade for Trump’s Venezuela push

19/01/26
19/01/26

US private firms on parade for Trump’s Venezuela push

New York, 19 January (Argus) — The privately held US oil producers that were most vocal in their support of President Donald Trump's push to rebuild Venezuela's crippled energy infrastructure at a recent White House meeting may struggle to match their initial enthusiasm with firm action. While smaller operators, including wildcatters, went to great lengths to tell Trump how quickly they could make inroads and help to revive the South American nation's ailing oil sector — citing their nimble approach and record of working in other high-risk countries — the reality on the ground may be different. Privately held firms were the biggest group represented among the two dozen or so executives summoned to the White House for talks with Trump on the future of Venezuela's oil industry. But they are likely to face the same challenges as their larger peers, which had made their reservations all too clear. Those concerns surround the lack of a legal and commercial framework as well as an unstable security situation following the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. With the Maduro regime still otherwise largely intact and no change at state-owned oil company PdV, there is "not going to be any change in business practices down there", the University of Houston energy economist Ed Hirs warns. Firms will need assurances about the safety of their workers and equipment before investing. "They need to have a guarantee that they can get their money out," Hirs says. The same obstacles that inform the go-slow approach being taken by some leading US oil companies — most notably major ExxonMobil, which Trump threatened to sideline from his plans following its warning that Venezuela is at present "uninvestible" — could mitigate against any early action. Fellow major Chevron was the sole US company to offer specific pledges to ramp up production at the meeting, but it has first-mover advantage, having stayed in Venezuela when others left almost 20 years ago. Short-term efforts may be limited to preparations to send in teams to assess current infrastructure. Risky business Still, that did not stop independents from assuring Trump they were keen to help bring back Venezuelan oil production, which has slumped by 70pc since the late 1990s. "We are ready to go to Venezuela," Denver-based Armstrong Oil & Gas founder Bill Armstrong said. "It's prime real estate." The firm controls 8mn offshore acres in the Caribbean, adjacent to Venezuela. Aspect Holdings chairman Alex Cranberg told Trump how his company had been an early mover in Iraqi Kurdistan, despite being warned it was not safe to be there at the time — a bet that had paid off. "Venezuela has a tremendous amount of opportunity," Cranberg said. "What you're doing by putting the US in control of the cash flow coming out of the country is giving companies like ours the confidence to say we can kickstart this production." Hilcorp founder Jeff Hildebrand also said he was fully committed and ready to go into Venezuela. And Bryan Sheffield, managing partner of private equity firm Formentera Partners, said: "There is a lot of shale there — a lot of upside." It was left to Harold Hamm, founder of North Dakota-focused Continental Resources and Trump's long-term oil industry confidant, to inject a note of caution. Venezuela "excites me as an explorationist", Hamm told Trump. "It's a very exciting country, a lot of reserves." But he went on to say that there would be challenges involved, although the industry "knows how to handle that". But until there is clarity around contract sanctity and security, few firms may be willing to actually put boots on the ground. "The devil is in the details and the details have yet to be hammered out," Hirs says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions

19/01/26
19/01/26

IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions

London, 19 January (Argus) — The IMF has upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2026 but warned an escalation in trade tensions between the US and Europe is a "major risk." US president Donald Trump on 17 January threatened tariffs on several European countries in a bid to acquire the Danish territory of Greenland. This has raised concerns about a potential trade war between Europe and the US. "If we were to enter a phase in which there would be escalation and tit-for-tat policies… that would certainly have even more of an adverse effect on the economy, both through direct channels, but also through confidence, investment, and potentially through a repricing by [financial] markets," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at the launch of the IMF's World Economic Outlook Update (WEO) today. The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3pc, citing improvements in the US and China, and kept its projection for 2027 unchanged at 3.2pc. It puts 2025 economic growth at 3.3pc, from a previous 3.2pc. IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The IMF has repeatedly upgraded its growth projections since April 2025 and now sees 2025 and 2026 growth higher than when US-led tariff disruptions started in early 2025. The outlook's economic assumptions are current as of 31 December so do not take into account the US' latest tariff threat against European countries. It assumes an effective tariff rate of 18.5pc for US imports from the rest of the world. Any change to this would be a major risk," Gourinchas said. "This is something that could materially impact growth if we have higher levels of tariffs, if we have higher levels of geopolitical tension." The IMF said the US-led investment boom in AI and strong fiscal stimulus in China and Germany was offsetting economic losses associated with higher tariffs. But Gourinchas warned that debt financing in the AI sector was becoming more prevalent, and this could "amplify shocks if returns failed to materialise." He said any correction in AI stock market valuations would have far reaching negative effects or the global economy. The IMF said fiscal discipline is weakening across the globe, particularly in advanced economies. "The risk here [is] that countries will be unable to face the significant challenges ahead in terms of population aging, climate transition, national security or ability to support the economy, should a large shock occur," Gourinchas said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tackles protection of Venezuelan oil funds

19/01/26
19/01/26

US tackles protection of Venezuelan oil funds

Washington, 19 January (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's administration plans to protect future Venezuelan oil export revenue from seizure by US-based creditors, which hold billions of dollars in claims against Caracas and state-owned PdV. US actions have introduced a new twist in the years-long saga to auction off PdV-owned refiner Citgo as part of a court-mandated sale. An executive order Trump signed on 9 January extends a prohibition on seizing US-based Venezuelan property to the proceeds from sales of Venezuelan crude and other energy commodities. The US administration has said it plans to market Venezuelan energy commodities on behalf of Caracas with proceeds held in bank accounts controlled by the US treasury. US-facilitated sales of Venezuelan crude cargoes had netted $500mn as of 14 January, with additional sales "expected in the coming days and weeks", a US official said. Venezuelan crude cargoes sold under US-facilitated transactions are commanding higher prices than before the forced removal of the country's president, Nicolas Maduro, two weeks ago, US energy secretary Chris Wright says. Trump earlier this month made Wright responsible for managing the sale of 30mn-50mn bl of floating and onshore Venezuelan crude. Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodriguez, whom Trump on 14 January described as a "terrific person" for her co-operation with US demands, would potentially be able to draw on at least some of those proceeds. But the US administration has not explained how it will disperse the funds. Washington since 2019 has blocked Venezuelan funds in the US, including its central bank reserves, nominally to deny access to Maduro. But this has also frustrated US oil producers, bondholders, mining firms and other companies, which have advanced claims against Caracas worth more than $25bn. The most advanced legal cases brought forward by creditors has resulted in a decision by the US District Court for the District of Delaware to sell Citgo for $5.9bn. ConocoPhillips has registered three claims totalling almost $12bn and could see some of them satisfied if Citgo is sold. But a US appeals court, which expects to take up a possible appeal against the Delaware decision and 22 other legal cases brought forward against Caracas, has asked the Trump administration whether the government change in Venezuela could influence the appeals process. The administration has yet to respond. Sympathy for expropriators Trump last year justified the US military build-up that culminated in Maduro's capture on 3 January by citing the need to restore the property of US companies that Venezuela had expropriated. But the Trump administration has asserted authority over Caracas following Maduro's ouster, and Trump now shows far less willingness to help US firms seek restitution. "We're not going to look at what people lost in the past, because that was their fault," Trump told ConocoPhillips chief executive Ryan Lance during a meeting with oil company chiefs at the White House on 9 January. Trump advised Lance to "write off" the $12bn expropriation claim, suggesting that "you'll make it back, one way or another". The possibility of future losses is a factor holding back large US firms, despite Trump's lobbying for them to resume business in Venezuela. "We've had our assets seized there twice," ExxonMobil chief executive Darren Woods told Trump on 9 January. "And so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we've historically seen here and what is currently the state." Trump two days later complained that ExxonMobil was "playing too cute". By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members

17/01/26
17/01/26

Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members

Houston, 17 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK and seven key members of the EU, citing their participation in a military mission in Denmark's Greenland territory, which he is threatening to annex. US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden would be subject to a 10pc tariff from 1 February, rising to a 25pc tariff from 1 June, Trump announced via his social media platform. The tariff would remain in place until "such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland", Trump said. Trump has stepped up discussion of taking over Greenland — a self-governing island under Denmark's control — following a US special forces raid that captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. Denmark and Greenland have rejected US overtures to buy the island, as well as Trump's threat to take over the island by force. Trump is citing Greenland's alleged lack of military protection as the latest justification for his threats. He has denigrated Denmark's commitment to the island's defense against alleged threats from Russia and China. "They currently have two dogsleds as protection, one added recently," Trump said on Saturday. Denmark's foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who traveled to Washington on 14 January to meet Trump administration officials, pushed back against that accusation. "Denmark has already stepped up our own contribution by committing additional funds for military capabilities — not [dogsleds], but ships, drones, fighter jets," Rasmussen said. The countries threatened with new tariffs by Trump joined Denmark to dispatch troops and military experts to Greenland on a mission to assess the island's security needs. Trump on Saturday said that the reconnaissance mission "journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown." EU leaders expressed solidarity with Denmark and called for dialogue, but they omitted mention of possible retaliation if Trump makes good on his threat to impose new tariffs. "Tariffs would undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral," European Council president Antonio Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in response to Trump's post. "Europe will remain united, coordinated, and committed to upholding its sovereignty." "Applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of Nato allies is completely wrong," UK prime minister Keir Starmer said on Saturday. "We will of course be pursuing this directly with the US administration." US imports from the UK already are subject to a 10pc import tariff, and imports from the EU face a 15pc tariff. While Trump is threatening tariffs against seven out of 27 EU members, the bloc collectively negotiates trade matters and sets tariffs. Trump is scheduled to attend the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland on 21-22 January. A bipartisan delegation of 11 US senators and members of the House of Representatives traveled to Copenhagen on 16 January to express support for Denmark's government and push back against Trump's designs on Greenland. "There is no need, or desire, for a costly acquisition or hostile military takeover of Greenland when our Danish and Greenlandic allies are eager to work with us on Arctic security, critical minerals and other priorities under the framework of long-standing treaties," said US senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) and Thom Tills (R-North Carolina), who were part of the congressional delegation. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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