Tariffs, demand boost US steel outlook: Nucor

Spanish Market: Metals
27/01/26

US steelmaker Nucor struck a moderately upbeat tone about this year in its 2025 fourth quarter earnings call based on demand improvements and US tariffs' continued protections against steel imports.

Nucor entered 2026 with historic order backlogs, up nearly 40pc annually from 2025 in the steel mill segment and up 15pc in its steel products segment. The company expected earnings in the first quarter of 2026 to be up from the end of 2025 because of higher volumes and realized prices.

Nucor said demand in the infrastructure, data centers and energy development sectors looked promising to start 2026, alongside US-Mexico border fence construction ordered by President Donald Trump.

Imported steel, meanwhile, declined throughout 2025, which in turn offered US steel mills more domestic market share. Nucor said foreign imports fell from a share of about 25pc of US steel consumption in early 2025 to 16pc in October and 14pc in November. The company expects imports to remain at or below those levels in 2026 as the US steel industry continues to absorb the Section 232 tariffs that set steel imports at 50pc since June of 2025.

Company leadership was bullish that its various investments would help it capture more market share in the US. Several projects in the rebar, steel bar, galvanized steel, data center and energy grid segments were completed in 2025, which Nucor expects to begin contributing sales and earnings within the calendar year.

The company expects to complete its new 3mn short ton (st)/yr sheet mill in West Virginia by the end of 2026. Nucor said it had an opportunity to grow market share in the Midwest and northeast US from that site, especially as it plans to allocate a third of its production at the facility to automotive steel.

Nucor remains cognizant of lingering issues within the US steel industry in its remarks, though. Tariffs are supporting domestic steel consumption, but the company said the renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement set to start in July 2026 needs to address the threat of transshipping overseas steel through Mexico and Canada and steel subsidies provided by the Canadian government.

Nucor also contested the US CORE steel duties in a recent court filing, highlighting that various trade policies are still up for debate within the industry.

The company is optimistic about demand overall but admitted that there was little improvement from interest-rate-sensitive markets like automotive and residential construction. Nucor predicts demand in 2026 will pick up, but only slightly from 2025 because of those lagging sectors.

Nucor reported total shipments of 5.91mn st during the fourth quarter of 2025, up 5pc from the previous year. Sales to internal customers were 22pc of its total sales, up from a 19pc share a year ago.

By Aaron May

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26/01/26

Brazil's Vale mine overflow floods CSN area: Update

Adds in 2nd paragraph comments from Vale on containment and statement from Congonhas on operating permits and fines Sao Paulo, 26 January (Argus) — Brazilian miner Vale confirmed an overflow occurred in a pit at its Fabrica mine, in Ouro Preto, in Minas Gerais state, early on 25 January. A second overflow occurred less than 24 hours later at Vale's Viga mine in the nearby municipality of Congonhas, the company later reported. Both overflows have been contained by Monday evening, Vale said. Vale's slurry reached streams in Congonhas, the city hall said. The water also flooded miner and steelmaker CSN's facilities near the mine, including a loading area, CSN mining division said on 25 January. CSN's mining containment structures are operating normally, the company said, but it has not disclosed whether the incident will affect output. Congonhas authorities will fine the company and temporarily suspend its operating permit in the municipality until it provides clearer information on the damage caused by the incident and commits to faster and more transparent communication in the event of accidents, they said. Notifications about the incidents were sent to authorities only several hours after it occurred, municipal authorities said. Neither incident is related to any dams in the region, all of which remain stable and under continuous monitoring, Vale said. It remains unclear whether these events will impact production. Vale was involved in a major mining disaster in the same region on 25 January 2019. The collapse of the Corrego do Feijao tailings dam in Brumadinho, also in Minas Gerais, killed over 270 people and caused extensive environmental damage. By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tariff threat may put Canadian scrap at risk

26/01/26

US tariff threat may put Canadian scrap at risk

Pittsburgh, 26 January (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's threat to impose 100pc tariffs on imports from Canada may disrupt aluminum and ferrous scrap flows to US consumers who rely on their northern neighbor to supplement domestic feedstock sources. Trump threatened the tariff against all imports from Canada on 24 January if Ottawa concludes a trade deal with Beijing. It is unclear if ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metal compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) would remain exempt from the new tariffs, if they were imposed. The White House did not respond to a request for additional details and has not released an executive order backing Trump's Canada tariff threat, nor has it explained which Canada-China trade deal he was referencing. USMCA-compliant imports were exempt from the 35pc tariff the US government imposed on some Canadian imports on 1 August. Uncertainty will remain a concern for US steel and aluminum makers and Canadian scrap shippers until the new tariff rate officially goes into effect through an executive order. Canada is a major shipper of ferrous and aluminum scrap to the US. The country shipped 396,000t of aluminum scrap to the US from January through October 2025, accounting for nearly 55pc of imports, US Commerce Department data show. The second-largest supplier to the US, Mexico, shipped 223,000t in the same period. Canada also supplied 63pc of the 2.2mn t of ferrous scrap the US imported from January through October. The country was the second-largest shipper of prime scrap to the US after Mexico, with 444,000t during the same period. By Brad MacAulay and Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil’s Vale mine overflow floods CSN area

26/01/26

Brazil’s Vale mine overflow floods CSN area

Sao Paulo, 26 January (Argus) — Brazilian miner Vale confirmed an overflow occurred in a pit at its Fábrica mine in Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, early on 25 January. Tailing water also flooded miner and steelmaker CSN's facilities near the mine, including a loading area, CSN mining division said on 25 January. CSN's mining containment structures are operating normally, the company said, but it has not disclosed whether the incident will affect output. Vale's slurry reached streams in the nearby municipality of Congonhas, the city hall said. A second overflow occurred less than 24 hours later at Vale's Viga mine in Congonhas, the municipality's environmental secretariat said. Vale did not immediately reply to a request for comment on the latest incident. The event is unrelated to any dams in the region, and all dams remain stable and under continuous monitoring, Vale said on Monday. The firm has yet to clarify the impact on output. Vale was involved in a major mining disaster in the region in 2019. The collapse of the Córrego do Feijão tailings dam in Brumadinho, Minas Gerais, killed over 270 people and caused extensive environmental damage. By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump threatens 100pc tariff on Canada

24/01/26

Trump threatens 100pc tariff on Canada

Washington, 24 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 100pc tariff on imports from Canada if Ottawa concludes a trade deal with Beijing. The trade deal, announced during Canadian prime minister Mark Carney's meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping in Beijing on 16 January, involves China cutting combined tariffs on canola imports from Canada to 15pc by 1 March, and Canada allowing 49,000 electric vehicle imports a year from China at the most-favored-nation tariff of 6.1pc. Trump at the time said that "it's a good thing for (Carney) to sign a trade deal," adding that "if you can get a deal with China, you should do that." But Trump has changed his tune, writing on Saturday in a social media post, "If Governor (sic) Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a 'Drop Off Port' for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken." The White House has not released any executive order backing Trump's Canada tariff threat, nor did it immediately explain which Canada-China trade deal he referenced. Trump's latest tariff follows an exchange of barbs that began at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, earlier this week. In a 20 January address to the forum, Carney — without mentioning Trump by name — issued a rebuke of Trump's aggressive global trade and military policy. Carney called on European countries to join Canada in finding alternatives to economic, trade and political alliances centered around Washington. Trump, addressing Davos a day later, shot back at Carney. "Canada lives because of the United States," Trump said. "Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements." Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Friday, Carney replied: "Canada doesn't live because of the United States. Canada thrives because we are Canadian." Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing in April for a meeting with Xi to discuss a possible US-China trade deal. US imports from Canada have been subject to a 35pc tariff since August, with separate duties on imported cars, auto parts, steel and aluminum. In practice, imports from Canada are taxed at the lowest rates among the top US trading partners, because the bulk of trade is exempted from tariffs under the terms of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Energy commodities are also exempted from Trump's existing tariffs. Trump's ability to quickly levy tariffs on Canada and other trading partners is under review at the US Supreme Court, which is expected to issue a ruling soon. Trump's administration has not issued major tariff decisions in recent months, despite Trump's threats to do so. Trump earlier this month threatened to impose a 25pc tariff on US imports from countries doing business with Iran, but no decision has been made. Trump on 17 January threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on imports from the UK and seven EU members, which pushed back against his bid to annex Denmark's Greenland territory. Trump on 21 January withdrew that tariff threat after a slide in US stock and financial markets. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU FeTi prices rebound on offer hikes, scrap squeeze

23/01/26

EU FeTi prices rebound on offer hikes, scrap squeeze

London, 23 January (Argus) — European ferro-titanium prices have increased by 7pc since 8 January, after producers hiked offers in response to a squeeze on scrap availability and some steel mills sought alternative supply sources to Latvian producer LLR-Ecotech in response to its Austrian parent company filing for insolvency. Argus assessed European ferro-titanium prices at $4.65-4.90/kg Ti dp/df Rotterdam on 22 January, up by 7pc since 8 January and the highest since 11 September. The increase was supported by a number of factors but some market participants still question the sustainability of the rise based on broader weak demand fundamentals. The market was in a sustained decline from June 2024 until earlier this month because of depressed demand from steel mills and falling scrap costs. Underlying demand has not materially changed. Overall demand this month has consisted of standard enquiries from trading firms, cored-wire producers and mills for spot first-quarter volumes. One mill also released a large enquiry on a long-term contract basis. For prices to be sustained or rally further, there would need to be a significant increase in real consumption from mills, which in the broader pressured context of Europe's steel industry seems unlikely. Austrian metal trading firm LL-Resources (LLR) filed for insolvency on 5 January because it was not able to utilise credit lines following the discontinuation of a factoring agreement. Its Latvian ferro-titanium producer subsidiary SIA LLR-Ecotech subsequently confirmed that its operations have not been affected by the insolvency. But the announcement still triggered scrap suppliers and ferro-titanium producers to withhold or hike offers, while some steel mills moved to review alternative suppliers. Reviewing and qualifying alternative producers allows steel mills and cored-wire producers to manage their risk in case of non-delivery. But unless LLR-Ecotech fails to deliver and declares force majeure, which has not happened, then those mills cannot renege on existing contracts. This means at least some of the enquiries currently in the market are hypothetical. Producers have adopted varied stances in response. The prevailing approach has been a rise in offers to around $4.75-4.90/kg Ti, at which level Argus has confirmed multiple transactions. One producer has hiked its prices to $5.60/kg Ti, with a load reportedly closed at this level, but market participants broadly dispute the viability of prices above $5/kg Ti at this point. Other sellers are holding back from the spot market and instead prioritising their long-term commitments. Argus assessed 90/6/4 titanium turnings at $1.70-1.90/kg ddp NWE on 22 January, up from $1.55-1.75/kg on 8 January. One ferro-titanium producer said that if turnings cross a $2/kg threshold, scrap sellers will enter the market after a long period of holding inventory in anticipation of higher prices. A separate ferro-titanium producer reported difficulty picking up turnings even at prices over $2/kg. The squeeze on scrap is partly seasonal following inventory drawdowns in the fourth quarter and low generation rates during the Christmas and new year period. A fall in the dollar against the euro since 17 January has also factored into higher scrap costs. Latvian imports of titanium scrap averaged 408 t/month in January-November, custom data show. If LLR-Ecotech stops buying scrap because it does not have sufficient cash flow or credit insurance then this would ease scrap supply, not tighten it. On the other hand, if LLR-Ecotech cannot produce and deliver ferro-titanium that would remove an average of around 477 t/month from the market. But several sources pointed out this would not fundamentally change consumption and would just be a temporary reallocation of demand. This could sustain prices in the near term as other producers may not have spare production to serve additional customers. Most European ferro-titanium producers are not operating at full capacity, but increasing output would require more raw materials. A flurry of further enquiries for titanium turnings and solids would drive up scrap prices further, which ferro-titanium producers would then factor into higher offers to prevent losses down the line. The lag between purchasing, shipping, processing and melting scrap means that units purchased today would not be converted to ferro-titanium until one or two months time. If higher ferro-titanium prices do not hold, producers run the risk of incurring significant losses on higher-priced raw materials. By Samuel Wood European ferro-titanium prices Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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