22/01/26
Potash demand to remain firm in 2026: Fertistream
London, 22 January (Argus) — Global potash demand is set to remain firm this
year, fertilizer trading firm Fertistream's head of global market intelligence,
Milton Sato, told Argus in an interview ahead of the Argus Fertilizer Latino
Americano conference in Miami next week. He also reiterated Fertistream's
ambitions to grow its water-soluble fertilizer business in Latin America. Edited
highlights follow: What were the key drivers for the potash market in 2025? In
2025, MOP seaborne trade expanded by 2mn t to 53mn t, driven by better
affordability compared with other nutrients in terms of grains-to-fertilizer
ratio across the regions, and buoyant southeast Asian palm oil production. For
instance, Indonesia and Malaysia alone increased imports by 1.1mn t to 4.5mn t.
The rapid pace of imports eventually put some downward pressure on standard MOP
(sMOP) prices in the fourth quarter. A supporting factor was the announcement of
production curtailments by Belaruskali and rumours of export limits in Russia.
Brazil saw a drop in MOP imports in the fourth quarter. How do you see this
trend in 2026? Based on the current landscape, Brazilian MOP demand should
remain stable or even slightly higher than the 13.5mn t imported in 2025. Due to
low fourth-quarter imports and strong application demand, MOP stocks were
tracking on the low side entering 2026. At the same time, Brazil has yet to
purchase more than 80pc of the fertilizers needed for the next soy crop.
Finally, the barter ratio for MOP remains relatively better than for other
nutrients. Fertistream recently introduced water-soluble fertilizers to its
portfolio. Is there a place for them in Brazil or the wider Latin American
market? Fertistream has already begun shipping water-soluble fertilizers to the
Latin American market. We have a strong presence in the region and are now
expanding our specialty offerings. The global market share of water-soluble
fertilizers is increasing, and the region has strong potential, driven by
changing weather patterns and growing demand for fertilizers with high purity,
efficiency and precise application. We believe that our participation in this
market is essential to enhancing local farmers' competitiveness by providing
alternative sourcing options. We consider the Latin American market strategic
for our business and have a strong ambition to further increase our footprint in
the region by expanding geographies, product offerings and shipped volumes. What
is the impact of the US dropping sanctions on Belarusian potash? Following up on
the 13 December announcement of the US lifting sanctions on Belarusian MOP, two
days later, the US Treasury rectified this decision by issuing a general licence
for this trade. Assuming [Belarusian marketer] BPC can reinstate payment
channels in the US, expect Belarusian MOP to resume flowing in the next 3-4
months. This is supportive for MOP prices given that BPC will now have the
option to serve a key importer. Conversely, this reduces eventual downward
pressure on prices in other markets. EU sanctions on Belarus remain in place,
and MOP exports through the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda remain blocked. Across
Africa, what are the opportunities for higher-value compounds and unique
formulations over the classic commodity products? Markets for higher-value
compounds and water–soluble products are developing in several countries.
Water-soluble fertilizers are developing in Morocco and South Africa, for
instance. Kenya has specific NPK grades for its key crop — tea. These cases are
limited to a few countries and niches where fertilizer demand is mature. In many
African countries, the application of "classic" commodity products remains a
challenge. Consumption is well below the world average and is struggling to
develop due to a lack of financing, high logistics costs, and the absence of
both subsidy systems and allocation mechanisms. Despite the efforts of the
public and private sectors, consumption remains low. The African continent has
the greatest potential for fertilizer growth, for classic and specialty
products, but that growth is conditional on economic and developmental
realities. In the global potash market, which markets are you most optimistic
about for growth in the next 3-6 months? We see a strong pull across the board,
including the US, Brazil, China, India and southeast Asia, given the relatively
better MOP affordability compared with other nutrients. By Tom Hampson Send
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