Australia LGC oversupply to persist to 2030: Regulator

Spanish Market: Electricity
27/02/26

The supply of large-scale generation certificates (LGCs) is expected to exceed demand until the scheme ends in 2030, Australia's Clean Energy Regulator (CER) said today.

The higher supply reflects strong development of large-scale renewables and is expected to continue exerting downward price pressure, the CER said.

Supply and demand

The CER expects 64-66TWh LGCs to enter the market this year, higher than the 59.7TWh in 2025. Last year's volume was itself higher than the forecast of 54-57TWh. Each LGC represents 1MWh of renewable power generation.

The oversupply in 2025 was because of a higher capacity of renewables facilities accredited to issue LGCs, and stronger power generating conditions, the CER said.

Demand fell behind issuances even as voluntary "non-RET" LGC procurement reached a record 15.3TWh in 2025, driven by 100pc renewable energy commitments. Non-RET redemptions are expected to rise to 16-19TWh this year, boosted by lower LGC prices, the CER said.

RET refers to Australia's Renewable Energy Target scheme, which requires large power retailers and users to procure LGCs. These participants redeemed 35.4TWh of LGCs in 2025, including volumes used to make up for earlier shortfalls.

The annual balance of LGCs remaining rose to nearly 25TWh in mid-February 2026 after accounting for earlier carryovers, a 56pc rise on the year. The only drivers for demand growth until the end of the LGC scheme are non-RET surrenders and RET purchases to make up shortfalls, the CER said. Shortfall for 2025 totalled 1.8TWh from four liable entities.

Spot LGC prices have been on a downtrend for much of 2025, dropping from over A$30/MWh ($21.38/MWh) in January to A$6.25/MWh in December. Spot prices have fallen further to A$3.75-3.90/MWh on 27 February.

Pipeline trends

The CER expects 3.5-4.5GW of large-scale renewables capacity to be approved for LGC issuance this year, in the same range as the 4GW approved last year.

About 1.2GW of capacity was under assessment at the end of 2025, suggesting that "strong approvals" may occur in January-June 2026, the CER said.

Further ahead, the CER expects 6-16GW of renewable generation capacity to reach final investment decision (FID) by the end of 2027, despite a record low of 2.1GW progressing through the stage in 2025.

There is a "substantial" project pipeline under the Capacity Investment Scheme, the CER noted, with 12GW of potential capacity from the first four rounds yet to reach FID. The scheme, which awards long-term revenue contracts to developers, is currently in its eighth iteration.

The Capacity Investment Scheme is now the "primary" incentive for new large-scale generation projects, while lower LGC prices will unlikely affect large-scale renewable energy investment, the CER said.

"Investment decisions are increasingly being made with little consideration to LGC prices, as developers have anticipated lower LGC prices in their business cases," the regulator said, adding that the short runway to the end of the scheme further reduces the impact of LGC revenue.

Meanwhile, a 166kW solar facility in New South Wales state has become the first renewable power facility to register under the voluntary renewable energy guarantee of origin (Rego) scheme at the end of January.

The Rego scheme launched last November and will take over LGCs after 2030.

The scheme will also cover large-scale energy storage facilities, which the CER said it is developing a pipeline dataset for. More details will be published later, the regulator said.

By Liang Lei

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27/02/26

Japan’s Nagoya coal, biomass co-firing plant to close

Tokyo, 27 February (Argus) — Japan's Osaka Gas has decided to decommission its 149MW coal and biomass co-firing power plant around March 2027, the company announced today. Osaka Gas decided to close and demolish the Nagoya plant, which is located in central Japan's Aichi prefecture, because of its aging facilities and its substantial CO2 emissions, the company said. The decision to close the plant is also in line with the country's latest strategic energy plan, which targets a 46pc reduction of greenhouse gases by the 2030-31 fiscal year compared with the 2013-14 fiscal year. The Nagoya plant came on line in 2000, burning only coal at first. It started biomass co-firing in 2014, with around 5pc of wood pellets, to generate up to 900GWh/yr of electricity. The operating company Nakayama Nagoya Kyodo Power is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Osaka Gas. Nakayama Nagoya Kyodo Power currently operates another coal and biomass co-firing power plant — the 110MW Nagoya No.2 unit. The unit, which came on line in 2017, burns around 30pc of wood pellets. This plant will continue commercial operations. Osaka Gas also runs several biomass-fired power plants, including the 75MW Sodegaura, the 75MW Hirohata, the 50MW Gobo, the 50MW Hyuga, and the 50MW Ichihara. By Takeshi Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK parliament to assess climate risks from data centres

27/02/26

UK parliament to assess climate risks from data centres

London, 27 February (Argus) — UK parliament's cross-party Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) has established a new inquiry on the environmental impacts of data centres in the UK, including on how they may affect the country's net zero targets. The committee will look at the "risks and opportunities to the sustainability of data centres in the UK", including how much energy and water data centres are likely to use and whether planning processes will take into account the environmental impact. It has called for evidence on several points, including around "competition for resources and decarbonisation" and the role renewable energy could play to cut emissions from data centres. The committee also raises the possibility of data centres helping to "power and heat local communities and amenities". The EAC will also examine whether the independent advisory Climate Change Committee has taken into account the potential impact of data centres, particularly in its advice on the seventh carbon budget. Carbon budgets are a cap on emissions over a certain period and are legally binding in the UK. The UK's seventh carbon budget covers the years 2038-42. UK energy minister Ed Miliband said that his department's modelling, including for the seventh carbon budget, "accounts for potential emissions from data centres through our projection of overall electricity demand growth", in a letter to the EAC. But he added that "future demand from data centres, and interaction with wider energy system demands, remains inherently uncertain" and said that modelling will test "a range of trajectories". Data centres are "regarded by ministers as being central to UK economic growth", the EAC said. The committee noted that the government designated data centres as critical national infrastructure in September 2024, which it said offers "more legal protections". The UK's national energy system operator expects data centres' electricity consumption to quadruple by 2030. "Will data centres power the UK's economic growth? Perhaps. But what kind of implications will they have for energy and the environment? How will they impact the already tortuous queues for grid connections and the government's plans to bring down energy bills?", EAC chair Toby Perkins said. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Norway oil, gas power use set for sharp rise by 2030

26/02/26

Norway oil, gas power use set for sharp rise by 2030

London, 26 February (Argus) — Power consumption from oil and gas production on Norway's continental shelf (NCS) is expected to increase sharply by 2030 as operators electrify fields and processing sites to reduce emissions, industry body Offshore Norway told Argus , but doing so with power from shore is attracting significant political interest. Operational consumption from fully or partially electrified production reached about 10TWh in 2025, according to Offshore Norway data. Consumption is expected to grow slowly to 2029, averaging 670 GWh/yr in new operational capacity. But from 2030, NCS electrification is forecast to take a substantial leap forward, as significant projects such as the 350MW Hammerfest LNG plant come on line ( see power demand graph ). Consumption will reach as much as 17.9 TWh/yr, with 17.2 TWh/yr operational or holding a grid reservation, according to Offshore Norway data, before tapering as oil and gas production declines towards the end of the next decade ( see hydrocarbon output graphs ). But the 2030 rise is likely to be less dramatic than forecast, with Equinor having decided to cancel electrification works on the Halten Bank and Tampen fields — which were included in Offshore Norway's 2025 modelling — citing project economics late last year. That leaves several electrification projects under construction, but just one in the planning phase, according to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) — Equinor's Grane-Balder project . The major is targeting a 120MW grid connection for the two offshore oil and gas fields. Electrifying away emissions Electrifying oil and gas installations with power from shore is the measure operators consider most important for reducing emissions, Offshore Norway told Argus , and helps the industry meet its legislated 50pc Scope 1 emissions reduction by 2030 from 1990 levels. Norway now has 39 fields partly or wholly operated with power from shore or with final investment decisions (FIDs) to electrify, according to the NOD, up from 16 in 2020. That has reduced the industry's greenhouse gas emissions to about 11mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2024 from 13.6mn t/CO2e in 2005, Offshore Norway said. And if all operator measures are realised, the industry expects emissions to fall by 47pc by 2030 compared with 2005. Shore power is expected to reduce emissions by 3mn t/CO2e by 2030, according to data from Norwegian petroleum industry association KonKraft. Electrifying the entire NCS has never been a goal per se, Offshore Norway said. Instead, "the objective is to eliminate emissions from key hubs on the shelf", to "maintain the competitiveness of the NCS", which faces significant pressure from EU emissions trading system and other carbon costs, the group said. The government agreed, with state secretary Snorre Skjevrak telling Argus "broad electrification…has never been a priority". Instead, the "aim is to reduce emissions from the production of oil and gas". This lowers the "high price on carbon" operators face, which is "much higher than in other oil and gas-producing countries". But given that high price, operators have broadly "assessed which installations" are best suited for "conversion to power to shore", Skjevrak said, which means the "best projects are already in operation or in the execution phase", explaining why there is no new wave of conversion projects coming despite electrification already proving useful in "enabling tie-ins of new discoveries" and "extending the operational lifetime of existing fields", Svjevrak added. Offshore Norway acknowledged that the "remaining electrification projects are dependent on cost efficiency", in line with the government's assessment, but also pointed to the "ongoing debate" about NCS electrification and "who should have access to power". Power politics The Norwegian government approved Equinor's plans to electrify gas processing at the Hammerfest LNG terminal in 2023 , marking "Norway's largest climate initiative", KonKraft said. But late last year the parliamentary energy committee brought forward several motions to halt or delay the plan. Parliamentarians questioned whether a tightening power situation , which is "completely different" from when Norway approved the first projects, is appropriate for further electrification, noting that Offshore Norway's forecast of 18TWh consumption by 2032 is equivalent to 11pc of national output. The initiatives would have ended the electrification process at Hammerfest, blocked further NCS electrification with mainland power and required oil and gas producers to power their assets using offshore wind and gas with carbon capture. The plans, which the government and industry opposed, risked the "stable framework conditions" required to deliver a "balanced energy transition", Equinor chief executive Anders Opedal said . Demanding supply Parliament's focus on offshore electrification and the power balance comes despite project cancellations and complex economics hampering the growth outlook, and more pressing demand sources elsewhere. Norwegian petroleum projects with a grid reservation totalled about 901MW across four bidding areas. Last year, KonKraft forecast an additional 2 TWh/yr in incremental demand from power-from-shore projects approaching an FID, but two of those three projects have since been cancelled. Petroleum industry enquiries for grid connections are small relative to other sectors, Offshore Norway told Argus , with grid operator Statnett data suggesting that the sector is well behind data centres and heavy industry in terms of both firm reservations and projects in the queue ( see grid queue graph ). And Statnett's future scenarios forecast that the sector's power consumption will fall to the fourth largest by 2040, and be overtaken by data centres and hydrogen production by 2050 . By Daniel Craig NCS forecast power demand, 2026-40 TWh NCS production historic vs forecast mn m³ oil equivalent/yr NCS production forecast by resource category mn m³ oil equivalent/yr Norwegian grid requests by type, technology GW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Rubio calls for Caribbean energy ties despite tensions

25/02/26

Rubio calls for Caribbean energy ties despite tensions

Houston, 25 February (Argus) — US secretary of state Marco Rubio strongly defended the US intervention in Venezuela to a gathering of Caribbean nations today, also calling for stronger energy ties in the region in comments delivered as Cuba reported a firefight with a US-flagged vessel. "I will tell you this without any apology or without any apprehension: Venezuela is better off today than it was eight weeks ago," Rubio told members of the Caribbean Community (Caricom) on Wednesday in a summit in St Kitts and Nevis. Caricom has 15 members and six associate members, but does not include Cuba or Venezuela. The US will continue to drive for fair, democratic elections in Venezuela, Rubio said, after leaving it in the hands of collaborators of former President Nicolas Maduro, whom the US captured on 3 January. The initial priorities of preventing mass migration and spillover violence in the wake of Maduro's seizure were achieved, he said. More broadly in the region, the US hopes to help ensure economic development and better access to energy, Rubio said. "Many of the countries represented here today have energy resources that I know you seek to explore responsibly, safely, but in a way that generates wealth and prosperity for your people and your countries, and we want to be your partner in that regard," Rubio said. Cuba confrontation The Caribbean meeting came as Cuba reported on the same day that it killed four of 10 passengers on a Florida-flagged speedboat that invaded its territorial waters and opened fire on an approaching Cuban coast guard vessel. The coast guard shot back, also wounding six of the passengers who are now receiving medical care, the interior ministry said. "Cuba ratifies its will to protect its territorial waters," the ministry said. The US has not confirmed the incident but it is "a situation we're monitoring, hopefully it's not as bad as we fear it could be. But I can't say more," vice-president JD Vance said on Wednesday afternoon. The ship was about one nautical mile offshore from the city of Corralillo on the northern coast of Cuba, according to Cuba's account. It had a hull identification number of FL7726SH, Cuba said. This indicates it was not likely a military vessel, which Florida's boat registration authority lists as exempt from state titling. By Carla Bass Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UN launches SE Asia energy transition initiative

25/02/26

UN launches SE Asia energy transition initiative

Singapore, 25 February (Argus) — The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) has launched a new regional initiative to accelerate the energy transition in southeast Asian countries, with initial funding of over $4mn. The Energy Transition for Green Growth and Prosperity (ETGGP) is a three-year initiative that begins in 2026. Initial funds pledged so far amount to over $4mn from philanthropic foundations. The initiative focuses on three key areas — supporting regional power connectivity through green power corridors; mobilising green finance to create enabling conditions, build investable pipelines and facilitate larger-scale capital flow; and analytical work to support long-term planning for energy, economy and industry. The ETGGP will work with energy, finance, transport, environment and social development ministries, while also bringing together development partners and financial institutions to come up with policy solutions. Through this initiative, the UN expects an improvement in policy co-ordination, greater investment readiness and better access to public and private finance for clean energy. "The launch comes at a critical time," said UNESCAP, as the Asia-Pacific region accounts for around 60pc of global greenhouse gas emissions and 80pc of global coal supply. The region's energy demand is expected to rise by about a third by 2035 and two-thirds by 2050, according to the IEA, with just under half of this demand growth to be met by fossil fuels. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations last year endorsed a regional energy plan for 2026-30 targeting a 30pc share of renewables in the primary energy mix, and a 45pc share in installed power capacity by the end of this period. A key part of this plan is the Asean power grid , with the bloc acknowledging the importance of creating green power corridors to ensure a secure and interconnected low-carbon energy future. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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