B100 advanced fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) dob Netherlands has this week flipped to a discount to marine gasoil (MGO) dob ARA when accounting for EU emissions trading system (ETS) costs.
The discount means that it is now cheaper to sail on B100 than MGO, marking a sharp turn in fundamentals for the marine biodiesel product. With FuelEU Maritime requirements also in place, requiring a 2pc reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions this year, shipowners may look to bunker some of those needed volumes if logistically viable. Most participants reported higher interest for the product and an increase in enquiries, but demand has not spiked yet. This could be because buyers are generally holding off unnecessary bunker fuel purchases, awaiting more stable prices.
Price volatility in underlying crude and gasoil markets has capped bunker fuel trade and purchasing has been limited to buyers seeking urgent refuelling or booking volumes for the second half of March in the past two days. The typical differential of around $10-20/t between Rotterdam and Antwerp very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and MGO that has emerged since January to reflect RED III requirements in the Netherlands also disappeared on 3 March, with the sudden price surge diluting those premiums and suppliers holding on to limited volumes likely to have more control over offer levels.
The spread turned negative for the first time since the B100 price launched on 22 January, and marks the first time a B100 Argus assessment was at an ETS-inclusive discount to MGO since November 2024. The spread was at a discount of $73.16/t on 2 March, before widening to $150.72/t on 3 March. B100 Advanced Fame dob Netherlands was assessed at $1,075/t on 3 March, down by $45/t from a week prior — tracking declines in the wholesale Advanced Fame fob market. Unmet offers were sharply lower on the Argus Open Markets (AOM) session on 2 March, counterbalancing a sharp increase in gasoil futures — the front-month Ice gasoil futures contract 16:30 GMT marker rose by $122.50/t on 3 March, having posted $133.75/t gains in the previous session, reaching its highest since 2022.
MGO dob ARA, on the other hand, stood at $927/t on 3 March, up by $243/t since the end of last week, and its highest since 2023. MGO prices in Rotterdam and Antwerp have spiked since the start of this week, reflecting the surge in Brent crude and gasoil prices following the outbreak of the US-Iran war. Rotterdam MGO was pegged at $957.50/t dob on 3 March, up by $242.25/t in from 27 February, while Antwerp MGO was at $967.50/t dob, up by $254.50/t over the same period.
