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Latest Market News

Thailand's fertilizer supply ample as war continues

  • Spanish Market: Fertilizers
  • 06/03/26

Fertilizer supply in Thailand remains ample for the next two months, and scheduled arrivals will help to build stocks which will ensure sufficient supply until August, the Thai government said today.

Fertilizer supply in Thailand totalled 1.52mn t as of January, with urea accounting for 320,000t or 6.5mn bags, which is sufficient to meet demand in the country for more than two months. Thailand is expected to receive around 100,000t of urea from Saudi Arabia, equivalent to around 2mn bags, bringing the total amount of urea available to farmers to 8.5mn bags, which is sufficient until August, said Airin Panrit, deputy spokesperson for the prime minister's office on 6 March.

The government has also instructed relevant agencies to monitor the evolving situation in the Middle East and its impact on domestic prices, and warned retailers not to take advantage of the situation by raising prices excessively, or they would risk facing legal action.

This statement came after concerns of a fertilizer shortage arose among farmers following the start of the US-Israel-Iran war, which has effectively choked off supply from producers in the Mideast Gulf for now. The Middle East is the largest urea exporting region, shipping around 20mn t/yr or 35pc of global seaborne trade. Thailand imports most of its urea from the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia being its biggest supplier, accounting for around 1.1mn t of deliveries in 2025.

Thailand also imports urea from other sources including Malaysia and Brunei, which could supplement Thailand's urea stocks if needed. "Farmers should not panic," said Panrit, adding "There is no need to rush or buy or stockpile large volumes of fertilizers."

Domestic urea prices rise further, importers' reactions mixed

Meanwhile, some suppliers have continued to raise domestic granular urea prices in line with firming international offers. The latest bagged domestic granular urea prices have risen to around 17,000 baht/t ($535/t) ex-warehouse as of 6 March, up by 800 baht/t from the day before.

Importers agree that further price hikes are expected in the weeks to come.

One importer told Argus that current urea inventories are sufficient to cover the upcoming seasonal demand in the near term and importers do not need to rush to import more spot urea on the back of the conflict. Others are seeing several importers seeking spot offers from regional suppliers in Malaysia and Brunei, as they expect supply from the Middle East to be disrupted in the short term.

But importers will have to grapple with tight short-term supply from regional producers and significantly higher prices. Malaysian producer Petronas sold 30,000t of spot granular urea on 5 March at $650/t fob Sipitang and has yet to offer any new cargoes, while Bruneian producer BFI is mostly sold out of March and April availability and only offering first-half May cargoes. Pupuk Indonesia is also out of the export market with no sign of a sale tender.

Thailand is currently in the harvesting season for off-season rice and fruits. The main planting season for paddy typically starts in May, coinciding with the start of the southwest monsoon season. Domestic demand for fertilizers is likely to emerge only from April onwards, which leaves some time for farmers to evaluate the situation before buying fertilizers.

By Huijun Yao and Dinise Chng

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05/03/26

Abu Dhabi's Adnoc rolls over March sulphur price

Abu Dhabi's Adnoc rolls over March sulphur price

London, 5 March (Argus) — Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc has rolled over its March sulphur official selling price for the Indian subcontinent at $530/t fob Ruwais. This follows state-owned QatarEnergy rolling over its March price at $520/t fob on 4 March. These prices are well above last week's spot range, assessed at $494-496/t fob on 26 February, before the US-Israel attack on Iran. But the subsequent escalation of the conflict and the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz led to a jump in bunker fuel prices and insurance premiums as well as delays to vessel movements. This has changed the previously softening sulphur price direction, with almost half of global seaborne sulphur exports left stranded. Offers to delivered markets have risen substantially, with some offers to China, Indonesia and India indicated in a range of $570-600/t cfr. But most suppliers are opting to wait and see if sulphur vessel transit through the strait of Hormuz will resume in the near term, to better evaluate market conditions before making offers. Buyers are taking a similar approach before rushing to buy replacement supply for previous bookings from the Middle East. Middle East shipments will also now be subject to substantial delivery costs, if they can be delivered, with some indicating a doubling of freight rates from the region. This will inevitably erode margins, provided the vessels can pass through the strait, adding to uncertainty in the sulphur market and weighing on activity while market participants evaluate conditions. By Maria Mosquera Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US-Iran war exposes Australia’s urea import reliance

05/03/26
05/03/26

US-Iran war exposes Australia’s urea import reliance

Sydney, 5 March (Argus) — The US-Iran war is causing unprecedented risk to Australia's fertilizer supply in a period of peak demand, market sources said, highlighting the country's reliance on urea imports from the Persian Gulf since the closure of domestic manufacturers earlier this decade. Australia imported 64pc of its urea from the gulf in 2025, trade data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show. Current domestic urea supplies will last until mid-April, but Australia will need additional imports beyond that, multiple suppliers told Argus , as they turn to alternative sources including southeast Asia and Oman. Oman's 2.1mn t/yr Omifco plant remains operational, but it is unclear whether its 1.2mn t/yr SIUCI plant is still operating. Supply from Oman is limited, but vessels were still loading as of 3 March. Australia imported 1.2mn t of urea from southeast Asia in 2025, representing around 32pc of the country's total imports, ABS data show. Most southeast Asian producers are sold out for March, and vessels typically take 2-3 weeks to reach Australia's east coast. A total of 118,900t of urea is currently in transit to Australia from Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia across four vessels, vessel tracking data from Kpler show. Another 165,100t of urea is in transit from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Australian growers had been holding off on considerable urea purchases because of dry conditions in most of eastern Australia. Growers now requesting volumes are facing limited offers, according to a market participant. A prolonged war blocking urea exports from the Persian Gulf or leading to higher prices from alternate suppliers could moderate top dressing applications and downgrade Australia's crop quality and quantity. Domestic delivered urea prices have risen consistently since the conflict began on 28 February. Offers are currently above A$1,000/t free carrier (fca) Geelong and Argus last assessed granular urea at A$830-840/t fca Geelong on 26 February. Domestic demand for granular urea peaks in April-June for pre-seeding and top-dressing applications on winter crops such as canola, barley and wheat. Without sufficient urea, growers are looking for alternative nitrogen sources including ammonium sulphate (amsul). Domestic amsul prices were last reported at A$480/t fca Geelong and suppliers are reporting low stocks after a rush of demand from growers. Australia imported 575,400t of amsul from China in 2025, accounting for 99pc of its total imports, ABS data show. Australia became dependent on urea imports in 2022 when Dyno Nobel closed its 499,000 t/yr Gibson Island facility . By Susannah Cornford and Ed Dunlop Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US court orders refunds on Trump's IEEPA tariffs

04/03/26
04/03/26

US court orders refunds on Trump's IEEPA tariffs

Washington, 4 March (Argus) — A federal court has ordered President Donald Trump's administration to begin processing refunds on tens of billions of dollars in emergency tariffs the US Supreme Court said last month were unlawful. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) must recalculate final duties owed on "any and all" imported goods without including the tariffs that Trump imposed under law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), Richard Eaton, a judge on the US Court of International Trade, wrote in a three-page decision on Wednesday. Eaton, who said he is the only judge on the court hearing IEEPA tariff refund cases, said the Supreme Court's decision that struck down Trump's emergency tariffs should provide across-the-board relief, even to those that had not filed lawsuits. Thousands of companies have already filed lawsuits seeking refunds of the IEEPA tariffs, which collected an estimated $175bn from importers during the nearly one-year period when Trump had them in effect. "All importers of record whose entries were subject to IEEPA duties are entitled to the benefit of the Learning Resources decision," Eaton wrote, referencing the name of the Supreme Court's tariff ruling. The court's order does not explicitly lay out the refund process, but instead applies to customs entries that are "unliquidated" — those that are pending — and those that are liquidated but not yet final. The order, issued as part of a tariff refund lawsuit an air filtration product company filed less than a week ago, suggests that courts intend to move quickly on refunds after the Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling finding Trump had no authority to impose his emergency tariffs. Earlier this week, a federal appeals court denied a request by the Trump administration for a months-long delay in court proceedings over tariff refunds, allowing tariff lawsuits to resume in the Court of International Trade. Trump previously said the refund process might take "years" to resolve in court. The Trump administration told Eaton this week it was still considering "next steps" for the Supreme Court opinion, including the mechanics and "scope" of refunds. As of Wednesday, CBP said it had not paid refunds on any of the IEEPA tariffs. In a court filing earlier on Wednesday, the administration conceded that it would have to also pay interest on any tariff refunds it is required to make. The cumulative interest payments on the refunded tariffs could reach $700mn each month, according to calculations the think tank Cato Institute published this week. US senator Ed Markey (D-Massachusetts), in a letter on Wednesday to administration officials, said that the Trump administration's "dithering" on tariff refunds had created an opening for those on Wall Street to offer small companies with immediate cash needs "pennies on the dollars" to purchase their tariff refund rights. Further delaying tariff refunds would result in "more pain" for US companies and their customers, he wrote. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil’s Jan PPI contracts on fuels, food

04/03/26
04/03/26

Brazil’s Jan PPI contracts on fuels, food

Sao Paulo, 4 March (Argus) — Prices paid to Brazilian producers fell by 4.33pc in January from a year earlier, mostly pushed down by the food sector and fuels, according to government statistics agency IBGE. The decline in the producer price index (PPI) slowed from a 4.51pc contraction in December but quickened from 3.36pc in November and smaller contractions the prior two months. The disinflation in PPI suggests that consumer price inflation, which accelerated to 4.44pc in January from 4.26pc in December, may soon be easing. The food sector, which accounted for more than half of the total PPI index result, fell by 9.84pc in January from a year earlier, after a 10.48pc annual loss in December, extending a negative streak begun in September, IBGE said. Sugar products and pork were among the main negative drivers, while falling sugar prices were mainly affected by a weakening dollar to the Brazilian real over the last year. IBGE's research manager Murilo Alvim said. As for crude and biofuels, producer prices for the sector fell by 7.64pc in the last 12-months, following a 5.64pc annual loss in December and marking an eight-month low, IBGE data show. Metallurgy producer prices fell by 4.91pc in January from a year earlier, following an 8.06pc annual loss in December. The index ticked up by 0.3pc from December. Brazil's PPI posted 10 consecutive monthly declines from February-November 2025, IBGE said. Copper and gold contributed the most to inflationary pressures within metallurgy in the monthly comparison, adding up to its 2.73pc. As for chemicals, sulfur-based fertilizers and other imported feedstocks raised producer prices to a 1.7pc gain from December, Alvim said. PPI measures average prices offered by suppliers to domestic producers of goods and services without considering taxes and freight costs. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesia halts long-term MHP offers on Hormuz crisis

04/03/26
04/03/26

Indonesia halts long-term MHP offers on Hormuz crisis

Singapore, 4 March (Argus) — Indonesian nickel mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) producers have stopped offering long-term contracts so that they can assess the potential impact of sulphur supply disruptions from the Middle East following the Iran conflict. Market uncertainty surrounding sulphur feedstock availability has pushed some trading firms to stop offering MHP cargoes, regardless of delivery time, given expectations of further upside in prices. Some producers are still offering spot cargoes for loading next month and producers will continue to honour quarterly contracts for January-March delivery. MHP payables were steady at 89–90pc through the first quarter ahead of the lunar new year, before trades edged down to 89–89.5pc as sulphur prices softened. First-quarter contract payables from major Indonesian producers were settled at around 90pc. Second-quarter offers are expected to face upward pressure, and producers may shorten contract terms from quarterly to monthly amid the uncertain outlook. Sulphur accounted for 44pc of MHP production costs in March, compared with nickel ore at around 33pc, according to market participants. Indonesia relies heavily on sulphur shipments from the Middle East, with high pressure acid leaching (HPAL) plants dependent on sulphuric acid produced domestically from imported sulphur. The country received 3.95mn t of sulphur from the Middle East last year — 74pc of its total 5.35mn t of imports — driven by rapid growth in MHP capacity. HPAL facilities produce MHP for use in nickel sulphate production and downstream battery materials processing. With vessel transits through the strait of Hormuz now effectively stalled, reports have emerged of shipment delays for cargoes bound for Indonesian buyers, heightening concerns over potential impacts on HPAL operations and MHP production. One Indonesia-based producer said it is evaluating the potential impact of delayed sulphur deliveries on near term output. Indonesia is the dominant global MHP supplier following the shutdown of most western HPAL plants since late 2023. The country hosts roughly 10 operating MHP projects with combined nameplate capacity of about 440,000 t/yr of nickel. Argus forecasts Indonesian MHP capacity to increase to 694,000 t/yr in 2026, with several HPAL projects scheduled to start up this year. But a one third cut to the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) nickel mining quota to 260-270mn t of nickel ore, is expected to slow both capacity additions and output growth. The impact on the sulphuric acid market is less significant, as Indonesia sources all of its sulphuric acid from within the Asia-Pacific region. The country imported 1.09mn t of sulphuric acid last year. While reduced sulphur availability could prompt buyers to substitute sulphur with sulphuric acid, the flexibility to do so is limited by the difficulty in obtaining import permit licences. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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