The US-Iran war and its impacts on oil products' infrastructure and shipping logistics will shear 4.3mn b/d off global throughput on the month and around 3mn b/d year on year in March, according to the IEA's latest Oil Market Report (OMR), with Mideast Gulf refineries bearing the brunt of these run cuts.
Global run rates will drop to 79.7mn b/d this month, down from 84mn b/d in February and 82.4mn b/d in March 2025, the IEA said today. Around three-quarters of these cuts are taking place in the Middle East, where 4mn b/d of crude refining capacity is already shut or at risk of closure.
The organisation expects run rates at Mideast Gulf refineries to bounce back to 10mn b/d by May, exceeding pre-Iran war February throughput rates of 9.8mn b/d. Middle Eastern refinery units are running at reduced run rates and can be returned to full operations once the sites can recommence export loadings, the IEA said. Global runs will not return to February levels until June, when they are forecast to hit 85.1mn b/d. "Should the war and disruptions to trade flows drag on, the
impact on refinery activity will extend beyond the disruptions we have assumed in [the report], which are limited to March and April," the IEA said.
Feedstock, gas and power supply cuts to Mideast Gulf refineries will contribute to regional run cuts this month. The strait of Hormuz closure is also cutting cargo loadings, in turn forcing output down because of the limited storage capacity in the region. The IEA estimated that the Mideast Gulf export-oriented refineries hold capacity of two weeks of production "at best".
Downstream infrastructure targeted amid the conflict is also forcing through lower regional crude throughputs. Saudi Arabia's 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura, Bahrain's 405,000 b/d Sitra, and the UAE's 817,000 b/d Ruwais refineries have been attacked by Iran, leading to part or full shutdowns, according to the IEA.
The collapse in refinery runs this month will require "significant product draws" to meet a market balance, the IEA said. Global oil demand is only set to drop by 60,000 b/d this month, it added.
East of Suez refiners are most exposed to the Iran war, which received 90pc of the 15mn b/d of crude and condensates exported via Hormuz last year, according to the IEA. OECD Asia Oceania will see crude runs cut by around 500,000 b/d on the month to 5.4mn b/d in March, while non-OECD Other Asian countries — excluding China — will cut rates by 430,000 b/d to 10.4mn b/d. Asia imports more than 60pc of its total crude requirements from the Middle East, according to the IEA.
By contrast, OECD European run rates are set to "hold up well" as refiners pursue increasing oil product margins supported by the conflict. Throughput rates in Europe will stand at 11mn b/d in March, down from 11.3mn b/d in February as seasonal refinery maintenance programs are underway. Europe imported 1.3mn b/d of Middle Eastern crude last year, according to the IEA.
The IEA forecasts 2026 run rates to now be flat on the year at 83.8mn b/d, revised down by 800,000 b/d from February's OMR.
