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Latest Market News

Cargill halts Brazil-China soy flows, market slumps

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture
  • 12/03/26

US agribusiness company Cargill has reportedly suspended Brazilian soybean purchases and shipments to China as of 6 March, in response to stricter phytosanitary inspections on cargoes implemented by Brazil's government.

The decision only became public after comments from Cargill's president of Brazilian operations, Paulo Sousa, during the Argentina Week 2026 event on 11 March. He claimed the decision is a reaction to the new method of collecting samples of cargo set for shipment.

Brazil's ministry of agriculture MAPA now conducts its own sampling, instead of relying on trading companies. That is rumored to follow complaints from Chinese buyers after receiving multiple cargoes with higher levels of damaged grains and noting a significant presence of weeds in shipments, according to market participants.

Cargill has suspended purchases of soybeans from Brazilian farmers and redirected vessels that were previously bound for China to other destinations, market sources said, adding that Cargill may not be the only company adopting such measures, though they provided no further details. Cargill did not immediately respond to Argus' requests for comment and referred inquiries to Brazil's vegetable oil and grain export associations Abiove and Anec, respectively.

The associations are following these developments with concern, while also "acting collaboratively and maintaining conversations with authorities and members of the production chain to search for solutions that will ensure trade flows", they said in a joint statement on 12 March. MAPA has yet to issue an official comment.

Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean export market reacted sharply to the news. Bids in the Paranagua paper market and Santos cargo market were scarce throughout the day, despite international prices rising on gains from CBOT futures and the appreciation of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. These conditions already exert downward pressure on Brazil's port differentials, which was further intensified by Cargill's move.

Market participants also expressed concern that the suspension could reduce total export volumes to China by "a few million metric tonnes". They noted that competition to place Brazilian soybeans in alternative destinations is expected to increase, though Europe's anti-deforestation policies and the ongoing Iran war may pose significant obstacles.

Other market participants say that the suspension may be short lived, seeing it more as a strategy to pressure the Brazilian government into dropping the stricter inspections. Some sources also suggested that Chinese importers may have encouraged the move to push Brazilian prices lower, while others described it as a convenient justification for the slowdown in purchases from farmers. Negotiations have already been hindered by concerns over rising domestic transportation costs, driven by higher fuel prices linked to the Iran war.

By Nathalia Giannetti

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12/03/26

Argentina's inflation accelerates in Feb

Argentina's inflation accelerates in Feb

Montevideo, 12 March (Argus) — Argentina's inflation increased to an annual rate of 33.1pc in February, intensifying pressure on the government to meet its targets. The consumer price index (CPI) quickened from 32.4pc in January, according to the statistics agency, Indec. Inflation has been accelerating since falling to an annual 31.3pc in October, a cyclical low. While annualized inflation in February was well off the 66.9pc reached in February 2025, the trend makes it increasingly unlikely President Javier Milei's administration will hit its 10.1pc target set in the 2026 budget. It could also complicate commitments to the IMF to keep inflation in check as part of the administration's sweeping structural adjustment program. Education led the annual increase in prices, rising by 50.7pc in February. Housing followed, at 44.3pc, while inflation at restaurants and hotels rose by 41.6pc and transport costs were up by 33.1pc in February from a year earlier. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 2.9pc in February, following a 2.9pc gain in January and a 2.8pc monthly gain in December. It has been rising from a cyclical low of 1.5pc in May last year. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US trade deficit narrows by 25pc in January

12/03/26
12/03/26

US trade deficit narrows by 25pc in January

Houston, 12 March (Argus) — The US trade deficit narrowed in January to its lowest in three months, as exports grew faster than imports. The US trade deficit in goods and services fell to a seasonally adjusted $54.4bn in January, down from $72.9bn in December, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Thursday. The deficit in goods fell from December by $17.5bn to $81.8bn. The services surplus widened by $1bn to $27.3bn. Compared with January 2025, the total deficit shrank by 58pc. President Donald Trump launched a raft of tariffs on 2 April last year, "Liberation Day," citing emergency powers, before suspending the highest reciprocal tariffs in a bid to negotiate bilateral trade deals or gain leverage for sometimes unrelated deals. The ensuing uncertainty in US trading relations, along with scattershot diplomatic sorties, including lashing out at allies and adversaries alike, has scrambled supply chains, corporate investment and hiring plans and spending patterns, helping to undermine the dollar and US debt markets. The trade-weighted dollar has depreciated by about 2pc so far this year following an 8pc depreciation last year, according to Oxford Economics. A weaker dollar supports US exports and makes imports more expensive. The US trade deficit edged higher to $911bn last year from $904bn in 2024, with the goods deficit rising to $1.24 trillion from $1.215 trillion the prior year. The full trade deficit peaked at $923bn in 2022, up from $837bn the prior year, before falling to $774bn in 2023, according to BEA data. Total US exports in January rose to $302bn, $15.8bn more than in December, while imports were $356bn, $2.6bn less than in December. "Imports would normally be rising, so their recent stagnation suggests that the tariffs have depressed demand somewhat, in favor of domestic production, but the returns are minimal in the context of the pain of higher costs inflicted on businesses and households," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note. "The overall deficit in January was essentially unchanged from its Q4 average of $53.3B, suggesting that net trade will have little bearing in GDP growth in Q1." Exports of goods increased on the month by $14.6bn to $195.5bn in January, while imports of goods fell by $2.8bn to $277bn. Exports of services increased by $1.2bn to $106.7bn, and services imports rose by $23bn to $79.3bn. Petroleum trade slows US exports of crude and petroleum products, including natural gas liquids, fuel oil and others on an end use basis, totaled $20.6bn in January, down from $21.1bn in December, with imports at $15.5bn in January, down from $16.2bn the prior month, the report said. Exports of crude averaged 3.9mn b/d in January, with imports at 6.1mn b/d the same month. The US had a $19bn deficit with Vietnam in January, a $12.9bn shortfall with Mexico and a $12.5bn deficit with China, a $6.1bn deficit with the EU and a $6bn deficit with South Korea, a $5.5bn deficit with Japan and a $4.9bn shortfall with Germany. The US deficit with Canada was $2.7bn in January. The US had a $7bn surplus with the UK, a $6.4bn surplus with the Netherlands, a $4.5bn surplus with central and south America, a $2.2bn surplus with Saudi Arabia and a $1.8bn surplus with Brazil. For 2025, the US showed surpluses of $61bn with Netherlands, $52bn with south and central America — including $14bn with Brazil — $32bn with the UK, and $28.5bn with Hong Kong. The average US tariff rate on imports rose to 13pc by the end of last year from 2.6pc at the beginning of the year, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York study released late last year. US firms and consumers bear 90pc of the economic burden from the tariffs, the New York Fed study said. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

High freight could open door for US corn to China

12/03/26
12/03/26

High freight could open door for US corn to China

Houston, 12 March (Argus) — Surging shipping costs could allow US corn to become competitive into China, although Chinese interest levels will ultimately dictate whether purchases materialize. Fob corn prices out of the US Gulf coast have been globally competitive for much of the 2025-26 marketing year, seldom exceeding $220/t. With competitive pricing, US exports have surged to 66.5mn metric tonnes (t) through 5 March of the 2025-26 marketing year, 16mn t ahead of the same week last year, according to US Department of Agriculture data. But US corn sales to China have been close to zero since they reached 2.81mn t in the 2023-24 marketing year. The US sold just 33,000t of corn to China during 2024-25, and the US has yet to sell any corn to the country this marketing year as tariff barriers have reduced trade between the two. That could change, though, as rising freight rates have put the Argus -assessed Santos Brazil to Qingdao dry grains rate above the Houston US to Qingdao rate for the first time since October 2022. Both freight costs have surged since the start of March in the wake of the US-Iran war, but the Brazil-originated rate reached a $3.40/t premium to the US Gulf origin as of 11 March. US rates had remained above Brazil's immediately after the start of the conflict, but higher bunker costs in Brazil have led to a larger overall increase to the Santos rate, flipping the spread between the two. Global corn prices have also moved higher, increasing the attractiveness of US-origin corn to Chinese buyers. Brazilian corn sellers have raised offers since the start of the conflict, pulling the Argus -assessed July loaded fob Santos/Tubarao price up $4.72/t since the end of February. China's domestic sellers have also raised offers as slowing farmer sales — as well as potential quality concerns — have tightened supplies and increased buyers' interest in the international market. Falling US barge rates and increased farmer selling have helped US prices fare better , with the Argus -assessed May loaded fob US Gulf price gaining just $2.26/t since the end of February. Barriers to entry Although US corn has become competitively priced, that may not be enough to draw Chinese purchasers back. China's import tariff on in-quota US corn remains 11–10 percentage points higher than pre-2025 levels, even after tariff barriers between the two countries were lowered as part of a trade deal reached last fall. The trade deal also did not include a requirement to purchase US corn, instead only obligating China to resume buying US soybeans, sorghum, and timber. Chinese buyers must also operate under the country's tariff rate quota, which was set at 7.2mn t for corn imports this year. Of that volume, only 40pc is allocated to private purchasers, with the rest set for state-owned firms. That means private purchasers have to decide if filling their share of the 2.88mn t allotted to them is the right decision following the recent escalations in grain and freight prices. In all, China's return to the US corn market is dependent on multiple factors, but competitive delivered prices against other major origins may prove to the be the first domino to fall. By Joseph Crosby Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil inflation decelerates to 3.81pc in Feb

12/03/26
12/03/26

Brazil inflation decelerates to 3.81pc in Feb

Sao Paulo, 12 March (Argus) — Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to an annual 3.81pc in February, mainly driven by transport costs and school tuition readjustments. The consumer price index IPCA slowed from 4.44pc in January, national statistics agency IBGE said on Thursday, after accelerating from 4.26pc in December. The annual figure was down from 5.06pc in February 2025 and marked the lowest headline reading since 3.93pc in May 2024. Housing costs fell to 5.67pc in February from 10pc the prior month, helped by slower gains in electricity. Transport costs were among the largest contributors to the monthly gain in the IPCA, rising to 2.49pc on an increase in flight tickets and bus tickets, despite gasoline pushing down motor fuels costs, IBGE said. Food and beverage costs, which weigh heavily on the index, decelerated to an annual 1.76pc in February from 2.20pc in January. Lower prices for coffee and eggs pushed down the result, IBGE's research manager Fernando Goncalves said. Brazil's central bank has kept its target interest rate elevated at 15pc since June 2025 . By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US may waive Jones Act shipping restrictions

12/03/26
12/03/26

US may waive Jones Act shipping restrictions

New York, 12 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is considering temporarily waiving Jones Act restrictions on domestic shipping to ensure the stability of supply chains during the US-Israel war with Iran. While the action has not been finalized, the waiver would be for a limited period to ensure energy and agricultural products are flowing freely to US ports, the White House told Argus today. The Jones Act is a longstanding US maritime law that requires commercial vessels operating between US ports to be built, owned, operated and crewed by US citizens. Jones Act tankers normally command a premium because of their unique status and limited number compared to the overall international fleet. While permanent changes to the Jones Act require congressional approval, waivers can be issued by the president's administration, often during natural disaster-driven supply chain disruption. By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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