Brazil’s central bank cuts target rate to 14.75pc

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
18/03/26

Brazil's central bank lowered its target rate to 14.75pc in its second meeting of 2026, in a bid to smooth out fluctuations in economic activity and boost jobs even amid the backdrop of rising global tensions.

The decision to lower the rate, announced on Wednesday, follows a string of decisions to keep it unchanged at 15pc from June 2025 until now.

Domestically, economic activity appears to be moderating while the labor market is showing signs of resilience, the central bank's monetary committee said. Headline and underlying inflation measures continue to soften, but still remain above the inflation target. Inflation risks are higher than usual after the US-Israeli war on Iran broke out, the committee, known as the Copom, said.

In the US, Fed policymakers Wednesday, kept the target rate unchanged for a second meeting this year.

The lower rate in Brazil may be the start of a cutting cycle for the year, former Copom member Sergio Goldenstein said last week. It is not a one-time adjustment despite the lack of predictability due to rising global conflicts since the start of 2026, he said.

Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to an annual 3.81pc in February. Still, inflation expectations, as calculated by the bank's Focus survey, remain above target, at 4.1pc and 3.8pc for 2026 and 2027.

For full-year 2025, GDP growth slowed to 2.3pc from 3.4pc in 2024 and 3.2pc in 2023, IBGE data show.

By João Curi

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18/03/26

US crude pipeline premiums at multi-year highs: Update

Houston, 18 March (Argus) — Permian-quality WTI in Houston surged to a new multi-year high Wednesday as futures prices continued to climb due to war-driven export demand, but WTI waterborne Gulf coast fob prices continue to be pressured by high freight rates. Argus' WTI Houston outright assessment settled at $101.13/bl Wednesday, surpassing its 13 March assessment when it first reached its highest level since 25 July 2022. The WTI Houston volume-weighted average premium also soared to a new multi-year high, trading over $1.90/bl higher than Tuesday at $3.50-$5.50/bl premiums to Domestic Sweet (DSW) and settling at its widest premium to the basis since 21 April 2020. Louisiana-delivered Mars was also up from Tuesday at $103.51/bl. The medium sour was reported trading as strong as a $7.50/bl premium relative to DSW, up by roughly $2.85/bl from Tuesday. US benchmark April Nymex WTI settled higher by 11¢/bl at $96.32/bl, while May Ice Brent rose by $3.96/bl to $107.38/bl. European physical crude benchmark North Sea Dated also climbed to $112.83/bl , its highest price since late July 2022. US crude values have been supported as refiners seek alternative supply to replace Middle Eastern barrels that are essentially cut off with the de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz. Prices are being further supported as Iran threatened retaliatory strikes against downstream facilities in the Middle East today. Buyers typically reliant on Middle Eastern supply are exploring more established non-Mideast options, with refiners in Thailand, Vietnam and Taiwan leaning more heavily on US crude to diversify away from Mideast crude should the flows remain disrupted. Even with the elevated freight rates, the delivered economics still favor US barrels, prompting refiners across Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia to secure additional volumes as regional premiums spike and war-risk costs rise. WTI fob US Gulf coast values have been pressured as the high freight rates have offset the support offered by increased export demand. Rates from the region remain elevated, although they have eased from a spike at the beginning of the conflict. Limited VLCC tonnage, longer ballast times and elevated insurance costs are squeezing the market, slowing spot activity and leaving differentials largely governed by freight-driven constraints. To help mitigate the supply disruptions and ease crude prices, President Donald Trump's administration said it will offer long-term crude loans from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve . The DOE finished accepting bids on Tuesday night on an initial solicitation that offered to release half of the crude and expects early deliveries from the exchanges will start by the end of this week. By Mykah Briscoe and Nicole Linares Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Qatar's Ras Laffan comes under attack: Update 2

18/03/26

Qatar's Ras Laffan comes under attack: Update 2

Adds more details. Washington, 18 March (Argus) — The Ras Laffan industrial complex sustained damage on Wednesday after a missile attack, QatarEnergy said. "Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires, as extensive damage has been caused," QatarEnergy said. All personnel have been accounted for, and no casualties have been reported, QatarEnergy said in a post on the X platform. Tehran earlier on Wednesday listed the 305,000 b/d Ras Laffan refinery in Qatar among five downstream facilities it would attack shortly in retaliation for what it described as US-Israeli strikes on Iranian gas treatment plants at the South Pars gas field. It was not immediately clear whether the refinery itself was directly attacked or sustained any damage. It also was not clear whether the 77mn t/yr Ras Laffan LNG export terminal sustained damage. Tehran also threatened strikes against the 400,000 b/d Samref refinery at Yanbu and the Sadara petrochemical complex at Jubail in Saudi Arabia, Qatar Chemical in Doha and the Al-Hosn sour gas field in Abu Dhabi. Riyadh also came under attack on Wednesday night local time. The Saudi defense ministry said it intercepted 4 ballistic missiles "... resulting in some debris falling in different areas of the capital" but without "damage or casualties, according to preliminary assessments". By Haik Gugarats and Annemarie Pettinato Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico GDP outlook clouded by Iran war: IMEF

18/03/26

Mexico GDP outlook clouded by Iran war: IMEF

Mexico City, 18 March (Argus) — Mexico's finance executives association IMEF slightly raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast in its March survey, but warned the conflict in Iran has added uncertainty to US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement negotiations, further clouding the outlook. IMEF increased its 2026 growth forecast to 1.4pc from 1.3pc in its previous survey, citing upward revisions to fourth-quarter 2025 GDP and similar adjustments by the central bank and other private sector surveys. "But this is just one tenth of one percent, which, in addition, does not fully incorporate the events that have taken place since 28 February," said Herrera, given many of the executives filed responses before the start of the US-Iran war. Herrera added that higher energy prices are unlikely to hit first-quarter GDP, given advanced gasoline purchases, with prices set before the war erupted. "But a risky situation is starting to take shape for Mexico, the effects of which we will mainly see in the second quarter," Herrera said, as uncertainty builds ahead of the 1 July USMCA review deadline. "We think investment will remain suppressed until we have good news on that front," he added, amid concerns the US could extend the process through its November midterm elections. The Middle East conflict could also pressure Mexico's fiscal deficit, IMEF said. "Finding a solution to this confrontation is proving slower than originally anticipated, and it is highly likely that our country will suffer the effects of increased gasoline and food prices," the association said. Mexico's government has already indicated it would subsidize fuel excise taxes to cushion rising prices, but this could push the projected 4.5pc fiscal deficit closer to the 5pc level seen in 2025, IMEF said. As a result, IMEF warned that public-sector debt could reach 60pc of GDP, potentially triggering a credit rating action and pushing sovereign and state-owned Pemex debt closer to non-investment grade. The group also flagged increased volatility in the peso-dollar exchange rate, noting this could begin generating pass-through effects to inflation if the conflict persists for several months. For now, IMEF continues to see the central bank issuing two quarter-point rate cuts to the target interest rate, to 6.5pc from the current 7pc, by the end of 2026, and held its end-2026 inflation estimate at 4pc. IMEF slightly strengthened its peso outlook, forecasting Ps18.35/$1 by end-2026, compared with Ps18.4/$1 in the previous survey. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Fed holds target rate on Middle East oil surge: Update

18/03/26

Fed holds target rate on Middle East oil surge: Update

Adds Powell comments, background. Houston, 18 March (Argus) — Federal Reserve policymakers kept their target interest rate unchanged Wednesday, citing uncertainty from "developments in the Middle East" prompted by the Iran war. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75pc in the second meeting of 2026, following quarter-point cuts in September, October and December last year. "Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated," the FOMC said in its statement. "The implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain." In its latest median economic projections, released Wednesday, the Fed continued to pencil in one quarter-point rate cut this year, unchanged from the prior projection in December. Policymakers still see one more quarter-point cut in 2027. Still, the Fed views its favorite measure of inflation rising to 2.7pc to end this year from a prior forecast for 2.4pc. Policymakers see inflation falling to 2.2pc next year. They see GDP growth ending the year up an annual 2.4pc from a prior forecast of 2.3pc, with unemployment ending the year at 4.4pc, unchanged from the prior forecast. Regarding the inflationary shock of the US-Iran war, Powell said economists generally "look through energy shocks" and consider them transitory. He said the longer-term progress in bringing inflation down to the Fed's target of 2pc will be more accurately measured by how quickly the economy navigates the one-time impacts of Trump's tariffs. Still, Powell, said the net impact of the oil shock will "still be some downward pressure on spending and employment and upward pressure on inflation." Overall, he said, regarding the economy, "growth is solid, the inflation overshoot is mainly from goods (inflation) and the tariffs. The unemployment rate is little changed, with little growth in labor demand or supply," which he attributed largely to Trump's crackdown on immigrants. Buffeted by Trump's on-again/off-again tariff wars that make it harder for businesses to make long-term investment and hiring decisions, wide-ranging cuts to the federal bureaucracy and mounting deficit spending, the economy has shown clear signs of slowing. The US economy slowed to an annual 0.7pc pace in the fourth quarter of 2025, mostly on lower consumer and government spending prompted by the partial shutdown. It was sharply lower than the average 2.5pc pace in the first nine months of the year. Job growth slowed to about 247,000 in 2025, down from an estimated 1.5mn in 2024, according to Labor Department data. Powell, whose term in office expires on 15 May, said he would stay on as a Fed chair until his successor, former Fed governor and Trump nominee Kevin Warsh, is confirmed by the Senate. He added that he would also stay on at the board of governors of the Fed until a Justice Department criminal investigation into his congressional testimony regarding cost overruns at a Fed building project is "well and truly over with transparency and finality." A federal judge last week overturned Justice subpoenas related to the case, saying the purpose of the probe was to pressure Powell to lower rates or step down before his time in office expires in May. Justice has appealed the ruling. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Attacks on UAE energy assets increase as war broadens

18/03/26

Attacks on UAE energy assets increase as war broadens

Dubai, 18 March (Argus) — Iran and its regional proxies have stepped up attacks on Mideast Gulf energy infrastructure. The latest attacks in the UAE came after Tehran vowed retaliation against the country for hosting US attacks on Iran's Kharg island. Repeated drone strikes on Fujairah port have exposed the vulnerability of the UAE's main oil storage and bunkering hub. An attack on Tuesday, 17 March started a fire and disrupted terminal operations, according to authorities. No injuries were reported, while market sources said at least two terminals were affected, forcing some berths to close and vessels to move to anchorage. The latest strike came only a day after a fire in the Fujairah industrial zone halted oil loadings, and followed a drone attacks on 14 March that damaged at least two crude storage tanks. On Monday 16 March, operations at Abu Dhabi's Shah gas field were suspended after a drone attack caused a fire at the site. This appeared to be the first direct hit on an upstream asset in the UAE. The field, jointly operated by state-owned Adnoc and US firm Occidental Petroleum, is located 210 km southwest of Abu Dhabi near the Saudi border, in an increasingly exposed energy corridor. Saudi Aramco's 1mn b/d Shaybah oil field was also targeted by drones for three consecutive days since March 7 . Shah is one of the world's largest sour gas developments and Adnoc said in May it was exploring raising its capacity to 1.85bn ft³/d from 1.45bn ft³/d. The site also accounts for around 5pc of global sulphur production. The attacks on Shah and Fujairah's terminals underline how the conflict is spilling across the UAE's energy sector, from storage and export infrastructure to upstream production assets, as the US Iran moves into its third week. The escalation comes after US strikes on more than 90 military targets on Iran's Kharg Island on 13 March, after which Tehran said the weapons had been fired from the UAE, including from a location very close to Dubai .Trump later threatened to target energy infrastructure on the island to force Tehran to reopen the strait of Hormuz, though the initial strikes avoided oil facilities at Iran's main crude export hub. Published official figures suggest the UAE has come under more attacks than several of its Gulf peers since the war began on 28 February. The UAE said its air defences have encountered at least 304 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles and 1,627 drones. That compares with 178 ballistic missiles and 384 drones intercepted by Kuwait, and 106 ballistic missiles and 176 drones by Bahrain. In neighbouring Iraq, the Majnoon oil field in the Basrah province was also targeted in recent days, according to state news agency Ina. The field is one of Iraq's giant oilfields, and officials have previously said output is around 240,000 b/d with plans to raise capacity to 450,000 b/d. The bulk of recent attacks has focused on refining and storage infrastructure. A fire broke out at an unidentified facility in Adnoc's 817,000 b/d Ruwais refining complex on March 10, while Saudi Aramco's 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery on the country's east coast was targeted twice that week, on March 2 and March 4. Bahrain's 405,000 b/d Sitra refinery and Kuwait's 346,000 b/d Mina al-Ahmadi refinery have also come under attack. The conflict has not been one-sided, with Israel also hitting Iranian oil facilities, including storage depots in and around Tehran, according to state media . By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil’s central bank cuts target rate to 14.75pc

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