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N Dakota perks up on widening Brent-WTI spread

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil
  • 19/03/26

A widening spread between US and international oil prices has "certainly" caught the attention of North Dakota's regulators, but capitalizing on it would require producers to switch tack.

North Dakota producers pumped out 1.16mn b/d of oil in January, down by 13,000 b/d from the same month 2025, the state's Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) said on Thursday, as both winter weather and low prices hampered production.

But a sharp increase in oil prices on account of the US-Iran war, and the subsequent supply shortages, has suggested a rebound could be afoot for theUS' third-largest producing state. State regulators indicated that potential outcome, but only if prices remain elevated.

The price of May Brent — the main global benchmark for waterborne shipments — settled at $107.38/bl on Wednesday, compared with $95.46/bl for the May WTI contract. This spread of $11.92/bl between the two benchmarks is a near-doubling of the $6.03/bl recorded on 12 March and represents a growing uplift for volumes that can reach markets connected to global prices, including the US west and east coasts.

"That spread certainly has my attention and I'm sure it has the market's attention of whether or not we could see incremental North Dakota barrels starting to feed into those US refineries," North Dakota Pipeline Authority director Justin Kringstad said Thursday.

Meaningful changes in capital spending for operators could increase output, but additional flows would likely lag by 6-12 months, he added.

"At what point do operators have confidence that the price environment is going to be somewhat elevated to the point where it would justify increased capital, across not only in North Dakota, but the US?" asked Kringstad.

Refiners on the west and east coasts imported 230,000 b/d and 84,000 b/d, respectively, from the Mideast Gulf in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Any increased flows to those markets from North Dakota would need to be done using rail, which adds another lay of complexity.

An increase in output would be a reversal in strategy for a number of companies, which only weeks ago were making plans to dial down activities in North Dakota. In January, weak oil prices prompted plans by Continental Resources, one of the largest oil producer in the state, to take its drilling rigs from three to zero.


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