EIA further lowers US coal power 2-year outlook

Spanish Market: Coal, Electricity
07/04/26

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has further reduced its US coal-fired power outlook for 2026 and 2027, expecting coal to lose market share to upcoming renewable resource additions.

The agency now projects domestic coal generation will total 680.5bn kWh this year and 657.5bn kWh in 2027, both of which would be down from 2025's generation of 732.7bn kWh, according to EIA's monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday. Last month, EIA forecast 682.7bn kWh of coal power would be dispatched in the US in 2026 and 664bn kWh in 2027.

Specifically, EIA reduced expectations for US coal generation in the first half of this year and in January-June 2027. EIA also lowered projections for overall US generation during some quarters of this year and next but still expects dispatch across the nation to rise by 1.2pc in 2026 and by 3.4pc in 2027. Coal's share of the US' generating fuel mix will fall to 16pc this year and 15pc in 2027 from 17pc in 2025.

Coal bore the brunt of the decreases in heating demand at the start of this year, with coal-fired generation in January falling by 13pc, according to a previous EIA report. The agency estimated on Tuesday that coal generation for the first quarter as a whole dropped by 9.1pc from a year earlier to 175.7bn kWh.

The reduced outlook for coal generation at least partly reflects planned coal plant retirements. EIA expects the nation's electric coal generating capacity to shrink by around 3.8pc this year. But some of that capacity may be kept on line at least into 2027.

Last week, Wisconsin utility We Energies further delayed the retirement of the two remaining coal units at its Oak Creek power plant, extending operations beyond the end of this year and into 2027. In addition, the US Department of Energy continues to renew emergency orders issued at eight coal units that had previously been scheduled to retire last year, and retirement plans at other coal units scheduled to close in the next few years may also be subject to change.

Still, EIA expects new renewable generating resources will displace at least a portion of coal's market share to meet the nation's increasing energy needs.

The agency projects around 68.9GW of new solar capacity will come on line between 2026-27, and that solar generation will rise by 17pc this year and by another 21pc the following year.

New wind and battery storage generating capacity also are expected to come on line in the US over the next two years. And EIA projects wind generation to rise on the year by 5.4pc in 2026 and by 6.8pc in 2027.

US natural gas generation is expected to inch up to 1.704 trillion kWh in 2026 from 1.702 trillion kWh last year before rising to 1.777 trillion kWh next year.

EIA projects US coal consumption will follow a similar downward trajectory as domestic coal generation, causing power plant inventories in the first half of this year to increase at a faster rate than they had a year earlier. From January-June, EIA expects electric power sector coal stockpiles to rise by 3mn short tons/month (2.72mn metric tonnes/month). In the same period of 2025, inventories grew by 2mn st/month.

But by the second half of this year, coal inventories in the electric power sector are projected to grow by 1mn st/month, aligning with the rate in July-December 2025.

By the end of the year, US power plants are expected to hold around 119.9mn st of coal on site, up from the 109.5mn st stockpiled at the end of last year. Inventories are projected to continue to edge up to 123.7mn st by the end of 2027.

On the international side, the agency's outlook for coal shipped out of the US to seaborne destinations was little changed from its report in March, when it said that sustained disruptions to shipping through the strait of Hormuz and to global LNG trade might lift coal exports.

EIA currently expects thermal coal exports to rise to 44.6mn st in 2026, up from from 42.5mn st last year, before sliding to 43.4mn st in 2027. US metallurgical coal exports will increase to 53.4mn st this year and 54.2mn next year from 50.1mn st in 2025, the agency projected.

Last month, EIA expected US steam coal exports to total 43.8mn st in 2026 and 43.6mn in 2027, and metallurgical coal exports were projected at 53.5mn st this year and 54.5mn st next year.

By Anna Harmon

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13/04/26

France pushes for electrification on Mideast Gulf war

London, 13 April (Argus) — French prime minister Sebastien Lecornu has called for rapid electrification in response to the rise in fossil fuel prices caused by the Middle East war, and unveiled new measures to reach the goal. "As long as we depend on crude and gas we will continue to pay for others' wars," he said on Friday, 10 April presenting his electrification plan that the government began working on before the Iran crisis. France will double its annual spending on electrification to €10bn ($11.8bn) from €5.5bn, Lecornu said on 10 April. For residential heating, gas boilers will be banned in new buildings from the end of the year. Heating systems relying solely on gas were already de facto banned in new builds, and hybrid systems were becoming increasingly less common. The government will also choose 100 local areas to put on a "zero gas" trajectory by 2030. It aims to reduce gas consumption by 85 TWh/yr by 2030, or roughly a quarter of current consumption. The government wants to install 1mn heat pumps a year by 2030. Sales previously reached this level over 2021-23 before falling back, and French president Emmanuel Macron in 2023 announced a previous target to reach 1mn heat pumps produced in France each year by 2027. The government also wants two-thirds of new vehicles to be electric by 2030, compared with 28pc in March, a record high. And French manufacturers should build 400,000 EVs a year by 2027, and 1mn by 2030, up from about 200,000 last year. A new subsidised EV leasing scheme covering 50,000 vehicles will be introduced, alongside an existing scheme that leases 50,000 vehicles/yr to people on low incomes. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU eyes gas filling and oil stock co-ordination

13/04/26

EU eyes gas filling and oil stock co-ordination

Brussels, 13 April (Argus) — EU-wide co-ordination of gas storage filling and oil stock releases are among measures the European Commission will present on 22 April to tackle the energy crisis, said commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Monday. Von der Leyen said bloc-wide co-ordination of gas storage filling is aimed at preventing member states from competing against each other, and co-ordinated oil stock releases are intended to achieve the largest possible effect on markets. The bloc's fossil fuel import bill has increased by more than €22bn ($25.8bn) since the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February, von der Leyen said after discussions with EU commissioners. She said the "smallest" part of energy costs comes from the emissions trading system (ETS). Von der Leyen will "shortly" consult with EU states on updated ETS benchmarks using "all the flexibilities" the legal text allows, she said. The commission is "on track" to present the full review of the ETS in July, and will put forward legal proposals on electricity taxes and grid charges in May, with an "ambitious" new target on electrification. "The grim reality is that fossil fuels will remain the most expensive options in the years to come," von der Leyen said. She added that renewables and nuclear together now account for over 70pc of EU electricity generation. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Vietnam leans on coal-power as US-Iran war escalates

13/04/26

Vietnam leans on coal-power as US-Iran war escalates

Singapore, 13 April (Argus) — Vietnam's reliance on coal-fired generation increased in March on stronger electricity demand, with coal output dwarfing other power sources while the Middle East conflict intensified energy security concerns. The southeast Asian nation's coal-fired output was at 16.09TWh last month, up by 44pc from February — marking its sharpest month-on-month increase in two years and underscoring a push to secure stable power supplies since the outbreak of the war in late February. Coal-fired output was also up by 1pc on the year in March, and accounted for 56pc of total generation, the highest since mid-2025, according to data from state-owned utility EVN. The month-on-month jump was amplified by the nine-day lunar new year holiday in February. Vietnam's heavier reliance on coal-fired generation is in line with earlier directive to government departments and utilities to bolster coal stocks and prepare for a harsher dry season ahead . The country has been active in the seaborne coal market lately, even though the US/Israel–Iran conflict has pushed up delivered costs across the wider energy basket, boosting seaborne coal prices and making alternatives such as imported LNG expensive. With gas-fired capacity limited, coal-based power continues to anchor Vietnam's electricity system as the country's economic growth trajectory also supports power demand. Vietnam likely imported 4.1mn t of thermal coal in March, up from 2.8mn t in February, but down from 5.2mn t a year earlier, data from analytics firm Kpler show. Output from gas-fired utilities totalled 2.1 TWh, up 7pc on the year, the data show. Gas- and gasoil-fuelled turbines together accounted for about 7pc of total electricity generation. This represents only a small share of installed capacity, underscoring its limited role in meeting demand growth. Hydropower output rose to 4.96TWh in March, up 11pc on the year and also higher than February's 4.08TWh, the data show. Wind power output edged down on the month in line with typical seasonal patterns, while electricity imports increased modestly but continued to account for a limited share of total supply. Quarterly mix Coal-power output was little changed on the year at 40.64TWh in the January-March quarter, with the 14-22 February holiday weighing on coal burn and industrial and residential power demand. Coal-fired generation during the quarter was up from 30.22TWh in the fourth quarter last year, the data show. The increase in coal-fired generation was reflected in the country's recent demand for seaborne coal. It likely imported 10.29mn t of thermal coal in the first quarter, up from 8.31mn t in October-December 2025, according to Kpler estimates. The country's hydro-fired generation rose to 14.92TWh in the first quarter, up from 13.76TWh from a year earlier, the data show. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Governors tell PJM to make data centers pay

10/04/26

Governors tell PJM to make data centers pay

Houston, 10 April (Argus) — A bipartisan group of governors is pressing PJM Interconnection to design its proposed reliability backstop auction so that new data centers directly bear the cost of new generating capacity. The governors call for consumer protections to be embedded in PJM's forthcoming filing to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), arguing that cost causation, not pooled markets, should govern how the grid responds to fast growing power demand from data centers, according to a letter sent 9 April to PJM chief executive David Mills. PJM, the largest independent grid operator in the country covering 13 states and Washington, DC, has proposed a "reliability backstop auction" to address a looming shortfall of power supply as data centers and other large new loads drive demand beyond what the region's capacity market has been able to secure. For the first time, PJM failed to meet its reserve requirement in the 2027-28 capacity auction even as the price paid to power plants to reserve generation capacity soared by triple digits. The grid operator now projects a potential 50–60GW capacity gap over the next decade, driven primarily by large-load growth and long lead times for new generation and transmission. The backstop auction is intended as a one-off mechanism to procure capacity quickly enough to preserve reliability while broader market reforms are developed. The governors are pressing PJM to assign backstop costs directly to new data centers wherever possible and calling for protections against stranded costs, warning that consumers must not be left on the hook if data center projects default or scale back. "PJM should develop strong stranded-cost protection mechanisms to ensure consumers and other PJM members are fully protected," the letter states, noting the request aligns with the White House's Ratepayer Protection Pledge, under which participating tech firms commit to pay for power supply and delivery infrastructure whether they use it or not. The governors urge PJM to remain flexible on near-term resource eligibility, particularly for the 2027-28 delivery year, given long construction times and looming reliability gaps. "PJM must be technology-neutral and inclusive of all resources that can meet unforced capacity needs today," the letter said. The letter was signed by the governors of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia, as well as the mayor of Washington, DC. By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU rules out reopening methane regulation

10/04/26

EU rules out reopening methane regulation

Brussels, 10 April (Argus) — The European Commission will offer "flexibilities", but will not amend or reopen the bloc's methane emissions regulation, although it will issue non-binding recommendations, it said. "We're not planning to reopen or amend the methane regulation. This would bring more uncertainty at this stage," commission energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said. The regulation clearly states that implementation shall not endanger EU security of supply, she added. "This is obviously extremely important right now," Itkonen added. Commission officials are working on a recommendation to EU member states to ensure a simple system to demonstrate compliance, and a separate recommendation to ensure uniform and co-ordinated implementation of penalties that does not endanger energy security. "Non-binding recommendations are a helpful signal, but on their own they will not resolve the methane regulation's underlying design flaws, which are creating barriers for EU importers," Eurogas secretary general Andreas Guth told Argus . Consistent implementations across all 27 EU member states is not guaranteed and takes time, he added. EU refiners and fossil fuel importers last month warned that without changes to the regulation the EU would risk up to 43pc, or 114bn m³, of the bloc's 2024 gas imports and 87pc of crude oil imports, or 9.8mn b/d, based on 2024 volumes, being non-compliant in 2027–29. EU officials are in talks with refiners and importers, but declined to comment on industry projections that the methane regulation could lead to supply risk in 2027–29. "We fully support reducing methane emissions," IOGP Europe managing director Francois-Regis Mouton told Argus , adding that non-binding recommendations and guidance are not enough for legal certainty. Mouton called for the methane regulation to be paused while the commission proposes changes to simplify the regulation. Industry is expected to urge EU energy ministers to take action next week. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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