The energy supply shock sparked by the US-Israel war against Iran and the uncertainty over the conflict's duration have forced the IMF to change its quarterly outlook for global economy by outlining scenarios that range from bad to worse.
Even with a fragile truce in place through 21 April, "some damage is already done, and the downside risks remain elevated," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said on Tuesday. "The shock's ultimate magnitude will depend on the conflict's duration and scale — and how quickly energy production and shipment normalize once hostilities end."
The IMF's World Economic Outlook pegs global growth at 3.1pc in 2026, a downgrade of 0.2 percentage points from its January outlook. The IMF describes this as a "reference forecast", rather than a baseline case, highlighting the unpredictable trajectory of the war. In the reference scenario, disruptions from the shut-in of Mideast Gulf production and the closure of the strait of Hormuz would fade by July.
A longer shutdown of the strait of Hormuz and additional damage to Mideast Gulf upstream and refining capacity would result in global growth slowing to 2.5pc this year. In this adverse scenario, oil and gas prices would remain above pre-war levels well into 2027.
The most severe scenario analyzed by the IMF, in which oil and gas supply disruption lasts into 2027, would reduce growth this year to 2pc, the IMF said.
