Demand for conventional marine fuels in Rotterdam fell by 28pc on the year in the first quarter of 2026, after the Netherlands implemented the EU's revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) at its ports. The decline also reflects disruption linked to the US-Iran war.
Market participants reported a drop in Rotterdam bunker demand even before the war, as some shipowners shifted fuelling to neighbouring ports to avoid price premiums created by the Netherlands' unilateral transposition of RED III marine mandates from 1 January.
Sales of very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) fell most sharply, down by 44pc from a year earlier to about 440,000t in the first quarter. High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) volumes dropped by 25pc to about 619,000t, while ultra-low sulphur fuel oil (ULSFO) sales fell by 13pc. Marine gasoil (MGO) and marine diesel oil (MDO) demand declined by 8pc on the year to around 361,000t.
Some shipowners instead opted to bunker in neighbouring Antwerp, which forms part of the ARA hub and offers lower conventional bunker prices without requiring route changes. Others prioritised bunkering at Gothenburg in Sweden or ports in Germany, market participants said.
Price differentials supported the shift. Between early February and the end of March, MGO dob Rotterdam prices averaged $12.75/t higher than the Antwerp equivalent, while VLSFO dob Rotterdam held an average premium of roughly $14.50/t over the same period.
Tighter global supply has added further pressure. The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz sharply reduced bunker availability in Singapore, increasing competition for VLSFO and MGO cargoes that would otherwise be exported to the ARA hub.
After the start of the US-Iran war, Rotterdam MGO prices rose by 75pc to an average of about $1,186/t in March, while VLSFO prices climbed by 57pc to an average of $710.50/t.
