Adds Bimco comment in final paragraph
Iran's announcement that the strait of Hormuz is open to commercial vessels is unlikely to trigger an immediate pickup in tanker traffic through the waterway, as shipowners remain wary of security risks and the terms of passage remain unclear, market sources told Argus.
Iran said on Friday that the strait would be open for commercial shipping for the duration of the US-Iran ceasefire, following a halt to fighting in Lebanon. But the limited timeframe and lack of detail are likely to deter shipowners from resuming transits straightaway, participants said.
Owners would probably still have to "co-ordinate with Iran and adhere to their rules, unless of course the conditions are specified and more clarity appears, in which case more ships would consider the transit", one market participant said.
Questions also remain around routing and tolls. Iran said passage would be permitted on the "co-ordinated route as already announced", which is likely to refer to the channel between the islands of Qeshm and Larak. This could imply that Iran will continue charging transit tolls.
Transits through the strait have continued despite the US naval blockade on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, which President Donald Trump has said will remain in place until peace talks with Iran are concluded. But the blockade is focused on the mouth of the Gulf of Oman rather than the strait itself, raising concerns that vessels exiting the waterway could still be intercepted further downstream, participants said.
At least 10 vessels crossed the strait of Hormuz with their AIS transponders active in the past 24 hours, most of them westbound into the Mideast Gulf. Of those crossings, three were eastbound. These included the Shalamar, a Pakistani-flagged Aframax tanker that loaded at Das Island on 12 April and is heading to Karachi, according to Kpler data.
The announcement about reopening the strait may be aimed primarily at allowing vessels already in the Gulf to exit, easing vessel availability constraints, rather than encouraging ships to enter for new business, according to one market participant.
The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) is assessing Iran's announcement for compliance with freedom of navigation and use of the IMO-recognised traffic separation scheme.
Shipping association Bimco, meanwhile, said the announcement does little to change the risk outlook for vessels. Trump's claim that the strait is "fully open" is inaccurate, as the status of mine threats within the traffic separation scheme remains unclear, Jakob Larsen, Bimco's chief safety and security officer, said. The scheme has not been declared safe for transit, and shipping companies should "consider avoiding the area", he added.
