Black Sea wheat pushes Australian wheat out of SE Asia

Spanish Market: Agriculture
05/05/26

Buyers of lower protein content milling wheat for shipment to southeast Asia have increasingly turned to Black Sea origins, as Australian Standard White wheat with at least 9pc protein content (ASW9) has become too expensive, while offers of Argentinian milling wheat have grown scarce.

Sellers have been offering Black Sea 11.5pc protein content milling wheat for June shipment to Indonesia at around $283-285/t cfr this week, at least $10/t lower than corresponding ASW9 offers. This premium is considerably wider than the $5/t premium which most buyers are prepared to pay for ASW9 over Black Sea 11.5pc milling wheat.

While offers of Black Sea wheat are at least $7/t above buyers' bids, trades around $280/t in recent weeks point towards stronger potential buying interest than for ASW9, where bids and offers are at least $15/t apart.

ASW9 prices have drawn support from limited farmer selling and a firm Australian dollar against the US dollar. The Australian dollar has neared its strongest against the US dollar in almost four years, at A$1.39:$1 on 4 May.

As for Argentinian wheat, the country's crop this year had a significantly higher share of feed wheat than historical averages. About 79pc of the crop falls under 11pc protein content in 2025-26 (December-November) marketing year, compared with 20pc in 2024-25 and 7pc in 2023-24, according to Argentina's agricultural industry report Argentine Wheat. Wheat export flows from Argentina have also slowed as corn and soybean exports, harvested around March–April, absorb much of the country's grain export capacity.

In contrast to milling wheat, sellers offering ASW with no minimum protein content, which often trades as feed wheat, could find buyers in southeast Asia, particularly in the Philippines, where Australia has an import tariff advantage, market participants said. Unlike the milling wheat market, feed wheat supplies from the Black Sea region have been scarce throughout the 2025-26 (July-June) season, narrowing the spread between the spot prices of feed and milling grade wheat (see chart).

By Anna Harouni

Spread between spot prices for milling and feed wheat $/t

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