European jet premiums lowest since before US-Iran war

Spanish Market: Oil products
07/05/26

Apparent discussions between the US and Iran on reopening the strait of Hormuz pushed European jet fuel spreads to their narrowest since before the war began, adding to existing pressure from prompt supply stability. But outright prices in Europe must remain high to continue attracting that supply.

Argus assessed jet fuel cargoes delivered to northwest Europe at a $99.50/t premium to front-month Ice gasoil futures on 6 May, falling by about a third on the day. Refining margins slimmed to below $60/bl. Both are the narrowest since 27 February, the day before the US-Iran war broke out.

US president Donald Trump on 6 May said a deal was under discussion with Iran to reopen the strait of Hormuz and end the US blockade of Iranian ports. Front-month Ice gasoil futures dropped by more than 8pc on the day, pushing outright jet fuel prices to $1,287/t, the lowest since the first week of the war.

Jet fuel premiums have steadily fallen for more than two weeks. This reflects greater confidence about prompt supply in Europe, thanks to arrivals from the US and Nigeria, domestic refinery output and heavy reliance on inventories, all of which are helping to offset the loss of Mideast Gulf supply until demand ramps up in summer.

Flat price high to pull supply

But outright prices remain more than 50pc higher than pre-war levels, reflecting global undersupply of jet fuel until flows through the strait of Hormuz return.

Europe must compete with other regions, such as east Africa, for the remaining supply. Airline executives and market participants have warned the cost of securing jet fuel will be significant.

Airlines appear committed to maintaining supply, but not all will be able to handle such steep fuel costs. This proved fatal for the US' Spirit Airlines, which permanently closed on 2 May. Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary said some European airlines could meet a similar fate if prices remain high.

By Amaar Khan

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06/05/26

Kenya lowers fuel standards to ease supply access

Dubai, 6 May (Argus) — Kenya has temporarily lowered diesel and gasoline quality standards to ease challenges in sourcing fuels because of the US-Iran war in the Middle East. Sulphur limits for gasoil and gasoline have been lowered to 50ppm from the 10ppm for six months from 1 May, according to Kenya's ministry of investments, trade and industry. The measure is introduced to ensure the stability of fuel imports while sourcing higher quality fuels proves difficult. It also allows Kenya to choose from a wider range of fuel suppliers. The policy will be reviewed at the end of the six-month period, or earlier if global supply conditions improve, the ministry said. This comes just a month after Kenya's energy ministry ordered the re-export of a gasoline cargo that may not have met regional fuel standard. The cargo was imported outside of the government-to-government agreements between Kenya and Mideast Gulf NOCs, under which Kenya sources majority of its diesel, gasoline and jet fuel from the Saudi state-controlled Aramco, and the UAE's state-owned Adnoc and Enoc. But supply security on this route has significantly deteriorated since Iran's de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz in March locked in Mideast Gulf production. Kenya sourced around 66pc of its diesel and 24pc of its gasoline imports from the Gulf in 2025, but received none of either from that region in April according to Kpler data. Kenya's reversion to importing lower quality fuels mirrors efforts of the wider east African region to ensure supply stability. Fuels have been arriving from unusual supply regions like the US or Nigeria to replace lost supplies from the Middle East, but this in turn reflects in higher retail prices. Diesel and gasoline prices surged in the latest monthly fuel price review done by Kenya's energy and petroleum regulatory authority EPRA on 14 April. The diesel price rose by 24pc on the month to 206.84 Kenyan shillings/l ($1.59/l), while gasoline price rose by 16pc to KSh206.97/l. EPRA cited the cost of imported products, which they said had risen by as much as 68pc for diesel and 42pc for gasoline between March and April. The price increase already accounts for the government's decision to cut value added tax on both fuels to cushion consumers from the price surge. "The ministry [of energy and petroleum] wishes to reassure Kenyans that country has adequate fuel stocks and there should be no cause for alarm", said Kenya's cabinet secretary Opiyo Wanday on 6 May. But the country may struggle to replace all lost supplies from the Mideast Gulf if the closure of the strait of Hormuz continues. By Ieva Paldaviciute Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK bitumen imports increase in 1Q

06/05/26

UK bitumen imports increase in 1Q

London, 6 May (Argus) — UK bitumen imports increased year-on-year to 225,000t in the first quarter from 191,000t, Kpler data show. This rise came despite a spike in bitumen and crude oil values after the US-Iran war started on 28 February. Market participants attribute this to term supply deals struck at a fixed price by regional players before February, which offset the impact of rising crude prices. UK domestic bitumen prices, which were assessed by Argus at £345/t ($470/t) delivered on 27 February, increased to £535/t delivered by the end of April. But this increase was less than other key European markets including Germany, France and Italy, where price spikes were much sharper. The UK bitumen market is heavily reliant on imports. The country has just one bitumen-producing refinery — the 24,000 b/d Shell-Nynas joint venture at Eastham in northwest England. Last year, the country's bitumen throughput fell to to 322,000t, its lowest since 1995. After the start of the Iran war, regional market participants expressed concerns over tightened crude supply into key bitumen producing refineries that supply the UK. But flows from Shell's 404,000 b/d Pernis refinery — the UK's primary source of bitumen — remained strong in March and April. Pernis exported 59,000t in March to the UK and 57,000t in April, Kpler data show, significantly up from 16,000t and 8,000t in March and April last year. UK bitumen buyers have also reduced their reliance on north German refineries this year. The Brunsbuettel refinery only returned to full capacity in March after being hit by a fire in October. German first quarter exports to the UK more than halved from 26,000t to 11,000t, according to Kpler data. The tighter supply could change in the coming weeks. Venezuelan crude was recently unloaded in Nynas' 13,900 b/d Gothenburg refinery, although this could not be confirmed. The plant also imported roughly 60,000t of Venezuelan high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) on 25 April aboard the 112,119dwt Seacalm, the first such supply since 2019. The 6,712dwt Bitpower loaded a bitumen cargo in Gothenburg on 4 May, for delivery into a terminal in Dundee, UK, for 7 May. By Navneet Vyasan UK imports.pdf k t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Economic recovery lifts German diesel demand in 2025

06/05/26

Economic recovery lifts German diesel demand in 2025

Hamburg, 6 May (Argus) — German diesel demand rose in 2025 for the first time in six years, signalling a recovery in industrial activity after a prolonged period of economic weakness, latest data from the Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control (Bafa) show. But the current conflict in the Middle East could yet reverse this nascent trend. The rise in diesel demand reflects a modest rebound in economic activity. After two consecutive years of recession, Germany's economy returned to growth last year, expanding by 0.2pc, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The downturn had been triggered by Russia's war against Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on the Russian energy sector, which pushed energy prices sharply higher across Europe — and especially in Germany. Higher costs weighed heavily on domestic industry, with the chemicals sector particularly affected. As a result, Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.9pc in 2023 and by 0.5pc in 2024 (see chart) . Prolonged economic weakness over this period also depressed diesel demand. Lower industrial output reduces transport needs for intermediate goods and finished products, cutting truck movements and, in turn, diesel consumption. This pattern is evident in Bafa fuel data. After the Covid-19 crisis caused a sharp fall in diesel demand in 2020 and 2021, consumption fell again in 2022 and declined further in 2023 and 2024. The increase recorded in 2025 therefore marks the first reversal in diesel demand since 2019 (see chart). It appears unlikely, however, that the recovery will be sustained this year in the wake of the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has driven a sharp rise in energy prices since late February. GDP in the first quarter of 2026 rose by 0.5pc year on year, according to Destatis, but the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWE) says the performance was largely driven by positive momentum before the war started. Destatis' truck mileage index and data from the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) both point to a marked deterioration in economic conditions in March. BMWE attributes the slowdown mainly to higher energy and raw material costs, compounded by disruptions to supply chains for intermediate goods. By Johannes Guhlke German Diesel inland deliveries German GDP year on year change Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UAE's Fujairah bunker sales rebound in April

06/05/26

UAE's Fujairah bunker sales rebound in April

Dubai, 6 May (Argus) — Sales of marine fuels at the UAE port of Fujairah, the world's fourth-largest bunkering port, located outside the strait of Hormuz, rose in April from their lowest ever monthly level in March, according to Argus data. Argus compiles daily data on deals from Fujairah suppliers, traders and buyers, capturing up to a quarter of the market, offering a snapshot of broader market trends. The volume of bunker sales in deals collected for assessment by Argus rose to 57,000t or 910 t/d last month from around 29,000t or 460 t/d in March. April's total is still the second lowest ever monthly level, according to records. For comparison, in February, Argus collected 162,000t or 2,700 t/d of deals data. Very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) accounted for around 37,000t or 1,760 t/d of sales in April, up from 21,000t or 1,000 t/d of sales in March. High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) sales rose on the month to 18,000t or 870 t/d from 7,000t or 336 t/d, while traded volumes of marine gasoil rose to 2,100t or 100 t/d from 855t or 40 t/d. Sales rebounded after US president Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension to the US-Iran ceasefire in early April, encouraging more vessels to call at the port for refuelling. But the precarious security and supply situation, as well as high war risk insurance premiums, have been forcing regular bunker buyers to seek refuelling in other regions such as India, Sri Lanka and African ports. A fall in marine fuel cargo imports into Fujairah and the suspension of local bunker fuels production have been tightening the availability. Some suppliers have run out of stocks, with marine fuels mostly sold from whatever is left in storage tanks and barges. A recent drone attack on the port's storage and loading facilities has raised fresh concerns. Early May deals data shows bunker buying activity to have fallen, with only two deals for around 2,000t of marine fuels submitted to Argus for assessment in the first three trading days. One trader described the demand and supply situation as "dead and dry". "We receive enquiries, but they get repeatedly postponed," a Fujairah supplier said. By Elshan Aliyev Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia announces $7.7bn fuel security package

06/05/26

Australia announces $7.7bn fuel security package

Sydney, 6 May (Argus) — Australia's upcoming budget will include a A$10.7bn ($7.7bn) package aimed at strengthening national fuel and fertilizer security, including the creation of a permanent, government-owned fuel reserve of about 1bn litres (6.29mn bl) and an increase in the country's minimum stockholding obligation (MSO). The package is intended to support the increase of the MSO by about 10 days, as part of wider efforts to increase the government-owned stockpile of gasoil, jet fuel and gasoline to 50 days, the federal government said today. The government will consult on implementation of the reserve, including its ability to underwrite or purchase fuel, support storage infrastructure and trade stocks during severe or prolonged supply disruptions. Of the total funding, A$7.5bn will be allocated to establish a facility to increase fuel and fertilizer supply and storage through financial support mechanisms such as loans, equity, guarantees, insurance and price support. A further A$3.2bn will be used to fund the government-owned fuel reserve, which will focus on addressing regional stockouts. The increased MSO will be supported by A$34.7mn over four years for the ongoing management of Australia's fuel security. The budget will also include A$10mn to support feasibility studies into new or expanded fuel refining capacity, to be co-funded with state and territory governments. At least one proposal already has backing from both federal and state governments to assess the potential for additional refining capacity, prime minister Anthony Albanese said today. The government said the changes will be implemented progressively and supported by investment in new and refurbished fuel storage infrastructure. Further details of the Australian Fuel Security and Resilience package will be released with the federal budget next week. Australia held 33 days of gasoil, 43 days of gasoline and 28 days of jet fuel stocks as of 28 April, energy minister Chris Bowen said on 2 May. Australian fuel importers under the MSO are required to hold 32 days' supply of gasoil, and 27 days of gasoline and jet fuel, while local refiners, Viva Energy and Ampol, are required to hold 20 days of gasoil and 24 days of gasoline and jet fuel. A 20pc reduction to the MSO is currently in place, first implemented in March to allow more supply of gasoil and gasoline in response to panic buying-induced shortages. The centre right Coalition opposition said last week it would seek to double the country's mandated fuel stocks if it returns to government after the next federal election. An A$800mn energy security package would lift the MSO to 60 days by early 2028 and expand domestic storage capacity by at least 6.29mn bl, opposition leader Angus Taylor said on 28 April, adding that the policy would increase retail fuel prices by "about a cent a litre". Western Australia and Victoria have already established their own strategic gasoil reserves, while other states are considering similar measures. State governments have also begun amending legislation in anticipation of a worsening fuel outlook, with Western Australia amending its Fuel, Energy and Power Resources Act on 5 May and South Australia proposing legislation to expand its authority to impose fuel rationing on 4 May. Australia is currently operating under level two of its National Fuel Emergency Response framework, under which national fuel supply remains functional but localised disruptions are occurring. By Tom Woodlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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European jet premiums lowest since before US-Iran war

Flat price high to pull supply

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