Iran says its response to US 'reasonable, generous'

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Fertilizers, LPG, Natural gas, Oil products
11/05/26

Iran's foreign ministry said on Monday that Tehran's response to the latest US proposal to end the war was "reasonable" and "generous," pushing back against US president Donald Trump's characterisation of it as "totally unacceptable."

"Is our proposal for safe passage through the strait of Hormuz excessive? Is an important issue like re-establishing security and peace in the region, an irresponsible demand?" foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei asked, rhetorically.

"All we proposed were reasonable and responsible demands, and generous proposals, not only for Iran's national interests, but also for the good, stability and security of the region and the world," he said.

Trump overnight labelled the Iranian position as "totally unacceptable," dashing hopes of an imminent conclusion to the conflict.

Crude futures rose sharply in early trading today, with the front-month July Ice Brent contract hitting an intraday peak of $105.99/bl before coming off to trade just below $104/bl.

Trump last week said a peace deal under discussion with Iran would reopen the strait of Hormuz to navigation and lift the US blockade on Iranian trade. Baghaei today said the US' conditions continue to be "one-sided… and unreasonable".

The US has been highlighting the reopening of the strait of Hormuz, and a shuttering of Iran's nuclear capabilities, as its top conditions to bring the war to an end.

Washington is looking for Iran to put an end to its nuclear enrichment activities, and to hand over its stocks of around 400kg of highly-enriched uranium.

But Iran's priorities to end the war lie elsewhere, which has been complicating the diplomatic track.

"At this stage, our focus is on what is urgent," Baghaei said. "And what is urgent is ending the war in all its forms, including Lebanon and ensuring the safety and security of navigation through the [Mideast] Gulf and the strait of Hormuz… which includes stopping the illegal actions of the US against commercial ships."

"What decisions we make on the nuclear issue, on Iran's [highly enriched] materials and on issues related to enrichment activities is something we will discuss when the time is right," Baghaei said.

By Nader Itayim

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11/05/26

Second Saudi phosphates cargo transits Hormuz

London, 11 May (Argus) — The Mdl Toofan , which loaded 55,000t of MAP at Ras Al-Khair in late April, crossed the strait of Hormuz on 9-10 May, according to vessel tracking data from Kpler. The MAP is scheduled to arrive at Rio Grande, Brazil, on 5 June. This is the second phosphates cargo to cross the strait since the start of the US-Iran war at the end of February. Eight other vessels carrying phosphates loaded at Ras Al-Khair remain in the Gulf. By Adrien Seewald Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UAE's Opec exit raises questions as output plummets

11/05/26

UAE's Opec exit raises questions as output plummets

London, 11 May (Argus) — The UAE's departure from Opec has reinforced Saudi Arabia's already dominant leadership of the group, but it also presents an opportunity for other members, including smaller ones, to gain greater influence over policy decisions. The exit of the UAE from Opec and the wider Opec+ has shaken the alliance to the core and raised serious questions over the group's cohesion. It could even prompt others to reassess their membership in the group. But life outside Opec would be challenging. Most Opec members have historically relied on larger producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, to lead policy given its superior market knowledge and intelligence, in the expectation that its decisions will ultimately benefit all. The UAE was perhaps unique among the group in its ability to go it alone. Unlike most other members, it has a proven ability to rapidly deploy new production capacity. And no other member, apart from Saudi Arabia, has the sort of deep oil market knowledge that would allow it to successfully navigate global oil markets. Still, the importance of ensuring group cohesion could lend a greater voice to other members on policy decisions and potentially see Saudi Arabia adopt a more accommodating stance. After all, even the exit of a small African producer would present poor optics, particularly if it happens soon after the UAE's departure. The chief candidates for a greater role in Opec, and by extension Opec+, are the group's other Mideast Gulf producers Iraq and Kuwait. Iraq remains Opec's second largest member and has ambitious plans to increase its production capacity from around 4.5mn b/d to 6mn b/d. While it has the reserves, the country has struggled to advance long-standing growth projects, including export capacity expansions, largely due to political instability. It is also paying the price of not building sufficient export infrastructure that would allow it to meaningfully bypass the strait of Hormuz. If Iraq is to play a more influential role within Opec, it may also have to assert greater control over production in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, which has long undermined its credibility in the group. Kuwait is also a major producer and one of the few members with significant spare production capacity. Before the effective closure of the strait, Kuwait was producing around 2.6mn b/d compared to its stated production capacity of about 3mn b/d. But while it has ambitious plans to boost capacity to 4mn b/d, recent additions have merely managed to counter natural decline. Its total reliance on the strait of Hormuz for its oil exports has also meant it has been one of the hardest hit members due to the closure of the waterway. Other members such as Algeria may also clamour for a greater role. While its production capacity is smaller, the country its politically stable and is located outside the increasingly precarious Mideast Gulf region. It also highly values its membership for the international recognition this brings — something that is even more important to smaller African members. The UAE's exit could even prompt Opec to speed up efforts to sign up new members. Opec+ crude output plummeted by 1.59mn b/d in April, Argus estimates. The drop left group production about 11mn b/d below pre-war levels and was mainly driven by further reductions in the Mideast Gulf as members had to shut in production due to the war and effective closure of the strait of Hormuz — their main export outlet (see table). Russia's output is also under pressure from Ukrainian attacks on its oil facilities. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Apr Mar* Target† ± target Opec 9 13.40 14.71 23.49 -10.09 Non-Opec 9 12.59 12.91 13.45 -0.86 Opec 18 25.99 27.62 36.94 -10.95 Total Opec+ 31.34 32.93 na na *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 Opec wellhead production mn b/d Apr Mar Target† ± target Saudi Arabia 6.32 7.00 10.17 -3.85 Iraq 1.40 1.70 4.30 -2.90 Kuwait 0.56 1.17 2.60 -2.04 UAE 2.02 1.90 3.43 -1.41 Algeria 1.00 0.98 0.98 0.02 Nigeria 1.57 1.45 1.50 0.07 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.30 0.26 0.28 0.02 Gabon 0.19 0.21 0.18 0.01 Equatorial Guinea 0.04 0.04 0.07 -0.03 Opec 9 13.40 14.71 23.49 -10.09 Iran 2.95 3.08 na na Libya 1.35 1.23 na na Venezuela 1.05 1.00 na na Total Opec 12^ 18.75 20.02 na na †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Note: UAE exit is effective from 1 May Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Apr Mar* Target† ± target Russia 9.00 9.20 9.64 -0.64 Oman 0.83 0.83 0.82 0.01 Azerbaijan 0.46 0.46 0.55 -0.09 Kazakhstan 1.72 1.80 1.58 0.14 Malaysia 0.35 0.35 0.40 -0.05 Bahrain 0.02 0.06 0.20 -0.18 Brunei 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 Sudan 0.01 0.01 0.06 -0.05 South Sudan 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.00 Total non-Opec 12.59 12.91 13.45 -0.86 *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran war counter-proposal 'totally unacceptable': Trump

11/05/26

Iran war counter-proposal 'totally unacceptable': Trump

Singapore, 11 May (Argus) — US president Donald Trump has deemed Iran's response to a plan to end the war "totally unacceptable", indicating there is no end in sight to the conflict yet. "I have just read the response from Iran's so-called 'Representatives'," Trump said in a social media post. "I don't like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" he said. Crude futures rose by about 4pc in Asian trading today. The front-month July Ice Brent contract rose to $105.32/bl at around 11:00 Singapore time (03:00 GMT), up by 3.9pc from the close on 8 May. US benchmark WTI rose even more sharply. The front-month June contract was at $99.68/bl, a gain of 4.5pc from 8 May. Trump on 6 May claimed that a peace deal that was under discussion with Iran would reopen the strait of Hormuz to navigation and lift the US blockade on Iranian trade. Iran's foreign ministry said it was still reviewing a US proposal, state news agency Isna said on the same day. But the US proposal "contains some unacceptable clauses", according to Tasnim news agency, which is affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran's counter-proposal has not been published, but the text emphasises the need to immediately end the war, lift US sanctions related to Iran's oil sales, end the maritime blockade of Iran, and ensure Iranian management of the strait of Hormuz if the US fulfils certain commitments, according to an informed source cited by Tasnim. "[The war] is not over because there's still nuclear material, enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran," Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised interview on CBS on 10 May. "There's still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled," he said. Previous statements from Washington and Tehran have outlined a possible agreement that would curb Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief for Tehran. But both sides have drawn red lines, with the US insisting on eliminating Iran's theoretical capacity to produce nuclear weapons, and Tehran emphasising continued control over the strait Hormuz. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Aramco 1Q profit jumps 26pc despite Hormuz disruption

10/05/26

Aramco 1Q profit jumps 26pc despite Hormuz disruption

Dubai, 10 May (Argus) — State-controlled Saudi Aramco said it sold more crude and refined products in the first quarter than in the same period last year, despite shipping disruption through the strait of Hormuz since late February. The company did not disclose volumes but said higher sales, combined with firmer crude and product prices, lifted revenue to $115bn from $108bn a year earlier. Adjusted profit rose by 26pc year on year to $33.6bn, exceeding the $31.16bn median of analysts' forecasts. The increased revenues came despite the US-Iran war causing severe disruption to Mideast Gulf oil flows through the strait of Hormuz during the final month of the quarter. The effective closure of the waterway has forced Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain to reduce exports of crude and products since the start of March, weighing on crude output. Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and, to a large extent, Iraq have shut in the largest volumes of crude production relative to total output, reflecting their near total dependence on the strait to export oil. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also shut in significant volumes, but to a lesser extent as a share of total production because both have pipelines that allow some exports to bypass the strait. The 7mn b/d East-West pipeline, which runs from the Abqaiq oil processing complex in eastern Saudi Arabia to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, has "reached its maximum capacity", Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said. "Our East-West pipeline... has proven itself to be a critical supply artery, helping to mitigate the impact of an energy shock and providing relief to customers affected by shipping constraints in the strait of Hormuz," Nasser said. Aramco did not disclose its oil and gas production for the quarter. Argus estimated Saudi crude output, including its share of production from the Saudi-Kuwaiti Neutral Zone, at 7mn b/d in March, down from 10.88mn b/d in February and 10.08mn b/d in January. This puts average Saudi crude output for the quarter at 9.32mn b/d, down from 10.03mn b/d in the previous quarter but up from 8.93mn b/d in the first quarter of 2025. The Saudi oil giant sold its crude at an average of $76.9/bl in the first quarter of 2026, marginally higher than $76.3/bl in the same three-month period in 2025. Aramco's board declared a base dividend of $21.9bn for the first quarter, up by 3.5pc from the corresponding period in 2025. The dividend will be paid in the second quarter. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Petrobras halts ops at 2 fertilizer units

09/05/26

Brazil's Petrobras halts ops at 2 fertilizer units

Sao Paulo, 9 May (Argus) — Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras halted fertilizer production at two of its recently-restarted units, the firm told Argus . The Araucaria Nitrogenados (Ansa) unit, in southern Parana state, has been halted since 30 April because of an "incident in the compressor room", Petrobras told Argus . The company said that ammonia sales have continued as usual and the timeframe for the fertilizer resumption "will be disclosed in due course". Ansa's operations had started on the same day after being shut since 2020. Ansa has production capacity of 720,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr of urea, 475,000 t/yr of ammonia, and 450,000 m³/yr of Arla 32, a heavy vehicle emissions-control product also known as AdBlue in Europe and DEF in the US. Operations are also halted at the Fabrica de Fertilizantes Nitrogenados (Fafen) unit, in northeastern Sergipe state, because a lack of power supply that damaged the unit's operational system. The damage will require maintenance and Petrobras expects operations to resume this month. Supplies were uninterrupted thanks to "existing factory inventories", Petrobras said. The company also highlighted that Brazil is in its offseason for urea purchases and that farmers are awaiting developments in the war in the Middle East, meaning domestic demand is reduced. Petrobras did not disclose for how long Fafen has been halted, but said that it was "producing continuously" before the power supply issue. It was operating at 90pc of its maximum capacity in early March, which amounts to 1,800 t/d of urea, Petrobras told Argus at that time. Fafen Sergipe restarted ammonia production on 31 December, marking the resumption of operations, Petrobras' chief executive Magda Chambriard said on social media in early January. The unit can produce up to 650,000 t/yr of urea, 450,000 t/yr of ammonia and 320,000 t/yr of ammonium sulphate. Fafen Bahia Another Fafen unit, in northeastern Bahia state, recently reduced output to enable maintenance in its pumping system, but production has since increased. Petrobras did not disclose the unit's current production rate. Petrobras estimates that the return of Fafen Bahia and Sergipe allowed the company to meet approximately 10pc of Brazil's urea market in the first quarter of 2026. All three units — Fafen Bahia, Fafen Sergipe and Ansa — went through "periods of hibernation", Petrobras said, alluding to the units' long periods of idleness. That led to degradation, the need for investment, and "as expected, required maintenance to improve reliability and operational continuity", Petrobras added. Petrobras halted activities at Ansa in 2020, following previous plans announced in 2017, which consisted of fully exiting non-strategic sectors, including fertilizers. Operations in Fafen Sergipe and Bahia had been idled since March 2024, when both were managed by the Brazilian chemical company Unigel. The decision to resume fertilizer operations is in line with Petrobras' strategic plan and Brazil's government national fertilizer plan, which aims to reduce the country's dependency on imports. Brazil consumed more than 49.1mn t of fertilizer in 2025, of which 88pc was imported, according to national fertilizer distributor's association Anda. By Renata Cardarelli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Iran says its response to US 'reasonable, generous'

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