19/05/26
Q&A: Core expects US coal demand increase
New York, 19 May (Argus) — While coal-fired generation in much of the US has
lagged year-earlier levels in 2026, there are opportunities for growth,
according to Core Natural Resources chief executive Jimmy Brock. In this Q&A,
conducted on the sidelines of the Eastern Fuel Buyers Conference in Florida on
14 May and edited for length and clarity, Brock talked about the company's
export strategy, domestic opportunities for coal, and how federal policy change
is shaping the company's outlook. Given the current geopolitical environment,
how does Core view its export strategy and related logistics? The growth for us
in the US is in the export markets; and it's primarily into Asia, Southeast
Asia, those countries [where] you want to bring people out of poverty, and it
gives us an opportunity to go there. But with that being said, I was asked this
morning [during a presentation at the Eastern Fuel Buyers Conference], what is
the API 2 pricing that you feel comfortable moving? Well, that's only one piece
of it. So, if the API 2 pricing is where it is today — around $115/metric tonne
(t), that's one piece of it. But if the API 2 pricing is $110/t or $115/t, and
the transportation cost to get it there is eating up a big part of that, then
that doesn't work. What prices does Core need now for bituminous coal exporting
to be profitable? We have all kinds of ranges of pricing. We know what our cost
to mine is. We know the rail transportation and the logistics behind it. So, it
all depends on where it's going, how it's getting there and what we feel
comfortable with. We don't want to be the only one that makes money in these
deals. We want our end-users to do well, because that's how you get long-term
contracts. So, it's really, it's hard to pinpoint pricing, and even on our
earnings calls, we give mostly ranges, other than some fixed costs. But if
you're asking me today, I would tell you, if you're looking at bituminous coal,
it's somewhere in the mid-$50s/short ton (st) to low-$60s/st [at the mine].
That's the range we would use. What are your thoughts on Powder River basin
(PRB) exports? Peabody Energy recently said it is testing exporting PRB coal
through the Port of Guaymas in Mexico. I think it remains to be seen. And again,
there's a lot of moving pieces to that. So, if you're going down to Guaymas in
Mexico, it depends on where is the origin of that [coal trip], where's the
end-user product at? And then is there demurrage, because those are expensive
every day, and you've got to figure all of that. Has Core considered it? We
absolutely did. To be honest with you, I would see that as more of an
opportunity for our high-calorific value (cv) thermal coals coming out of West
Elk than it would be for PRB. We don't export PRB coal. Most of ours is sold
domestically. It's a niche market. It goes in the west, Midwest, those areas, to
those utilities there. We don't export because 8,400 Btu/lb coal doesn't
transfer very well. Core has expanded West Elk coal shipments to a few eastern
US utilities. Do you see additional market opportunities for Colorado coal? West
Elk is a unique place. We've moved out of the E-seam into the B[-seam]. It's
going to give us an opportunity to produce at a better cost number and be more
consistent. That's what that mine needs. We depend real heavily on our rail
partners to move it, because we only have so much room in inventory there. The
mine has a huge opportunity to produce more than it has. And I think we're going
to do that. Those coals because of the quality have opportunities to go into
different sets of markets. We need to do some work on our forward reserves, but
for the next five years, I feel really good about West Elk, and I think we're
going to put that coal to marketplace. How is eastern US coal faring in domestic
markets? Our Pennsylvania mining complex is the largest complex in North
America, and we invested $2bn in capital in the last decade. It's a very high
quality, high-cv coal. We move a lot of that into India, into the industrial
side. We have a lot of domestic customers that love the high-heat value of the
coal. So we ship a lot of it, and we'll continue to serve our domestic partners.
We run to the market. So if the market domestically is...a better price, we'll
favor the domestic market over the international market. If we can serve both,
that's even better. Right now, we move probably 30pc of that coal
internationally. The rest stays here, domestically. And it can change. There's
going to be new opportunities for coal to stay home here, going into the
domestic utilities, and that means that we may either do one of two things,
we'll either run more or we'll ship less internationally and more here. Despite
a supportive presidential administration, the company has maintained its 2026
outlook. Why? We're exploring all the sales we can. But I want to be crystal
clear about this: as great as the Trump administration is today, they cannot
solve our problems. They can only give us resources that will solve them. We
have to put those resources to work. [There are] positive things coming back
now. You see these power plants that were scheduled to shut down now announcing
further out retirement dates, going to run longer. Some are saying: "I don't
have a retirement date because all of my customers are telling me they need more
electricity, not less". So that's all coming out of what the Trump
administration has put forward with the executive orders and really the demand.
If all of this demand does come on, if it is 3pc annually for the next 10 years,
that could be 30pc more. And a 1pc increase in utilization at those coal-fired
plants for capacity factor is 10mn st. So, you can see how enormous that could
be for the coal side of the thing, if all of this comes now. How would you
describe the impact of recent Department of Energy emergency orders on the coal
industry? The plants that we go into haven't really [been affected by the
orders]… The consent decree that just got passed in Pennsylvania for Keystone
and Conemaugh coal plants [between the state and plant owners] is huge for us.
They were first targeted to retire in 2028, now they're going to run. They
really don't have retirement. They said 2032, but they're going to use that
consent decree to make the improvements in the plants, which is going to let
them run far beyond it... But I think those 202(c) orders, if nothing else, put
the US on a significant path to understand grid reliability and affordability.
US utilities still seem to be more interested in adding new natural gas or
renewable generation instead of coal. What do you think might change that? We do
our best to talk about it, but the real lesson will come in economics. If I'm
the CEO of a utility company, my number one job is to provide power 24/7 that's
reliable, affordable and secure. So those are the three things. So coal has all
three. Are we going to get back to 50pc of the electric generation? Probably
not. But who knows how high we can go? We certainly are not going to remain in
the teens; we're going to continue to grow. By Elena Vasilyeva Send comments and
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