10/07/26
EU could face tighter rapeseed supply in 2026-27
London, 10 July (Argus) — The EU rapeseed sector is facing a second year of low
supply from the world's top exporters, at a time when the impact of unfavourable
weather on crops in parts of Europe could increase the bloc's reliance on
imports. Cold weather in spring and several heatwaves in Europe in the past two
months could result in an EU rapeseed crop of below 20mn t in a low-case
scenario, down from the 20.4mn t currently forecast by Argus analytics for the
2026-27 marketing year that started on 1 July. A 20.2mn t EU rapeseed crop for
the 2025-26 marketing year meant that the bloc was largely able to offset lower
supply and uncompetitive prices from its top global suppliers. But the EU's
import options in 2026-27 remain limited for the second year in a row.
Australian canola output could fall to 6.35mn t in the 2026-27 marketing year
starting on 1 November from 7.76mn t a year earlier, while exports could decline
by 500,000t on the year to 4.9mn t in the upcoming season, Argus projected. A
strong El Nino weather pattern that could develop this growing season poses a
high risk to yields from dry, hot weather in Australia's main canola-producing
regions. El Nino has not yet caused any adverse effects, and growing conditions
have been favourable so far, supported by adequate rainfall, but yields may
still fall as a result of lower fertiliser application in recent months, owing
to Australia being one of the countries most affected by fertiliser supply
disruptions and price increases caused by the US-Iran war. Australia may also
direct rising volumes of its canola to China in the coming months. At present,
only some state-owned firms in China are permitted to import Australian canola,
but market participants expect China to soon open the market to private crushers
as well. If so, China could increasingly switch from Canadian canola to
Australian origin, potentially leaving less Australian supply available to the
EU. As for Canada's exports to the EU, supply is uncertain because of Canada's
growing domestic crush sector, supported by strong demand for canola oil from US
biofuel producers. Argus forecasts Canada's canola exports at 8mn t in the
2026-27 year starting 1 August, down from 8.5mn t a year earlier, despite
expectations of higher output next season, as producers struggle to keep up with
growing demand from crushers. Ukraine is expected to see just a marginal
increase in rapeseed output and exports in 2026-27, according to Argus
forecasts. Export duties and strong demand from Ukrainian crushers — market
participants expect the crush sector to process 1.5mn t of rapeseed this year,
even higher than last year's surge to 1.2mn t — mean the domestic market could
absorb all additional rapeseed. As a result, EU imports of Ukrainian rapeseed
oil (RSO) could continue to rise. The EU imported 523,000t of RSO in 2025-26, up
from 320,000t a year earlier. Ukraine accounted for the bulk of the volume at
354,000t, European Commission data show, with the EU being the main export
destination for Ukrainian RSO. EU rapeseed imports at four-year low in 2025-26
EU rapeseed imports fell to 5.4mn t in 2025-26, down by 29pc on the year and the
lowest since 2021-22, commission data show. EU imports from all its main
suppliers fell, with receipts from Australia — the largest source of imported
rapeseed to the EU — showing the steepest decline ( see table ). A relatively
large rapeseed crop within the EU made imports less attractive, with Australian
canola particularly uncompetitive against the EU's own rapeseed earlier in the
season and later in spring 2026, when the US-Iran war pushed up freight rates.
Australia directed canola elsewhere, stepping up exports to the UAE and
restarting shipments to China at the end of 2025. The EU's imports of Ukrainian
rapeseed also fell sharply, after an export duty on Ukrainian rapeseed
introduced in September 2025 redirected more of the country's production to the
domestic crush sector. EU imports of Canadian canola also declined in 2025-26,
but Canada increased its share of the EU rapeseed market by around one
percentage point at the expense of Australian and Ukrainian market shares ( see
charts ). Canada is typically the EU's third-largest source of imported
rapeseed, and competitive prices in December prompted a wave of purchases to top
up supply within the bloc. Some smaller exporters, including Moldova, also
increased their supplies to the EU in 2025-26. Moldovan exports to the bloc
could rise further this season because the country is expecting a larger crop.
By Nataliia Haisonok EU rapeseed imports 000t 2025-26 2024-25 ±% Australia 2,143
3,608 -41 Ukraine 1,596 2,410 -34 Canada 874 1,132 -23 Moldova 274 105 161
Serbia 138 70 97 Other 369 222 66 Total 5,394 7,547 -29 — European Commission EU
rapeseed imports by origin in 2025-26 % EU rapeseed imports by origin in 2024-25
% Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com
Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
