Corrects error in fourth paragraph, replaces 'Opec output' with 'call on Opec'
The IEA revised up its forecast for global oil demand by 200,000 b/d for 2009 and by 350,000 b/d for next year. The revisions imply a 1.7mn b/d year-on-year fall for 2009 to 84.6mn b/d, and a rise of 1.4mn b/d for 2010. The revisions were due to a more optimistic IMF outlook for global GDP growth and stronger data from the Americas and Asia, the OECD energy watchdog said in its October Oil Market Report (OMR). Demand growth for industrialised countries is projected to rise by 70,000 b/d more than previously forecast for each of the two years.
But the IEA cautions that the outlook remains uncertain. It also notes that although a return to year-on-year demand growth is expected to emerge in the fourth quarter, demand among the world's largest consumer countries is still falling year-on-year, with gasoil particularly weak.
Global supply in September rose by 310,000 b/d to 84.9mn b/d from August and was almost flat against September last year. Nigeria, Angola and Venezuela largely accounted for an estimated rise of 120,000 b/d in Opec output to 28.9mn b/d. A quiet hurricane season in the US Gulf coast allowed non-Opec production to increase by 200,000 b/d from August. Forecasts for 2009 and 2010 non-Opec production were virtually unchanged. Record Russian output was in line with expectations.
The IEA lifted its forecast for call on Opec by 200,000 b/d to 28.4mn b/d for next year. It raised its projection for the fourth quarter of this year by 500,000 b/d to 28.4mn b/d.
The forecast for global refinery crude runs for the third quarter rose by 600,000 b/d compared with the last OMR. But the IEA cut its projection for fourth-quarter throughput by 200,000 b/d to 73.2mn b/d as refinery margins remain pressured.
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