Houston, 6 June (Argus) — Tropical storm Andrea, the first named storm in what forecasters say will be a busy 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, will make landfall today on Florida's Gulf coast, skirting oil and natural gas production in the US Gulf of Mexico.
Andrea formed yesterday in the east-central US Gulf and will make a short-lived trip to Florida, where it is expected to make landfall tonight in the northern part of that state. An aircraft investigating the storm has measured its winds at near 60 miles per hour.
But those winds are confined to the eastern side of the storm — putting oil and gas production, which is primarily located in the central and western Gulf at less risk.
Andrea poses a “near-zero” threat to production, Matt Rogers, president of the private forecasting firm Commodity Weather Group told Argus.
Energy markets pay close attention to storms that can threaten oil and gas output and infrastructure in the US Gulf. The federal waters of the Gulf accounted for 1.27mn b/d of, or 20pc, of US crude production and 4.22 Bcf/d (120mn m³/d), or 6pc, of marketed gas production in 2012, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The Gulf coast is home to more than 40pc of US refining capacity and 30pc of gas processing capacity.
Hurricanes have had less influence on the natural gas market in recent years as a boom in onshore shale production has led the US to rely less heavily on output from the US Gulf. Gross gas production from the US Gulf fell to less than 4 Bcf/d in March, compared with an average of more than 10 Bcf/d ahead of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, according to the EIA.
The global crude oil market is more immune to storm-related price spikes. But storms can create significant refinery disruptions, creating volatility in the gasoline and other refined products markets.
Forecasters with Colorado State University (CSU) said this week that they expect a “very active” 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, with a higher-than-average chance of at least one major storm making landfall along the US coastline.
The 2013 season, which lasts from 1 June to 30 November, will bring an estimated 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes of category 3 status or greater, according to the outlook. That compares with median totals from 1981-2010 of 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
CSU forecasters see a 47pc chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf coast between Brownsville, Texas, and the Florida panhandle, compared with a 30pc average chance over the last century. The US east coast, which includes the Florida peninsula, has a 48pc chance of being hit, up from a 31pc average chance over the last 100 years.
The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season saw 19 named storms, ten of which became hurricanes and two became major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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