Quarterly rare earths market update – July 2024
Explore our products
Spotlight content
Quarterly rare earths market update – April 2025
Argus launches new prices for rare earth magnets
The bizarre case of Ukraine’s ‘rare earths’
Related metals news
Mexico trade balance swings to deficit in Jan
Mexico trade balance swings to deficit in Jan
Houston, 2 March (Argus) — Mexico's trade balance returned to deficit in January, driven by a seasonal drop-off in total trade volume as well as 20.1pc in oil sales from December. Mexico posted a $6.48bn trade deficit in January, swinging from a $2.43bn trade surplus in December, statistics agency Inegi reported on 27 February. Total exports reached $48bn, while imports stood at $54.5bn in January. That compared with $60.7bn in exports and $58.2bn in imports in December. Inegi attributed the shift in the January trade balance to the swing in the non-oil balance to a $4.27bn deficit from the $4.84bn surplus in December, while the oil trade deficit narrowed slightly to $2.21bn in January from $2.41bn in December. The deficit was significantly wider than the $3.24bn deficit forecast by Mexican bank Banorte, who noted deficits are typical for January due to "front-loaded shipments from China ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations." In this case, said Banorte, the wider deficit was tied to additional strengthening of the peso in January, moving to Ps17.66 to the US dollar from Ps$18.07:$1 in December Looking ahead, Banorte sees additional volatility in 2026 in the balance on the shifting tariff environment, including higher tariffs on some goods imported from countries without free trade agreements under Mexico's new customs law, as well as the upcoming renewal process for the USMCA free trade agreement. Non-oil exports expanded 0.7pc in January to $46.9bn after a 0.4pc decline in December. Manufacturing exports edged 0.1pc higher to $43.5bn in January, after declining 0.5pc in December. Automotive exports, however, fell 2.3pc in January to $11.3bn, following on a 5.3pc drop in December. In contrast, non-auto manufacturing exports rose 1.1pc to $32.1bn after a 1.5pc increase in December, and agriculture exports grew by 5.9pc to $1.9bn, in a backdrop of relatively stable weather conditions. Non-oil mineral exports rose 15pc to $1.53bn, on the back of a 3.6pc rise in December and 16pc increase in November. Oil-related exports totaled $1.11bn in January, including $608mn in crude and $502mn in refined products, on lower prices and volumes. Exports were down 20.3pc from $1.52bn in December. Mexico's crude export basket averaged $55.34/bl, down by $0.92/bl from December and $11.55/bl lower compared with a year earlier. Crude export volumes fell to 355,000 b/d in January from 481,000 b/d in December and 597,000 b/d in November, and also below the 585,000 b/d exported in January 2025. Total imports expanded by 0.3pc in January to $54.5bn, despite a 15pc decline in consumer goods imports to $6.99bn and a 0.7pc drop in capital goods imports to $4.38bn. The increase was driven by imports of non-oil intermediate goods, up 3.9pc from December to $43.1bn, "benefitting from dollar weakness and manufacturing momentum," said Banorte. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexican central bank raises GDP outlook
Mexican central bank raises GDP outlook
Houston, 2 March (Argus) — Mexico's central bank raised its 2026 GDP outlook on "better-than-expected growth" in the last quarter of 2025, although uncertainty around US, Mexico Canada (USMCA) trade negotiations remains. Banxico raised its 2026 growth estimate to 1.6pc from 1.1pc provided at the last quarterly report in November, and held its 2027 growth forecast unchanged at 2pc. The bank cited statistics agency Inegi's revised estimate for fourth quarter 2025 GDP growth to an annualized 1.8pc from 1.6pc in its preliminary estimate, with growth in the agriculture sector revised to 7.8pc from the 6pc preliminary estimate. "Looking ahead to 2026, we continue to anticipate some acceleration in the pace of economic growth, though … slack conditions are expected to prevail," said central bank governor Victoria Rodriguez in the latest quarterly report on 26 February. This assumes "private consumption will increase," said Rodriguez, while "investment is forecast to remain weak, ... reflecting the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the trade relationship with the United States and the upcoming review of the [USMCA free] trade agreement." The US, Mexico and Canada are set to hold a joint review on 1 July that could extend the treaty through 2036. Formal talks began in September and, while some milestones have been completed, key issues remain unresolved. On 5 February, Banxico held its benchmark interest rate at 7pc, its lowest level since June 2022, pausing the rate-cut cycle after eight consecutive cuts that began in February 2025. The bank's quarterly report held its 5 February forecasts for headline and core inflation unchanged, which convergence to the bank's 3pc target inflation rate for both metrics to the second quarter of 2027, three quarters later than the bank forecast in its November report. Despite the latest pause in rate cuts, "We will consider further cuts to the benchmark interest rate, going forward," Rodriguez said, citing the recent strength of the Mexican peso-US dollar exchange rate, which was trading at Ps17.21:$1 as of 27 February. With the report, Mexican bank Banorte maintained expectations that Banxico will issue a quarter-point rate cut at its 26 March meeting, with another cut likely before July to bring the rate to 6.5pc. Mexico's inflation accelerated to an annual 3.79pc in January from 3.69pc in December, with core prices quickening to 4.52pc in January from 4.33pc the prior month on excise tax hikes introduced on 1 January. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Steel markets brace for Gulf conflict
Steel markets brace for Gulf conflict
London, 2 March (Argus) — The global steel market is preparing for widespread disruption following military escalation between the US and Iran in the Persian Gulf and the subsequent threat to shipping through the strait of Hormuz. Although the strait has not been formally closed, it remains a critical chokepoint and the conflict is expected to directly squeeze Middle Eastern steel supply while driving up logistics, freight rates and production costs. Most shipowners are avoiding transit through the strait. The conflict has already sent crude futures surging by 13pc as Asian markets resumed trading, which will inevitably inflate energy-intensive production costs and freight rates. Insurance premiums for regional transit are also expected to climb sharply. Iran's semi-finished exports Iran's potential absence from the market poses a significant threat to the global semi-finished steel trade and supply. In 2024, Iranian exports of billets and slabs averaged approximately 250,000 t/month. The vacuum is already being felt: an Indonesian producer reportedly raised slab prices by $5/t today and hot-rolled coil (HRC) by $10/t. A Chinese trading company that supplies slab and billet to Turkey indicated that its freight costs have risen by 15-20pc, and raised its billet offer by $5/t today, with the price impact so far muted by destocking in the Chinese domestic market. Another Chinese trader said the effect on freight costs is not yet clear, but that they are sure to increase. Semi-finished prices similarly rose in response to widespread protests in Iran in late December-early January. But sources expect Iranian offers to be suspended for the foreseeable future, after US president Donald Trump said military operations may last up to four weeks. GCC impact The wider Persian Gulf has gained importance in the global steel landscape in recent months, driven by capacity ramp-ups across the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), a relative lack of regional import restrictions, as well as exemption from key trade measures such as the EU's steel safeguards. For Chinese and other Asian suppliers, the GCC has emerged as a primary outlet. One Chinese trading firm said today that it has suspended new offers to the Middle East, while auditing the shipment status of existing orders. The source added that shipping companies have ceased offering freight rates for routes into the Middle East and Europe, effectively halting new deals. An eastern China-based trader confirmed they have moved into a "wait-and-see" mode, citing interrupted shipments and the high likelihood of delays for cargoes already en route. Traders in GCC countries added that closure of the strait of Hormuz could trigger force majeure claims on cargoes already booked. Several UAE buyers said dispatches scheduled for this week were put on hold, while others said no new steel deals were being concluded as suppliers reassess shipment risks. Sources also reported operational disruptions at Jebel Ali and Salalah, while most carriers have stopped calling at Dammam, although the port remains open. The disruption also threatens a nascent trade flow into the EU. Since last year, Saudi HRC and UAE hot-dipped galvanised (HDG) have increasingly made their way to the EU market, benefiting from exemptions under the bloc's steel safeguards. Approximately 165,000t of Saudi HRC was imported into the EU in the second half of 2025, with traders expecting increased volumes this year. Similarly, the UAE supplied roughly 130,000t of HDG to the EU in the same period. The final lots of safeguard-free material from the GCC is scheduled to arrive in the first half of 2026, but the conflict puts this supply at risk. Traders said cargoes EU-bound cargoes were loading from Saudi Arabia in both April and May, and that any logistical issues could pose some quota risk, with a new tighter mechanism — with Saudi Arabia likely to be in scope — to be implemented in July. Some traders were also concerned whether wider escalation could effect material shipping through the Red Sea, delaying material scheduled to arrive before the new measure comes into force. "The situation that developed over the weekend clearly makes the imports more risky, including for downstream products and that is important," a mill executive told Argus . Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US-Iran conflict: Latest news
US-Iran conflict: Latest news
London, 2 March (Argus) — A round-up of the latest Argus news stories focusing on the US-Iran conflict. TOP HEADLINES Iran rejects US talks as conflict widens Vessels steer clear of strait of Hormuz India mulls raising Russian oil buy on Mideast conflict Ras Tanura refinery shut after drone strike: Update Opec+ agrees April output boost as war threatens supply Crude futures surge 13pc as US-Iran attacks continue LATEST STORIES Crude oil UAE's Fujairah port ‘largely resumed' from stoppage Iraq's Shaikan shut amid widening Iran conflict Refined products Asian oil product spreads continue to strengthen Projectiles hit ships near strait of Hormuz: Update Thailand halts oil exports on US-Iran conflict Asian HSFO rises on supply risks from US-Iran conflict Asian naphtha spikes on Iran conflict Asian gasoline surges on supply disruptions Asian middle distillate prices rise on US-Iran conflict Egypt's EGPC seeks prompt delivery gasoline, gasoil LNG India's LNG tankers divert away from strait of Hormuz Asia LNG buyers stay cautious as Mideast crisis unfolds LPG Asian LPG rises 12pc on Iran conflict India's LPG imports face disruption on Mideast conflict Petrochemicals Iran conflict disrupts Middle East methanol supply China's PDH to cut runs on propane disruptions Chinese polymer futures rise on Middle East conflict Freight Major P&I clubs cancel war risk cover for Mideast Gulf Fertilizers Chinese domestic sulphur prices surge on Iran crisis Australia urea faces supply risk on Iran conflict Major Middle East urea producers withdraw offers Thai ferts importers halt sales on US-Iran conflict Chinese domestic amsul prices surge on US-Iran conflict Metals China tungsten hits record high on Mideast conflict Coal US-Iran conflict has limited impact on Asia coal, gas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.