Power sector struggles to offset weak gas injections
Western European power sector gas burn climbed to a recent-year record for October last month, but was not strong enough to fully offset a fall in northwest European injection demand.
Combined power sector gas consumption in Germany, the Netherlands, France, the UK, Italy and Spain climbed to around 2.7 TWh/d in October from 2.1 GWh/d a year earlier and was the highest for the month since at least 2011. It was the strongest power sector gas burn for any month since at least the 2.9 TWh/d in January 2017 when a deep cold snap lifted power and gas demand across the continent and renewable output had been weak.
The year-on-year rise was largely driven by stronger gas burn in Spain, Germany and the Netherlands, which were responsible for almost 500 GWh/d of the 620b GWh/d total increase in aggregate, although gas burn climbed in each of the six markets. Spanish power sector gas burn was particularly strong, lifting domestic gas consumption to a 10-year October high.
Weaker gas hub prices than in recent years and firm EU emissions trading system (ETS) carbon allowance prices have resulted in gas being much more competitive with coal so far this year, largely driving the rise in power sector gas burn. And regional prompt prices mostly remained deep in fuel-switching territory last month, with Dutch and German prompt prices staying well below the level at which even the oldest 45pc-efficient gas-fired plants could compete with the most modern 46pc-efficient coal-fired plants for most of October.
But the 620 GWh/d rise in gas burn was not enough to offset the fall in injections in northwest Europe. Combined injections at German, Dutch and French sites — excluding Norg, which is filled directly from the Groningen field — were only 80 GWh/d in October, down from 968 GWh/d a year earlier.
Aggregate power sector gas burn would have had to climb to more than 3 TWh/d to entirely offset the decline in injections last month. This would have been the strongest for any month since at least January 2011, with the 2.9 TWh/d in January 2017 the next highest.
But power sector gas demand could step up considerably this month from more than 2.4 TWh/d in November 2018, which was the lowest for the month in the past three years. Gas had stayed firmly uncompetitive with coal in November last year, freeing up additional supply for some injections to continue for part of the month.
But gas burn fell early this month, leaving some of the region's most inefficient gas-fired plants further down in the merit order. But TTF and NCG prompt prices were still firmly in fuel-switching territory, with 54pc and 55pc-efficient gas-fired plants in competition with the region's most modern coal-fired plants.
And German lignite-fired plant capacity available to the wholesale power market has fallen from last winter, with more units having been moved into the country's lignite reserve. German utility RWE estimates that a moratorium on further deforestation of the Hambach forest, which is needed to extend the Hambach mine and run the Neurath and Niederaussemen units at full load, would cut power production from the two plants by a combined 5TWh this year.
Gas burn has risen sharply in November from October in most recent years, climbing to more than 2.6 TWh/d in November in the past three years from under 2.3 TWh/d in October. A similar rise this month would lift gas burn to just over 3 TWh/d.
And it could be possible for western European gas burn to rise above 3 TWh/d. Assuming gas burn were to match the highest for each of the six countries since January 2011, combined gas burn could climb to more than 3.2 TWh/d in a month.
Power sector consumption staying high could bolster demand for withdrawals and imports in the coming months.
Injections in northwest Europe on 1-5 November have been quicker than average, but were still minimal, with sites already near capacity. But regasification has jumped, with daily sendout reaching nameplate capacity at some northwest European terminals. Continued brisk deliveries could help provide ample supply for strong power sector gas burn through November, even if the stockdraw remains slow.
07112019041021.jpg)
Related news posts
Oman latest to insist that oil, gas is 'here to stay'
Oman latest to insist that oil, gas is 'here to stay'
Muscat, 24 April (Argus) — Omani and Oman-focused energy officials this week joined a growing chorus of voices to reiterate the pivotal role that hydrocarbons have in the energy mix, even as state-owned companies scramble to increase their share of renewables production. Some producers cite the risk of leaving costly, stranded oil and gas assets as renewable energy alternatives become more favoured. "This is a common concern among producers who are focusing on short-term developments to maximize cash flow — [but] if we continue to do that, with the clean energy transition, will we be left with stranded assets in the long-term", state-controlled PDO's technical director Sami Baqi told the Oman Petroleum and Crude Show conference in Muscat this week. "We need to redefine and revamp our operation model to produce in a sustainable manner." "We are in an era where most of the production does not come from the easy oil but comes from difficult oil," Oman's energy ministry undersecretary Mohsin Al Hadhrami said. "It requires more improved and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) type technologies to extract it." Oman is heavily reliant on tertiary extraction technologies like EOR given its maturing asset base and complicated geology. "We know that most of the oil fields [in the region] are maturing and costs are going to escalate, so we need to be mindful of it while discussing cleaner solutions going forward," Hadhrami said. PDO, Oman's largest hydrocarbon producer, aims for 19pc of its output to come from EOR projects by 2025, and has said it is looking at 'cleaner' ways to implement the technology. PDO in November started a pilot project to inject captured CO2 for EOR at its oil reservoirs. Baqi's concerns were echoed by PDO's carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) manager Nabil Al-Bulushi, who said even solutions like CCUS can be expensive and come with their own challenges. There is a need for a proper ecosystem or regulatory policies to avoid delays in executing such projects, he said. When it comes to challenges associated with commercialising green hydrogen, Saudi state-controlled Aramco's head of upstream Yousef Al-Tahan said higher costs already make hydrogen more expensive than any other energy sources. "Not only should the costs go down, but the market has to be matured to take in the hydrogen," he said. "We also need pipelines and facilities that are able to handle hydrogen, especially when it gets converted to ammonia." Gas here to stay Oman, like many of its neighbors in the Mideast Gulf, insists gas needs to be part of the global journey towards cleaner energies. "Asia-Pacific is still heavily reliant on coal, this is an area where gas can play an important role," Shell Oman's development manager Salim Al Amri said at the event. "I think there is no doubt that gas is here to stay." Oman is a particularly interesting case as it "has moved from a position of gas shortage to surplus", Al Amri said, enabled by key developments in tight gas. "Output from fields like Khazzan and Mabrouk will continue to produce nearly 50pc of output even by 2025, which is indicative of how important tight gas developments are," he said. The Khazzan tight gas field has 10.5 trillion ft³ of recoverable gas reserves. Mabrouk North East is due to reach 500mn ft³/d by mid-2024. But even as natural gas is touted as the transition fuel, executives from major producers like state-owned OQ and PDO warned there are technical risks associated with extracting the fuel, including encountering complex tight reservoirs, water production and difficult geology. By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s Woodside pledges extra domestic gas in 2025
Australia’s Woodside pledges extra domestic gas in 2025
Sydney, 24 April (Argus) — Australian independent Woodside Energy has promised to increase gas flows to domestic customers with a predicted national shortfall. The firm promises to make an extra 32PJ (854mn m³) available to the Western Australia (WA) domestic market by the end of 2025, Woodside chief executive Meg O'Neill said at its annual meeting in Perth on 24 April, following criticism of the state's LNG projects' contribution to WA supplies . Woodside produced 76PJ for the WA market in 2023. The company has initiated an expression of interest process for an additional 50PJ of gas from its Bass Strait fields offshore Victoria state for supply in 2025 and 2026 when a tight market is expected for east Australia . Woodside also said its Sangomar oil project offshore Senegal is 96pc complete with 19 of 23 initial wells complete. WA's Scarborough project is 62pc complete with trunkline installation and well drilling having started in the offshore Carnarvon basin. It last month awarded the sub-sea marine installation contract for its 100,000 b/d Trion project offshore Mexico, which is targeting its first oil in 2028. Woodside's 2023 operating revenue was $14bn , resulting in a profit of $1.7bn. Climate tensions Woodside's climate transition action plan saw 58.36pc opposition from shareholders at the annual meeting but is non-binding on the company. Woodside's 2021 climate report also faced significant opposition with 48.97pc voting against its adoption. The company did not put its 2022 climate report up for vote at last year's annual meeting. Its new emissions abatement target aims to reduce Woodside's customers' scope 1 and 2 emissions by 5mn t/yr by 2030, along with a $5bn investment in new energy projects by the same date. Net equity scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions rose to 5.53mn t carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2023 from 4.61mn t CO2e in 2022 because of its merger with BHP Petroleum in mid-2022. Several major institutional shareholders including large domestic and international pension funds had already flagged their vote against Woodside's climate report, citing an insufficient urgency to reduce the firm's emissions. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US oil and gas deals slowing after record 1Q: Enverus
US oil and gas deals slowing after record 1Q: Enverus
New York, 23 April (Argus) — US oil and gas sector mergers will likely slow for the rest of the year following a record $51bn in deal in the first quarter, according to consultancy Enverus. Transactions slowed in March and the second quarter appears to have already lost momentum, according to Enverus, following the year-end 2023 surge in consolidation that spurred an unprecedented $192bn of upstream deals last year. The Permian shale basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico continued to dominate mergers and acquisitions, as companies competed for the remaining high-quality inventory on offer. Acquisitions were led by Diamondback Energy's $26bn takeover of closely-held Endeavor Energy Resources . Others include APA buying Callon Petroleum for $4.5bn in stock and Chesapeake Energy's $7.4bn takeover of Southwestern Energy . The deal cast a spotlight on the remaining private family-owned operators, such as Mewbourne Oil and Fasken Oil & Ranch, which would be highly sought after if they decided to put themselves up for sale. "However, there are no indications these closely held companies are looking to exit any time soon," said Andrew Dittmar, principal analyst at Enverus. "That leaves public explorers and producers (E&P) looking to scoop up the increasingly thin list of private E&Ps backed by institutional capital and built with a sale in mind — or figuring out ways to merge with each other." Deals including ExxonMobil's $59.5bn takeover of Pioneer Natural Resources, as well as Chevron's $53bn deal for Hess, have attracted the attention of anti-trust regulators. The Federal Trade Commission has also sought more information on the Chesapeake/Southwestern deal. "The most likely outcome is all these deals get approved but federal regulatory oversight may pose a headwind to additional consolidation within a single play," said Dittmar. "That may force buyers to broaden their focus by acquiring assets in multiple plays." By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
USGC LNG-VLSFO discount to steady itself
USGC LNG-VLSFO discount to steady itself
New York, 23 April (Argus) — The premium for US Gulf coast (USGC) very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) to LNG is expected to linger but not widen this spring, maintaining interest in LNG as a bunkering fuel. US Gulf coast LNG prices slipped from a premium to a discount to VLSFO in March 2023 and have remained there since. The discount surpassed 200/t VLSFO-equivalent in January (see chart). Both LNG and VLSFO prices are expected to remain under downward pressure due to high inventories, which could keep the current LNG discount steady. The US winter natural gas withdrawal season ended with 39pc more natural gas in storage compared with the five-year average, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Henry Hub natural gas monthly average prices dropped below $2/mmBtu in February, for the first time since September 2020, Argus data showed. The EIA expects the US will produce less natural gas on average in the second and third quarter of 2024 compared with the first quarter of 2024. Despite lower production, the US will have the most natural gas in storage on record when the winter withdrawal season begins in November, says the EIA. As a result, the agency forecasts the Henry Hub spot price to average less than $2/mmBtu in the second quarter before "increasing slightly" in the third quarter. EIA's forecast for all of 2024 averages about $2.20/mmBtu. US Gulf coast VLSFO is facing downward price pressure as demand falls and increased refinery activity signals a potential supply build . Rising Gulf coast refinery activity was likely behind some of the drop in prices. Gulf coast refinery utilization last week rose to 91.4pc, the highest in 12 weeks and up by 0.9 percentage points from the prior week. US Gulf coast suppliers are also eyeing strong fuel oil price competition from eastern hemisphere ports such as Singapore and Zhoushan, China, importing cheap Russian residual fuel oil. In general, LNG's substantial discount to VLSFO has kept interest in LNG for bunkering from ship owners with LNG-burning vessels high. The EIA discontinued publishing US bunker sales statistics with the last data available for 2020. But data from the Singapore Maritime & Port Authority, where the LNG–VLSFO discount widened to over $200/t VLSFOe in February, showed Singapore LNG for bunkering demand increase 11.4 times to 75,900t in the first quarter compared with 6,700t in the first quarter of 2023 and 110,900t for full year 2022. By Stefka Wechsler US Gulf coast LNG vs VLSFO $/t VLSFOe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more