Brazil sounds alarm on more tailings, hydro dams

Spanish Market: Electricity, Metals
09/09/20

Brazil's water regulator ANA is raising the alarm on the structural integrity of more dams following the deadly January 2019 collapse of the Brumadinho tailings dam of miner Vale.

An ANA post-disaster report, which follows senate approval last week of a new safety law that increases oversight and fines, classified 156 dams across 22 states as being in critical condition, up 129pc from the 68 dams classified as critical the year before.

Driving the increase is a 135pc jump in on-site dam inspections by a state or federal official, from 920 in 2018 to 2,168 last year, the report said.

Minas Gerais state, which is a major mining state and accounts for about half of Vale's annual iron ore output, led the list with 40 of the 156 dams ranked in critical condition by the ANA. The state was home to the Brumadinho disaster last year that killed 270 people, and the November 2015 tailings dam break at Samarco's Mariana that killed 19.

According to ANA's report, Vale alone has 18 dams in Minas Gerais that are ranked as critical.

The critical list also included dams owned by aluminum producer Alcoa Aluminio, steel producer Arcelormittal Mineracao and fertilizer producer Mosaic Fertilizantes. The report also cited the 31.5MW Paranapanema hydroelectric plant owned by Italian utility Enel, 48MW Sao Domingos owned by Brazilian state-controlled utility Eletrosul and 130MW Montes Claro owned by Companhia Energetica Rio das Antas.

In a separate assessment, mining regulator ANM has identified 51 tailings dams that are currently classified as "at risk." This included four classified as "level three" which indicates a high likelihood of rupture. All four are located in Minas Gerais and three are owned by Vale.

Last week, the senate passed a bill that will stiffen prison sentences for those found guilty for dam accidents that result in the loss of life or environmental damage and raised fines to up to R1bn ($188mn) for companies in violation of safety regulations. In an earlier draft of the bill, fines were as high as R10bn for violations, but the lower house eased the penalties in the most recent version.

President Jair Bolsonaro is expected to sign the bill, but is likely to veto a clause that requires financial guarantees for all dams. This requirement could have a negative impact on state, local and federal governments, which operate and maintain many dams.

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24/04/24

Critical battery metal supply meets today's demand: IEA

Singapore, 24 April (Argus) — Supply of critical battery metals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt can "comfortably" meet current demand after major mining and refining investment over the past five years, according to IEA's latest Global EV Outlook 2024 . Global supply of lithium, nickel and cobalt in 2023 exceeded demand by 10pc, 8pc and 6.5pc, respectively, said IEA. Lithium demand for battery rose by 30pc on the year to around 140,000t, that of cobalt increased by 15pc to 150,000t, and nickel rose by 30pc to 370,000t. Continued rapid growth in mining and refining is needed to meet future demand and avoid supply chain bottlenecks, but battery technology advancements can potentially mitigate the demand, IEA said. IEA noted overcapacity has brought critical minerals prices and battery costs down but is also squeezing mining firms' cash flows and margins, with many companies struggling to stay afloat. Australia's nickel industry has been hit hard this year, with multiple producers ceasing operations following a sharp nickel market downturn, having to compete with rising nickel supply from Indonesia. Western Australia had to resort to providing royalty rebates to struggling nickel producers. Low lithium prices are threatening the survival of greenfield lithium project developers , and also affecting some established participants. Major Chinese lithium producer Tianqi Lithium on 23 April issued a profit warning to its shareholders, citing a significant fall in lithium product sales price. Tianqi warned of a net loss of 3.6bn-4.3bn yuan ($497-593mn) in January-March, drastically below a net profit of 4.88bn yuan for the same period a year earlier. Global lithium firm Arcadium Lithium earlier this year warned that current market prices will weigh on future supply . Cobalt prices in China are also under pressure, with market participants forecasting the downtrend to continue at least until the end of this year. "Everyone's mentally prepared that this year's a tough year, even 2025 [can be tough]," said a lithium market participant, noting the adverse effects from this year's global economic downturn. Battery EV battery demand rose by 40pc on the year to 750GWh in 2023, but at a lower rate as EV demand growth also slows down . Among major markets, US and Europe grew the fastest by 40pc on the year, while China — the largest market — grew by 35pc. Battery demand in the rest of the world grew by 70pc, but was still lower than 100GWh. China's battery demand reached 415GWh in 2023, while Europe and US trailed behind at 185GWh and 100GWh, respectively. Battery output in Europe and US were 110GWh and 70GWh, respectively. Lithium-ion battery output in China was 940GWh in 2023 , according to data from the country's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). China is leading the way, but it comes at the cost of "high levels of overcapacity", IEA noted. China used less than 40pc of its maximum cell output, with its installed manufacturing capacity of cathode active material and anode active material at almost four and nine times greater than global EV cell demand in 2023. Homegrown current and additional EV battery manufacturing capacity in Europe and US are scarce. South Korean firms account for over 350GWh of manufacturing capacity outside of South Korea, with around 75pc of existing manufacturing capacity in Europe owned by South Korean firms. Japanese and Chinese firms have 57GWh and 30GWh of capacity, respectively, outside of their own countries. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China's Hunan Yuneng to build Spain battery LFP plant

24/04/24

China's Hunan Yuneng to build Spain battery LFP plant

Beijing, 24 April (Argus) — Chinese battery cathode producers have continued to expand investment in the overseas market, with the country's largest lithium iron phosphate (LFP) producer Hunan Yuneng planning to build a plant in Spain. Yuneng plans to invest 982mn yuan ($135.5mn) to build a 50,000 t/yr LFP production plant in Spain's Extremadura region. The firm aims to complete the site construction in 15 months after obtaining approval from the authorities. It will establish a subsidiary Yuneng International (Spain) New Energy Battery Material to develop this project. It did not disclose more details such as the launch dates. "This project is to strengthen the company's position in the global market and meet demand from overseas consumers, on the back of growing demand for LFP cathodes in the overseas market driven by the development of new energy vehicles outside China, especially in Europe," Yuneng said. Yuneng produced 504,400t of LFP cathodes in 2023, up by 50pc from a year earlier, with sales also rising by 56pc to 506,800t over the same period. It has achieved a nameplate capacity of 700,000 t/yr for LFP as of the end of 2023. It is also expanding capacity for another emerging battery cathode material, lithium manganese iron phosphate, which has higher energy density and allows for a longer driving range in electric vehicles (EVs), better performance in winter temperatures, and has lower manufacturing costs compared with LFP. Overseas expansions A growing number of Chinese battery cathode firms have accelerated their investment in overseas production projects, such as in France, Morocco and South Korea , to diversify resource origins and meet market entry conditions to the US required by the Inflation Reduction Act, and to cope with restrictions on key battery materials in the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act. Argus forecasts total demand for EV battery cathode material will reach 7.7mn t by 2034, from only 1mn t in 2022, with LFP expected to continue to take up the bigger share compared with ternary battery cathodes. Argus -assessed costs for cathode active material LFP were $13.95/kwh on 23 April, up from $12.31/kwh at the start of this year. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US-led carbon initiative misses launch date

23/04/24

US-led carbon initiative misses launch date

Houston, 23 April (Argus) — The Energy Transition Accelerator (ETA), a global initiative to use voluntary carbon market revenue to speed the decarbonization of developing countries' power sectors, has missed its planned Earth Day launch but continues to prepare for doing business. At the Cop 28 climate conference in Dubai last year, the initiative's leaders said they hoped to formally launch the program on 22 April 2024 . That didn't happen, but the program's leaders last week announced that the US climate think tank Center for Climate and Energy Solutions will serve as the ETA's new secretariat and that former US special presidential envoy for climate John Kerry will serve as the honorary chair of an eight-member senior consultative group that will advise the ETA's design and operations. The ETA plans to spend 2024 "building" on a framework for crediting projects they released last year. ETA leaders said the initiative could ultimately generate tens of billions of dollars in finances through 2035. The ETA also said the Dominican Republic had formed a government working group to "guide its engagement" as a potential pilot country for investments and that the Philippines would formally participate as an "observer country" rather than as a direct participant immediately. The ETA is still engaging Chile and Nigeria as potential pilot countries too, the initiative told Argus . The ETA is being developed by the US State Department, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Bezos Earth Fund and would be funded with money from the voluntary carbon market. The initiative's ultimate goal is to allow corporate and government offset buyers to help developing countries decarbonize their power sectors through large projects that accelerate the retirement of coal-fired power plants and build new renewable generation. As of now, the ETA's timeline for future changes and negotiations with countries and companies is unclear. The program's goals are ambitious, especially at a time when scrutiny of some voluntary carbon market projects from environmentalists has weighed on corporate offset demand. By Mia Westley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Inversión en autos eléctricos en México crecerá

23/04/24

Inversión en autos eléctricos en México crecerá

Mexico City, 23 April (Argus) — Las inversiones en México en ensamblaje de vehículos eléctricos (EV) y cadenas de suministro alcanzaron un máximo histórico en 2023 y se espera que crezcan en 2024, a pesar de una reciente desaceleración de la demanda global de EV y las próximas elecciones presidenciales. Se realizaron 96 inversiones en México durante 2023 en vehículos eléctricos y gastos relacionados con la electromovilidad, que alcanzaron los $5,600 millones, según el último informe de electromovilidad de la empresa mexicana de investigación Directorio Automotriz (DA). La empresa espera que esto se expanda en 11pc a $6,200 millones en 2024. Las expectativas de crecimiento global se han moderado para los vehículos eléctricos, pero DA señaló que la trayectoria sigue siendo positiva con proyecciones para las ventas globales de EV en 13.3 millones de unidades vendidas este año frente a los 9.6 millones vendidos en 2023. El año comenzó con varios anuncios de inversión. En febrero, Volkswagen dijo que invertirá $942 millones en su centro de electromovilidad de Puebla para agregar producción de EV. Magna, una empresa de piezas estructurales de EV, invertirá $166 millones para suministrar el complejo de General Motors en Ramos Arizpe, Coahuila. Seojin Mobility de Corea planea una inversión de hasta $260 millones para una planta de montaje de motores eléctricos en Escobedo, cerca de Monterrey, Nuevo León, con planes de completarla en febrero de 2025. Hay más anuncios de inversiones relacionadas con los vehículos eléctricos en el horizonte a finales de este año para empresas chinas como BYD, el principal competidor global de Tesla, así como Chirey Motors y SAIC, afirmó DA. El factor político El momento político en el país es importante, con elecciones presidenciales el 2 de junio y leyes electorales que limitan la participación de funcionarios gubernamentales en cualquier anuncio de inversión importante o evento relacionado desde el 1 de marzo. La perspectiva de la fabricación de automóviles chinos en suelo mexicano también está provocando nerviosismo entre los grupos comerciales estadounidenses que afirman que las empresas chinas están utilizando México como centro de representación para evitar aranceles. Aunque EE. UU. tiene un arancel de 27.5pc sobre los vehículos eléctricos chinos, incluso si se fabrican en suelo mexicano, las importaciones desde México de EV construidos con piezas chinas solo pagan un arancel de 2.5pc. "Pekín ya está utilizando a México como puerta trasera para eludir los aranceles de las importaciones a EE. UU. y está siguiendo el mismo plan de juego que casi destruyó las industrias del acero y solar de EE. UU.", dijo la Alianza para la Fabricación Estadounidense (AAM, por sus siglas en ingles) en un informe a finales de febrero. La presión sobre el gobierno de EE. UU. para tomar medidas está aumentando, con la presidencia y muchos asientos del congreso en juego en las elecciones de noviembre. A finales de 2023, en México había 262 empresas registradas relacionadas con el ensamblaje, la producción y la venta de vehículos eléctricos, según DA. Esta cifra se expandió en 19.6pc solo en los últimos cuatro meses, de acuerdo con la misma información. México podría producir 214,040 vehículos eléctricos en 2024, un aumento de 96pc comparado con 2023, luego de un crecimiento de 38pc el año pasado en 2022, estima DA. El principal anuncio hasta la fecha relacionado con los vehículos eléctricos en México sigue siendo el que hizo Tesla el 1 de marzo. La Gigafactoría México podría atraer hasta $15 mil millones, incluyendo inversiones adicionales. Pero el progreso en la Gigafactoría ha sido lento, luego de que Tesla no participó en una ceremonia en febrero, organizada por el gobernador del estado. Grupos ecologistas también se han quejado de su posible impacto en el suministro de agua en la región propensa a la sequía. Aunque la inversión en vehículos eléctricos está ganando terreno debido a factores como el nearshoring (relocalización de las cadenas de suministro más cerca de los mercados finales), no se garantiza un crecimiento continuo. La agencia de calificación Moody's ha mencionado recientemente una desaceleración global en inversiones como en las calificaciones de Nemak de México, líder en la fabricación de carcasas y soportes de aluminio para baterías de litio utilizadas en vehículos eléctricos. Mientras tanto, las ventas nacionales de vehículos eléctricos e híbridos en México continúan expandiéndose, subiendo en 75pc año tras año hasta 7,442 en enero, representando 6.6pc de todas las ventas nacionales de automóviles en el mes, según los datos de la agencia de estadísticas Inegi. Por James Young Planes recientes de inversión en EV y electromovilidad en México Anunciado Compañía Proyecto Inversión Ubicación Feb 23 Stellantis Producción de la van de carga EV RAM ProMaster 200 Saltillo, Coahuila Marzo 23 Tesla and OEM suppliers Tesla Gigafactoría e inversiones asociadas 15,000 Santa Catarina, Nuevo Leon Marzo 23 Jetour Planta de ensamblaje de vehículos híbridos y de combustión interna 3,000 Ramos Arizpe, Coahuila Feb 24 Volkswagen Centro estratégico para EV 942 Puebla Marzo 24 Magna Agregar dos divisiones para partes de EV 166 El bajío Marzo 24 BMW Construir planta de ensamblaje de baterías para EV 849 San Luis Potosí Marzo 24 Seojin Mobility Construir planta de motores para EV 260 Sonora Abril 24* ZF Group Centro de I+D en electromovilidad 200 Monterrey, Nuevo León — Anuncios de la compañías *Abierto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s Higashidori No.1 reactor faces further delays

23/04/24

Japan’s Higashidori No.1 reactor faces further delays

Osaka, 23 April (Argus) — Japanese utility Tohoku Electric Power has confirmed a further delay in reinforcement works at its 1,100MW Higashidori No.1 nuclear reactor, with its completion date unknown. The postponement in restarting the Higashidori reactor in northern Aomori prefecture would encourage Tohoku to secure replacement thermal fuels — such as LNG and coal — for an extended period, although the company is planning to resume another reactor in September. Tohoku previously aimed to complete the reinforcement work at Higashidori in the April 2024-March 2025 fiscal year. But the company needs more time to clear all the procedures for the assessment of basic earthquake ground motions and tsunamis, and to prepare for the plant inspection. It is still unclear when the company will complete the safety measures. The Higashidori reactor is undergoing inspections by Japan's nuclear regulation authority (NRA), based on stricter safety rules following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. The reactor will need to pass the safety checks and secure approval from local governments before restarting. Tohoku has three commercial reactors, including two at Onagawa in Miyagi prefecture and the Higashidori No.1 reactor, of which it applied to restart two. The 825MW Onagawa No.2 reactor has already cleared the NRA's safety inspections and obtained permission from local authorities to restart. The company is now planning to restart the Onagawa No.2 reactor in September . The possible return of the Onagawa No.2 reactor will help Tohoku reduce consumption of thermal fuels. The company used 2.76mn t of LNG in April-December 2023, up by 12pc from a year earlier, in the absence of all its nuclear reactors. But its coal consumption fell by 12pc to 5.68mn t during the period. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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