Preliminary Opec+ compliance at 101pc in August
Opec+ reached 101pc conformity with its pledge to remove 7.7mn b/d of production from the market in August, largely from an October 2018 baseline, according to three group delegates.
Opec members participating in the agreement were 102pc compliant with their obligations last month, and their non-Opec counterparts met 99pc of their commitments, a delegate said.
The figures are preliminary and will be reviewed and confirmed at the meetings of the Opec+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) that studies market conditions, and the group's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) that observes compliance. The JTC will meet virtually today at 14:00 Vienna time (12:00 GMT). The JMMC will meet tomorrow.
Argus estimated combined Opec+ compliance at 102pc in August, with Opec members achieving 104pc conformity and non-Opec countries meeting 99pc of their pledges.
The group transitioned to unwinding output cuts to 7.7mn b/d over August-December, down from the 9.6mn-9.7mn b/d it targeted in the May-July period. Monthly declines should be deeper than 7.7mn b/d in September, because some countries must compensate for overproducing between May and August.
The compensation mechanism has weighed heavily on quota busters. The UAE — which admitted it produced in excess of its target last month because of high domestic demand — cut all grade export allocations 30pc below nominations in October, and 25pc under buyer interest in November.
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US seeks to purchase 6mn bl for SPR
US seeks to purchase 6mn bl for SPR
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TMX is a fossil fuel subsidy of at least C$8.7bn: IISD
TMX is a fossil fuel subsidy of at least C$8.7bn: IISD
Calgary, 18 September (Argus) — Canada's newest crude pipeline to the country's west coast amounts to a fossil fuel subsidy of at least C$8.7bn ($6.4bn), a research and policy think-tank said. The federal government is unlikely to recover its C$34bn investment to construct the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) connecting oil producers in Alberta to the Pacific coast, qualifying the project as a major subsidy for the fossil fuel industry, according to the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) on Wednesday. This runs contrary to the government's policy to eliminate direct support for the oil and gas sector , a goal Justin Trudeau's Liberals said was achieved in 2023. The government was the first G20 country to hit this milestone, following a 2009 commitment by the group to reach the goal by 2025. The subsidy as it relates to TMX could be as high as C$18.7bn, the Canadian non-profit said, but noted the entire amount could still be recovered by increasing tolls and/or implementing a levy. This levy could be against either all producers, or all shippers, of crude in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), whether they use TMX or not, the IISD suggested. About 90pc of Canada's crude production comes from western Canada, with much of that derived from Alberta's oil sands region. "A levy in the range of C$1-2/bl . . . over a 10-year period would be sufficient to recover the entire cost of the subsidy and the loss to the Canadian taxpayer," according to the IISD. Alternatively, fixed tolls on TMX would need to be more than doubled to C$24.53/bl from C$11.37/bl to recover all capital costs for the line that went into service on 1 May this year, according to IISD's figures. Variable tolls would be added to this. The terms in the original contracts signed between shippers and then-owner Kinder Morgan were no longer appropriate as they did not reflect the rising risks of the project, said the IISD. Kinder Morgan suspended the project in 2018, which led to the Canadian government buying both the expansion project and the original 300,000 b/d Trans Mountain line from US midstream company that same year. The federal government has maintained its plan to sell the pipeline once operational, but the final tolls are yet to be determined. Whether the operator or shippers will bear the brunt of the massive cost overruns is also still unknown. Tolls, representing cash flows for any prospective buyer, will help dictate the price that the expanded Trans Mountain system will fetch. The IISD suggests a sale price is likely to be between C$17.6bn-26.6bn, resulting in a net loss to the government of between C$8.9bn-18bn assuming its cost of investment climbs to nearly C$36bn before a sale is reached. But despite warnings by opponents it would go underused, TMX has been as advertised, opening a new frontier for oil sands operators and disrupting trade flows throughout the Pacific Rim. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indian windfall tax on domestic crude output at zero
Indian windfall tax on domestic crude output at zero
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Indonesia issues regulation to build energy reserves
Indonesia issues regulation to build energy reserves
A strategic energy reserve comprising stocks of LPG, oil and gasoline could be ready by 2035 under a presidential decree, writes Prethika Nair Singapore, 17 September (Argus) — Indonesia's government has issued a presidential decree outlining plans to build strategic energy reserves, including LPG, by 2035. The decree sets out the goal of establishing stockpiles amounting to 9.64mn bl of gasoline, 10.17mn bl of oil and 525,800t of LPG within the next 11 years. "The government is aware of the importance of having sufficient energy reserves to handle risks such as global oil price fluctuations, natural disasters, or supply disruptions," Indonesian agency the National Energy Council's (NEC) secretary general, Djoko Siswanto, said on 6 September. "The provision of the [reserves] will be carried out in stages until 2035, according to the country's financial capabilities." Funds for establishing the reserves will come from the state budget and other legitimate resources, he said. The NEC will oversee the regulations while the energy ministry and companies with permits in the energy sector will manage the reserves, according to Djoko. Management includes procurement of supplies from domestic production or imports, as well as investment in infrastructure and maintenance, and the use and recovery of the reserves. The location of the reserves will be based on local geology, ease of distribution, spatial planning, supporting infrastructure and the potential for crises or emergencies, and where infrastructure is not sufficient, new facilities will be built, Djoko said. Indonesia aims to reach 1mn b/d of oil production and 12bn ft³/d (124bn m³/yr) of gas production by 2030. But its oil output fell to 606,000 b/d in 2023 from 612,000 b/d in 2022, energy ministry data show. The country's LPG imports amounted to about 6mn t in 2023, energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia says. This contrasts with imports of just over 7mn t, relatively unchanged from a year earlier, Kpler data show. The country imported around 369,000 b/d of gasoline and 29,000 b/d of crude. The energy ministry in August announced plans to boost oil and gas output by reactivating up to 1,500 idle wells, drilling more than 1,000 new wells a year and increasing recovery rates at existing wells to 50pc from 30pc. Indonesia gas production Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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