Venezuelan elections presage demise of Guaido era

Venezuela's widely disputed National Assembly elections on 6 December will hasten the demise of US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido's authority as the Opec country's interim president in early 2021.

The Guaido-led opposition and its international supporters that view President Nicolas Maduro as illegitimate have rejected the legislative elections as fraudulent, vowing to withhold recognition of the body.

Guaido's coalition is boycotting the elections in favor of a 7-12 December "popular consultation" designed to prolong his legitimacy and maintain his political relevance, particularly among Venezuela's sizable diaspora that is eligible to participate.

The current National Assembly that Guaido has headed since January 2019 under an agreement to rotate the presidency among the four major opposition parties was elected in December 2015 for a constitutional period of five years ending on 5 January 2021.

The parties — Voluntad Popular (VP), Accion Democratica (AD), Primero Justicia (PJ) and Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) — are beset by infighting that has helped to erode Guaido's popular support since he declared an interim presidency nearly two years ago.

Blunder upon blunder

Shortly after Guaido burst onto the political scene, the US imposed oil sanctions on Venezuela, accelerating a decline in production and exports. But a series of missteps — including a botched February 2019 humanitarian aid delivery campaign and an aborted 30 April 2019 coup — dashed expectations for a swift political transition, leaving Maduro firmly entrenched in power, with key support from Cuba, Russia, China, Iran and Turkey.

Numerous top members of Guaido's skeleton administration — including the "ad hoc" chair of a parallel board of national oil company PdV Luis Pacheco and outspoken UK envoy Vanessa Neumann — have resigned this year. And former political prisoner Leopoldo Lopez, considered the brains behind Guaido, has fled to Madrid.

The twilight of the Guaido era coincides with the end of the tumultuous administration of US president Donald Trump, whose vocal support for the Venezuelan cause helped him win Florida votes in the US presidential race in early November. The incoming administration of president-elect Joe Biden is expected to take a less confrontational approach toward Venezuela in close coordination with Brussels.

Maduro, who succeeded late president Hugo Chavez in 2013, has consistently disregarded Venezuela's 1999 constitution, but he has insisted that the assembly elections must take place as constitutionally mandated. Venezuela's rubber-stamp electoral authority (CNE) and supreme court have ruled that the elections are legal and obligatory.

The EU had urged the Maduro government to postpone the elections in order to establish credible conditions.

The new assembly will be expanded to 277 legislators compared with a current 167, based on a CNE decision in June that also authorized at least 87 political parties and organizations to field candidates.

Block the blockade

The government is working with the ruling socialist party (PSUV) to ensure a legislative majority that would facilitate the approval of an anti-blockade law granting Maduro unrestricted authority to sign new loan and joint venture deals with foreign investors. The new legislature could also pass a security law that would lay the groundwork to prosecute Guaido and other opposition figures on charges of treason and criminal conspiracy.

Turnout among Venezuelan voters struggling to make ends meet amid the Covid-19 pandemic and chronic shortages of gasoline and affordable food is expected to be low. Guaido's parallel referendum is not likely to draw widespread participation inside Venezuela either, partly because many eligible voters have no access to virtual voting platforms and fear in-person balloting. Recent opinion polls show that over two-thirds of eligible voters are disenchanted with both Maduro and Guaido.

Senior Maduro government officials shrug off concerns over abstention. "The 6 December elections are required constitutionally and how many voters show up is irrelevant because the results will be legal, although ideally we hope for high participation," a CNE official said.

"On 5 January, everything changes," a presidential palace official told Argus. "In the new assembly, Guaido and the opposition parties will no longer be able to impose their will."

Guaido has vowed to stay in Venezuela despite the risk of imprisonment or forced exile that has already befallen many other government foes. Up to 60pc of the opposition lawmakers elected in 2015 have already fled to the US, Spain, Colombia and other countries. "Many of the other 40pc still in Venezuela either are looking to mend relations with the Maduro government or are looking for ways to leave Venezuela with at least some economic security," a senior opposition party official told Argus.

Diosdado Cabello, a senior government figure standing for a seat in the new assembly, has vowed that Guaido and other government opponents will be prosecuted and imprisoned for what he calls "crimes" against Venezuelan democracy.