Peru presidential race tightens, markets cheer

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Electricity, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
11/05/21

Peru's right-wing presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori is closing in on leftist rival Pedro Castillo ahead of a 6 June run-off ballot, buoying financial markets.

The newest poll by CIT published today has the race virtually tied, with 38.2pc for Castillo and 37.3pc for Fujimori. The CIT poll, as well as three others published in recent days, found roughly a third of the electorate to be undecided or intending to cast a blank or spoiled ballot.

The stakes for investors across numerous commodities are high. Peru is the world's second leading copper producer and is South America's only LNG exporter.

Initial support for Castillo, a rural schoolteacher, has flattened since his surprise first-place victory in 11 April elections. If elected, Castillo says he would scrap Peru's 1993 constitution and review tax agreements that have underpinned investment in mines and energy projects for nearly 30 years. His Peru Libre party would nationalize strategic resource sectors.

Fujimori is the daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who ran Peru in the 1990s and was later jailed for human rights violations in his campaign to crush the Maoist Shining Path movement. If Keiko prevails next month, she would pardon him. She calls for tweaking legislation, including a plan for direct payments to residents who live in mining zones. Despite dogged accusations of corruption and a populist streak, Fujimori is the favorite of Peru's business community.

Brighter sol

The Peruvian sol appreciated by 2.36pc yesterday, its best daily performance in five years, and was up 1.1pc in early trading today.

The Peruvian stock market jumped by 3.87pc yesterday, following a 3.37pc increase on 7 May, erasing all losses for the year to date.

Mining stocks, which dominate the local bourse, were up strongly on the back of the polls, and the surge in base metal prices.

By Lucien Chauvin

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17/04/24

US reimposes Venezuela oil sanctions

Washington, 17 April (Argus) — The US administration today reimposed sanctions targeting Venezuela's oil exports and energy sector investments and set a deadline of 31 May for most foreign companies to wind down business with state-owned PdV. The US decision rescinds a sanctions waiver issued last October, which allowed Venezuela to sell oil freely to any buyer and to invite foreign investment in the country's energy sector. The waiver, which was due to expire on 18 April, was tied to Caracas' agreement to hold a competitive presidential election and to allow opposition politicians to contest it. Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro's government reneged on that deal by refusing to register leading opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado or an alternative candidate designated by her, a senior US official said. The US considered the potential effects on global energy markets and other factors in its decision, but "fundamentally, the decision was based on the actions and non-actions of the Venezuelan authorities," the official said. The separate waivers granted to Chevron and to oil field service companies Halliburton, SLB, Baker Hughes and Weatherford will remain in place. Chevron will be allowed to continue lifting oil from its joint venture with PdV, solely for imports into the US. US-bound Venezuelan crude volumes averaged 133,000 b/d last year. Chevron said its Venezuela output was 150,000 b/d at the end of 2023. Argus estimated Venezuela's crude output at 850,000 b/d in March, up by 150,000 b/d on the year. PdV said it will seek to change terms of its nine active joint ventures , starting with Spain's Repsol, in an effort to boost production. The reimposition of sanctions will primarily affect Venezuelan exports to India and China. India has emerged as a major new destination for Venezuelan crude since the US lifted sanctions in October, importing 152,000 b/d in March. There are two more Venezuelan cargoes heading to India and are expected to arrive before the 31 May deadline. The VLCC Caspar left the Jose terminal on 14 March and was expected to arrive at a yet-unknown west coast Indian port on 26 April. The Suezmax Tinos left Venezuela on 18 March and was due at Sikka on 30 April. By contrast, Chinese imports of Venezuelan Merey, often labeled as Malaysian diluted bitumen, have been lower since October. Independent refiners in Shandong, which benefited from wide discounts on the sanctioned Venezuelan crude, cut back imports to just a fraction of pre-relief levels. By contrast, state-controlled PetroChina was able to resume imports. The Merey discount to Brent already widened in anticipation of a possible reimposition of US sanctions. Reprieve expected for European companies Separate US authorizations previously issued to Repsol and to Italy's Eni to allow oil-for-debt deals with PdV and to enable a Shell project to import natural gas from Venezuela's Dragon field to Trinidad and Tobago are expected to remain in place. The US sanctions enforcers as a rule do not disclose the terms of private sanctions licenses, and the European companies were not immediately available to comment. The US would still consider future requests for sanctions waivers for specific energy projects, another senior official said. Repsol imported 23,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude into Spain last year and 29,000 b/d so far this year, according to Vortexa data. The last cargo to arrive was on 15 April. Hope springs eternal The US administration says it will consider lifting the sanctions again if Maduro's government allows opposition candidates to participate in the July presidential election. The US action today "should not be viewed as a final decision that we no longer believe Venezuela can hold competitive and inclusive elections," a third senior official said. "We will continue to engage with all stakeholders, including Maduro representatives, the democratic opposition, civil society and the international community to support the Venezuelan people's efforts to ensure a better future for Venezuela." By Haik Gugarats and Kuganiga Kuganeswaran Chinese imports of Venezuelan crude Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House advances Ukraine, Israel aid bills

17/04/24

US House advances Ukraine, Israel aid bills

Washington, 17 April (Argus) — The Republican-controlled US House of Representatives is preparing to advance a bill to extend military and economic aid to Ukraine, as Kyiv has complained about critical shortages of ammunition on the battlefield and has resorted to aerial attacks against refineries in Russia. The House is also advancing a separate bill to extend military aid to Israel and to pay for the rising cost of US operations in the Middle East, including the cost of providing maritime protection from the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Yet another bill would extend military aid to Taiwan and other US partners and allies in the Indo-Pacific region. The US Senate in February approved a bill providing around $60bn in military aid for Ukraine, $14bn for Israel, and $9bn in humanitarian aid to Gaza and other global crisis spots. House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) has, in effect, deconstructed the Senate bill into individual components in an effort to facilitate their passage in a chamber where his party has a two seat majority and the Republican lawmakers allied with former president Donald Trump oppose aid to Ukraine. In an effort to secure the Republican caucus' assent to the three foreign aid bills, Johnson is also planning to advance a separate bill including a hodgepodge of his party's policy priorities, such as a ban on social media network TikTok and sanctions against Iran. Yet another bill would advance draconian restrictions on immigration and strengthen the security of the US-Mexico border. None of the bills released today would require President Joe Biden to reconsider his pause on the issuance of new LNG export licenses. Johnson's legislative proposal has immediately drawn opposition from some members of his party, two of which said they would move to oust him as speaker. Johnson assumed his position after his predecessor Kevin McCarthy was ousted in October following a compromise government funding deal with House Democrats. "Every true conservative America First patriot in the House should vote against the rule for this borrowed foreign aid bill with no border security!" congressman Bob Good (R-Virginia) said via X social network. The foreign aid bills will have to have the backing of the Democratic caucus and a sufficient number of Republicans in order to pass. Biden said he supports the three foreign aid bills proposed by Johnson. "The House must pass the package this week and the Senate should quickly follow," Biden said. The majority-Democratic Senate leaders likewise have signaled willingness to consider separate aid bills so long as those do not significantly differ from the version passed by the Senate. The only major differences in the House version of the Ukraine aid bill is a requirement that the US provide no more than 50pc of the total economic assistance extended to Ukraine by western countries, as well as a requirement for Ukraine to repay the $9.5bn in direct economic support under the bill. Congress since February 2022 has allocated $114bn in aid to Ukraine, including $66bn for military supplies. The EU in the same period has allocated $150bn to Ukraine, mostly in economic support. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

June deadline set for Citgo auction bids

17/04/24

June deadline set for Citgo auction bids

Houston, 17 April (Argus) — Bidders for Citgo's US refining assets have until 11 June to submit offers for the company's 805,000 b/d of refining capacity and associated assets, with a tentative sale hearing set for 15 July. Documents filed Tuesday in the US District Court for the District of Delaware set 11 June as the deadline for interested parties to submit final binding bids after non-binding bids were received 22 January. The court began the auction process for Citgo's parent PdV Holding (PdVH) in October, part of the process of satisfying debts owed by Venezuelan-state owned oil company PdV. The court will file a notice of a successful bid "as soon as reasonably practicable" following the 11 June deadline and selection of a successful bidder. No date has been set for the filing of objections to the sale or replies to the objections before the tentative 15 July hearing. The legal wrangling over Citgo is unlikely to conclude even if the Delaware court successfully executes the sale as 27 businesses have filed claims against Citgo amounting to more than $21bn. The scale of Citgo's operations in the US are also a challenge to any potential buyer. Few companies look ready to buy the company's three refineries, three lubricants plants and retail and midstream assets. The assets have been valued by various analysts anywhere between $6.5bn and $40bn, with a lofty valuation potentially deterring bidders. But the auction process itself has been the main cause for concern. Independent refiner PBF Energy's chief executive Matthew Lucey previously called the auction a "quagmire" , considering its ties to a complex geopolitical situation in Venezuela, saying he did not expect the sale to go anywhere in the near term. Marathon Petroleum expressed similar disdain. "We're not interested in the auction process," Marathon chief executive Michael Hennigan said on an earnings call in October . By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Idemitsu books rare US Gulf-Vancouver HVO cargo

17/04/24

Idemitsu books rare US Gulf-Vancouver HVO cargo

New York, 17 April (Argus) — Japanese oil company Idemitsu provisionally hired a medium range (MR) tanker to carry hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) from the US Gulf coast to Vancouver on 16 April, a sign of the growing HVO trade from the region into west coast North America. Idemitsu put the Stolt Sisto MR on subjects for a US Gulf coast-Vancouver voyage from 20-25 April at $2.35mn lumpsum. The fixture may be part of an agreement under which Vertex Energy supplies Idemitsu's California-based subsidiary, Idemitsu Apollo, with all of its renewable diesel production from its plant in Mobile, Alabama. The plant's exports are targeting "growing regional markets in the western United States and Canada", according to Vertex. High freight costs for US domestic shipments because of the Jones Act may be encouraging Idemitsu to focus on the Canadian market. In comparison, freight for a US-flagged MR on a New Orleans-Los Angeles voyage was equivalent to $4.34mn, nearly double the cost of a voyage to more distant Vancouver. "I think [demand from Vancouver] will keep expanding with the subsidies/grants," a shipbroker said. "There is not much production in Vancouver, just Parkland [refinery]." Canadian oil company Suncor typically books one MR vessel a month to carry HVO from the US Gulf coast to Vancouver, with two charters in October 2023 standing out as a particularly active month for the trade, according to ship fixtures compiled by Argus . But Idemitsu has been "jumping in on the action" in recent months, according to the shipbroker, provisionally hiring at least one MR tanker on the spot market in January and February before yesterday's deal. Vancouver buyers are also getting HVO from Asia-Pacific suppliers, and countries like South Korea could become increasingly competitive in the renewable trade overall as they ramp up their sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and HVO production in the coming years. Vancouver imported around 29,500 b/d of HVO in January 2024, including 16,612 b/d from the US, 7,548 b/d from South Korea, and 5,351 b/d from Taiwan, according to Kpler data. By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Sheinbaum pledges $13bn for Mexican energy transition

17/04/24

Sheinbaum pledges $13bn for Mexican energy transition

Mexico City, 17 April (Argus) — Mexican presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum pledged to invest $13.6bn in electricity infrastructure through 2030, with a key focus on Mexico's energy transition. "We are going to accelerate the energy transition with new solar, wind and hydropower projects," Sheinbaum told a meeting of business associations in Merida, Yucatan, on 15 April. Former Mexico City mayor Sheinbaum is ahead of opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez for the 2 June presidential election, according to recent polls. While Sheinbaum is the continuity candidate for President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's Morena party, she has been a vocal supporter of clean energy development in contrast to Lopez Obrador's pursuit of conventional power projects and a restriction on private sector renewable energy development. "We are developing a national energy plan not just to 2030 but towards 2050 to coincide with our international climate change commitments," Sheinbaum said. Mexico committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35pc by 2030 from a 2000 baseline at the Cop 27 climate talks in 2022. Key projects through 2030 include 13.66GW of new power capacity across three hydropower plants, the third and fourth phases of the 1GW Puerto Penasco solar plant, two gas-fired combined cycle plants, cogeneration plants for the Cadereyta and Salina Cruz refineries, and additional wind and solar capacity. In addition to large scale electricity projects, Sheinbaum also committed to a build out of distributed generation, calling for the installation of solar panels in residential and commercial property. But while Sheinbaum pledged her "commitment to reaping the benefits of the historic moment Mexico is seeing in terms of foreign direct investment," she also recommitted to cap private sector electricity participation at 47pc. Foreign direct investment into Mexico hit $36.1bn in the fourth quarter of last year, 22pc above the same period in 2022, but investment into the energy sector has tanked under Lopez Obrador's statist energy policies, according to the latest statistics from the economy ministry. Lopez Obrador's government has largely focused on fossil fuel-based electricity generation, including the construction of new gas-fired combined cycle plants. But despite a commitment to build at least five combined cycle plants during his administration, Sheinbaum confirmed that only the Merida plant is due to launch by the end of this year. Launch dates for the Valladolid, San Luis Colorado, Gonzalez Ortega and Tuxpan plants have been pushed back to 2025-2030. By Rebecca Conan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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