Peru presidential race tightens, markets cheer

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Electricity, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
11/05/21

Peru's right-wing presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori is closing in on leftist rival Pedro Castillo ahead of a 6 June run-off ballot, buoying financial markets.

The newest poll by CIT published today has the race virtually tied, with 38.2pc for Castillo and 37.3pc for Fujimori. The CIT poll, as well as three others published in recent days, found roughly a third of the electorate to be undecided or intending to cast a blank or spoiled ballot.

The stakes for investors across numerous commodities are high. Peru is the world's second leading copper producer and is South America's only LNG exporter.

Initial support for Castillo, a rural schoolteacher, has flattened since his surprise first-place victory in 11 April elections. If elected, Castillo says he would scrap Peru's 1993 constitution and review tax agreements that have underpinned investment in mines and energy projects for nearly 30 years. His Peru Libre party would nationalize strategic resource sectors.

Fujimori is the daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who ran Peru in the 1990s and was later jailed for human rights violations in his campaign to crush the Maoist Shining Path movement. If Keiko prevails next month, she would pardon him. She calls for tweaking legislation, including a plan for direct payments to residents who live in mining zones. Despite dogged accusations of corruption and a populist streak, Fujimori is the favorite of Peru's business community.

Brighter sol

The Peruvian sol appreciated by 2.36pc yesterday, its best daily performance in five years, and was up 1.1pc in early trading today.

The Peruvian stock market jumped by 3.87pc yesterday, following a 3.37pc increase on 7 May, erasing all losses for the year to date.

Mining stocks, which dominate the local bourse, were up strongly on the back of the polls, and the surge in base metal prices.

By Lucien Chauvin

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25/04/24

US reimposes Venezuela oil sanctions

The US' decision reopens the door for Chinese independent refiners to procure Venezuelan Merey at wide discounts to other crude grades, writes Haik Gugarats Washington, 25 April (Argus) — The US administration reimposed sanctions targeting Venezuela's oil exports and energy sector investments on 17 April, and set a deadline of 31 May for most foreign companies to wind down business with state-owned oil firm PdV. The decision rescinds a sanctions waiver issued in October, which allowed Venezuela to sell oil freely to any buyer and to invite foreign investment in the country's energy sector. The waiver was due to expire on 18 April, with an extension dependent on Caracas upholding a pledge to hold free and fair elections. Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro's government reneged on that deal by refusing to register leading opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado or an alternative candidate designated by her, a senior US official says. The US considered the potential effects on global energy markets and other factors in its decision but "fundamentally the decision was based on the actions and non-actions of the Venezuelan authorities", the official says. China's imports of Venezuelan Merey — often labelled as diluted bitumen — decreased following the instigation of the waiver in October. Independent refiners in Shandong previously benefited from wide discounts on the sanctioned crude, but they drastically cut back their Merey imports as prices rose. Meanwhile, state-controlled PetroChina was able to resume imports under the waiver. The reimposition of sanctions this month was widely expected and Merey's discount to Ice Brent began to widen in early April, before the decision was announced. Merey's discount to Brent averaged $9/bl in March, but had reached $12/bl by the start of April and $13/bl after the reimposition of sanctions was formally announced. Buyers are expecting final deals for May at discounts of $14/bl or lower, and for prices to drop by a further $3-4/bl in the short term. Longer-term prices for Merey will be influenced by supply and prices for Iranian crude — another mainstay of Shandong independents. Venezuela's crude output reached 850,000 b/d in March, up by 150,000 b/d on the year, according to Argus estimates. PdV has begun looking to change the terms of its nine active joint ventures with international oil companies, in an effort to keep production elevated now sanctions are back in place. Chasing the deadline The end of the waiver will affect Venezuela's exports to India as much as those to China. India emerged as a major destination for Venezuelan crude after sanctions were lifted, importing 152,000 b/d in March. Two more Venezuelan cargoes are expected to arrive in India before the 31 May deadline. The 2mn bl Caspar left Venezuela's Jose port on 14 March and is expected to arrive in India on 26 April, and Suezmax vessel Tinos is due at India's Sikka port on 30 April. Separate sanctions waivers granted to Chevron and oil field service companies Halliburton, SLB, Baker Hughes and Weatherford will remain in place. Chevron can continue lifting oil from its joint venture with PdV, solely for imports to the US. Oil-for-debt deals between PdV and Spain's Repsol and Italy's Eni are expected to be allowed to continue. Repsol imported 23,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude into Spain last year and 29,000 b/d so far this year, according to data from oil analytics firm Vortexa. And a waiver enabling a Shell project to import natural gas from Venezuela's Dragon field to Trinidad and Tobago is expected to remain in place. The US says it would consider other requests for sanctions waivers for specific energy projects. It will consider lifting sanctions again if Maduro's government allows opposition candidates to participate in the July presidential election. The resumption of sanctions "should not be viewed as a final decision that we no longer believe Venezuela can hold competitive and inclusive elections", a US official says. Chinese imports of Venezuelan crude Venezuelan crude exports Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

LNG Energy eyes sanctions-hit Venezuela oil blocks

25/04/24

LNG Energy eyes sanctions-hit Venezuela oil blocks

Caracas, 25 April (Argus) — A Canadian firm plans to revive two onshore oil blocks in Venezuela, but the conditional deals signed with struggling state-owned PdV come just as the US is reinstating broad sanctions on the South American country. LNG Energy Group's Venezuela unit agreed two deals with PdV to boost output in five fields in the Nipa-Nardo-Niebla and Budare-Elotes blocks, which produce about 3,000 b/d of light- to medium-grade crude, the company said on Wednesday. The Canadian company, which operates in neighboring Colombia, would receive 50-56pc of production of the blocks. Venezuela's oil ministry declined to comment. But finalizing the contracts depends on providing required investment to develop the fields within 120 days of the contract signing on 17 April, LNG Energy said. And the signing came on the same day as the US reimposed oil sanctions on Venezuela and gave most companies until 31 May to wind down business. LNG Energy Group said it intends to comply with existing and upcoming US sanctions, noting that the conditional contracts were executed within the terms of the temporary lifting of sanctions — general license 44 — but it will abide by the new license 44A. The reimposition of US sanctions on Venezuela prohibits new investment in the country's energy sector, at the threat of US criminal and economic penalties. "The company will assess in the coming days the applicability of license 44A to its intended operations in Venezuela and determine the most appropriate course of action," LNG Energy said. "The company intends to operate in full compliance with the applicable sanctions regimes." The two blocks are in the adjacent Anzoategui and Monagas states, part of the Orinoco extra heavy oil belt. Most of Venezuela's output is medium- to heavy-grade crude. Both PdV and Chevron have drilling rigs working in those two states, in separate workover and drilling campaigns. Venezuela is now producing above 800,000 b/d, after the US allowed Chevron to increase production and investment under separate waivers. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US economic growth slows to 1.6pc in 1Q

25/04/24

US economic growth slows to 1.6pc in 1Q

Houston, 25 April (Argus) — The US economy in the first quarter grew at a 1.6pc annual pace, slower than expected, while a key measure of inflation accelerated. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) slowed from a 3.4pc annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The first-quarter growth number, the first of three estimates for the period, compares with analyst forecasts of about a 2.5pc gain. Personal consumption slowed to a 2.5pc annual rate in the first quarter from a 3.3pc pace in the fourth quarter, partly reflecting lower spending on motor vehicles and gasoline and other energy goods. Gross private domestic investment rose by 3.2pc, with residential spending up 13.9pc after a 2.8pc expansion in the fourth quarter. Government spending growth slowed to 1.2pc from 4.6pc. Private inventories fell and imports rose, weighing on growth. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve closely follows, rose by 3.7pc following 2pc annual growth in the fourth quarter, although consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics said revisions to the data should pull the index lower in coming months. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting its target lending rate in September following sharp increases in 2022 and early 2023 to fight inflation that surged to a high of 9.1pc in June 2022. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's MinRes posts higher 1Q spodumene output

25/04/24

Australia's MinRes posts higher 1Q spodumene output

Singapore, 25 April (Argus) — Perth-based major lithium and iron ore producer Mineral Resources (MinRes) has reported higher total spodumene concentrate output from its sites in January-March, and higher spodumene prices later in the quarter. Total attributable spodumene concentrate production of the firm across its assets rose to 170,000 dry metric tonnes (dmt) (see table for detailed breakdown), up by 3.7pc on the quarter and by 63pc on the year, according to the firm's latest quarterly activity report. Total attributable spodumene concentrate shipped volumes fell by 2.9pc on the quarter but rose by 50pc on the year to 166,000dmt. MinRes has an ambitious target of 1mn t/yr of lithium attributable within the next four years, said its managing director Chris Ellison last month during the firm's half-year results presentation. The firm has been aggressively expanding, several delegates told Argus at the Tribeca Future Facing Commodities conference held in Singapore on 26 March. The firm last month agreed to buy fellow developer Poseidon Nickel's concentrator plant in Western Australia as it seeks to retrofit it for lithium processing. MinRes' Mount Marion site saw higher output, driven by higher plant utilisation and improved ore recoveries as the firm continues to advance its plant improvement initiatives. The realised price for spodumene concentrate out of its Mount Marion site was at $718/dmt on a 4.2pc-grade basis, which was above the product's year-to-date fob costs of A$518/dmt ($338/dmt). The realised price translates to $1,048/dmt for 6pc-grade lithium concentrate (spodumene), said the firm. The firm did not process the spodumene concentrate produced from its Wodgina site during the quarter into lithium battery chemicals, citing "prevailing pricing dynamics", but instead resumed spodumene concentrate spot sales. The realised spodumene concentrate price at the site came in at $974/dmt on 5.6pc-grade basis, which translates to $1,028/dmt for 6pc-grade lithium concentrate (spodumene). The lithium battery chemical realised price, excluding value added tax, came in at $11,098/t. MinRes in November 2023 finalised the acquisition of the Bald Hill lithium mine from Alita Resources. January-March was the mine's first full production quarter, hence output was dragged down by limited availability of higher-grade feed, but this is expected to recover in April-June, said the firm. The realised spodumene concentrate price at the Bald Hill site was $878/dmt on 5.1pc-grade basis, which translates to $1,016/dmt for 6pc-grade spodumene concentrate. Argus -assessed prices for 6pc grade spodumene concentrate dipped to $1,080-1,180/t cif China on 23 April, from $1,100-1,200/t cif China a week earlier. Salts producers reduced spodumene bid prices because of a fall in salts prices two weeks earlier. By Joseph Ho MinRes lithium performance Jan-Mar '24 Oct-Dec '23 Jan-Mar '23 Spodumene concentrate production (k dmt) Mt Marion (50pc attributable basis) 91 83 60 Wodgina (50pc attributable basis) 49 55 44 Bald Hill (100pc attributable basis) 30 26 NA Total 170 164 104 Spodumene concentrate shipments (k dmt) Mt Marion (50pc attributable basis) 76 86 62 Wodgina (50pc attributable basis) 64 65 49 Bald Hill (100pc attributable basis) 26 20 NA Total 166 171 111 Lithium battery chemical (t) Wodgina production (50pc attributable basis) 6,793 6,798 3,246 Wodgina sales (50pc attributable basis) 6,954 6,474 1,504 Source: MinRes MinRes previously owned 40pc of the Wodgina project, which increased to 50pc starting from 18 October 2023. Figures for Wodgina before 18 October 2023 were on 40pc attributable basis. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesia's Pertamina to complete gasoline unit in Aug

25/04/24

Indonesia's Pertamina to complete gasoline unit in Aug

Singapore, 25 April (Argus) — Indonesian state-controlled refiner Pertamina aims to finish building its new 90,000 b/d residual fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC) in the Balikpapan refinery in August, the firm said. The RFCC is a gasoline production unit, which typically uses residual fuel as a feedstock. The unit will be able to produce propylene, LPG and 92R gasoline that will meet the Euro V specifications, said Pertamina last week, without disclosing further details such as the start-up date. The newly built RFCC unit will be the largest in Indonesia, with the second-largest being the 83,000 b/d RFCC in Balongan and the third-largest the 54,000 b/d RFCC in Cilacap. The new RFCC will also help reduce Indonesia's reliance on gasoline imports. Indonesia currently imports around 9mn-11mn bl/month of gasoline, making it the largest gasoline buyer in the Asia-Pacific. The new RFCC will increase Pertamina's gasoline production by a conservative estimate of 45,000 b/d or 1.3mn bl, or around 10pc of Pertamina's current import demand, according to estimates from an oil analyst. The installation of the new RFCC is part of Pertamina's Refinery Development Master Plan (RDMP), which will take place in two phases. The first phase includes revamping existing units at the Balikpapan refinery, such as the crude distillation unit, vacuum distillation unit, and hydrocracking unit. It also involves building new units, such as the aforementioned RFCC, a gasoline hydrotreater, diesel hydrotreater, and naphtha hydrotreater. The second phase includes building a new residue desulphurisation unit. The RDMP also includes expanding the capacity of the Balikpapan refinery from 260,000 b/d to 350,000 b/d, said Pertamina's chief executive officer Nicke Widyawati. The Balikpapan expansion is expected to be completed in May. By Aldric Chew Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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