Fertilizer dry bulk rates continue rising streak
Dry bulk fertilizer freight rates have continued to rebound this week, with the average rising across a select basket for three weeks in a row since 22 April.
Argus' selected basket of fertilizer freight rates — including urea from Algeria to Brazil, Russian MAP to Brazil, potash from the Red Sea to India, and sulphur from the Black Sea to north Africa — rose to $34.88/t yesterday, up by $1/t on a week earlier.
This marks the third consecutive rise of the average from $31.25/t as of 22 April.
The average basket rate has rebounded to levels at the start of April. The average had posted five weeks of successive drops to 22 April, falling from the recent peak of $39.38/t on 18 March (see chart).
But a combination of factors has supported freight rates in recent weeks, particularly the improving macroeconomic climate and global trade, and a surge in iron ore demand in China.
Vessel owners are also asking for premiums above market rates for shipment to India, following port force majeure declarations and the possibility of vessel quarantines at following destinations, contributing to rising dry bulk rates.
The China-India route is one of the most important in the dry bulk fertilizer market, with Argus' average assessments for shipments of 60,000t of urea and 45,000-55,000t of DAP on the route hitting $28.50/t this week, up from $24.10/t at the start of April.
Latest quotes remain firm, with indications today for Middle East-Brazil urea hitting $58-60/t, up from the mid-$40s/t at the start of April.
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Singapore's MPA, IEA unite on maritime decarbonisation
Singapore's MPA, IEA unite on maritime decarbonisation
Singapore, 17 April (Argus) — The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) and the IEA have signed an initial deal to push the transition to zero and near zero emission fuels, while working on technology as well as digitalisation to meet the maritime decarbonisation agenda. The agreement, signed by MPA chief executive Teo Eng Dih and IEA executive director Faith Birol, was announced at the Singapore Maritime Week 2024 (SMW) this week. "Greater international collaboration in maritime and energy industries is critical for international shipping to meet international decarbonisation goals," Teo said. "Shipping is one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise and we need to spur development and deployment of new technologies to slow and then reverse the rise in its emissions," said IEA chief economist Tim Gould. "This will require strong collaboration at a national and international level." Training programmes will be built to support the adoption of new fuels. There will also be partnerships made towards fuel-related projects and initiatives such as the International Maritime Organisation-Singapore NextGen project. The IEA plans to open its first regional co-operation centre in Singapore, which will be its first regional office outside of its headquarters in Paris, France. By Mahua Chakravarty Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Gulf lowest-cost green ammonia in 2030: Report
US Gulf lowest-cost green ammonia in 2030: Report
New York, 16 April (Argus) — The US Gulf coast will likely be the lowest cost source of green ammonia to top global bunkering ports Singapore and Rotterdam by 2030, according to a study by independent non-profits Rocky Mountain Institute and the Global Maritime Forum. Green ammonia in Singapore is projected to be sourced from the US Gulf coast at $1,100/t, Chile at $1,850/t, Australia at $1,940/t, Namibia at $2,050/t and India at $2,090/t very low-sulphur fuel oil equivalent (VLSFOe) in 2030. Singapore is also projected to procure green methanol from the US Gulf coast at $1,330/t, China at $1,640/t, Australia at $2,610/t and Egypt at $2,810/t VLSFOe in 2030. The US Gulf coast would be cheaper for both Chinese bio-methanol and Egyptian or Australian e-methanol. But modeling suggests that competition could result in US methanol going to other ports, particularly in Europe, unless the Singaporean port ecosystem moves to proactively secure supply, says the study. In addition to space constraints imposed by its geography, Singapore has relatively poor wind and solar energy sources, which makes local production of green hydrogen-based-fuels expensive, says the study. Singapore locally produced green methanol and green ammonia are projected at $2,910/t and $2,800/t VLSFOe, respectively, in 2030, higher than imports, even when considering the extra transport costs. The study projects that fossil fuels would account for 47mn t VLSFOe, or 95pc of Singapore's marine fuel demand in 2030. The remaining 5pc will be allocated between green ammonia (about 1.89mn t VLSFOe) and green methanol (3.30mn t VLSFOe). Rotterdam to pull from US Gulf Green ammonia in Rotterdam is projected to be sourced from the US Gulf coast at $1,080/t, locally produced at $2,120/t, sourced from Spain at $2,150/t and from Brazil at $2,310/t. Rotterdam is also projected to procure green methanol from China at $1,830/t, Denmark at $2,060/t, locally produce it at $2,180/t and from Finland at $2,190/t VLSFOe, among other countries, but not the US Gulf coast . The study projects that fossil fuels would account for 8.1mn t VLSFOe, or 95pc of Rotterdam's marine fuel demand in 2030. The remaining 5pc will be allocated between green ammonia, at about 326,000t, and green methanol, at about 570,000t VLSFOe. Rotterdam has a good renewable energy potential, according to the study. But Rotterdam is also a significant industrial cluster and several of the industries in the port's hinterland are seeking to use hydrogen for decarbonisation. As such, the port is expected to import most of its green hydrogen-based fuel supply. Though US-produced green fuels are likely to be in high demand, Rotterdam can benefit from EU incentives for hydrogen imports, lower-emission fuel demand created by the EU emissions trading system and FuelEU Maritime. But the EU's draft Renewable Energy Directive could limit the potential for European ports like Rotterdam to import US green fuels. The draft requirements in the Directive disallow fuel from some projects that benefit from renewable electricity incentives, like the renewable energy production tax credit provided by the US's Inflation Reduction Act, after 2028. If these draft requirements are accepted in the final regulation, they could limit the window of opportunity for hydrogen imports from the US to Rotterdam to the period before 2028, says the study. By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Urea prices remain under pressure on latest sales
Urea prices remain under pressure on latest sales
Amsterdam, 16 April (Argus) — Price indications for urea in north Africa and from the Black Sea have fallen, while fresh sales for Nigerian urea have taken place at $255/t fob, as the market continues to shrug off tensions in the Middle East. Nigerian producer Dangote has sold two 30,000t cargoes of granular urea, probably at around $255/t fob for loading in the second half of this month. Bids were heard in the low $250s/t fob and below last week. Indications for Egyptian granular urea to European markets have slipped to $300-305/t fob with bids at $295/t fob and below. Argus assessed urea at $305-310/t fob Egypt for Europe yesterday. Indications for Algerian urea to Europe broadly span $300-310/t fob. A supplier has sold a small lot of Turkmen granular urea at around $260/t fob Poti for loading in the first half of next month, down from offers around $270/t fob at the end of last week. US loaded barge prices have also slipped to $300-310/short ton fob Nola, framed by bids and offers, having traded at $311/st fob yesterday. Full-April barges traded at $304/st and $305/st fob earlier today. The physical urea market has mostly brushed aside the intensifying tensions in the Middle East, after Iran fired drones and missiles at Israel on 13 April, with two cargoes probably concluding lower at $255/t fob Iran on 15 April . Iran exported about 5mn t of urea last year, while the Middle East accounted for 19mn t out of 52mn t of global trade, Argus data show. By Harry Minihan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India’s GSFC seeks revised DAP offers
India’s GSFC seeks revised DAP offers
London, 16 April (Argus) — Indian importer GSFC has asked for revised offers under its 9 April tender to buy 50,000t of DAP. Three trading firms made initial offers and are now negotiating with GSFC. GSFC wants their revised offers submitted by 18 April. The firm had sought offers for 25,000t of natural-coloured DAP and 25,000t of coffee-coloured/brown DAP for May arrival at Mundra/Kandla on India's northwest coast. The lowest offer was around $542/t cfr. GSFC will now accept shipment in May with arrival after the end of the month. DAP prices in India have fallen from the mid-$590s/t cfr in early March as the resumption of Chinese exports encouraged trading firms to offer their lowers in successive tenders. But Indian DAP buying has been limited to state-owned importers. The private sector has stayed on the sidelines while prices remain above the breakeven level of around $509/t cfr, given the DAP nutrient-based subsidy of 21,676 rupees/t for April-September and the maximum retail price of Rs27,000/t. Recent DAP spot offers from trading firms have been as low as around $540/t cfr India. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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