Clean energy investment growth too slow: IEA
The IEA said today that the $750bn of investments that it projects will roll into clean energy technologies and efficiency this year is "far below" what is needed.
"Clean energy investment would need to triple in the 2020s to put the world on track to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, thereby keeping the door open for a 1.5C degree stabilisation of the rise in global temperatures," the agency said in its latest World Energy Investment report.
It expects an overall 10pc year on year rise in global energy investments, to $1.9 trillion, reversing most of last year's pandemic-inspired drop and with a continuing shift towards electricity.
This year is on course to be the sixth year in a row that investment in the power sector exceeds that in traditional oil and gas supply, the IEA said, noting that it projected 8pc rise in upstream oil and gas investment, to $350bn, still keeps this below the level seen before Covid-19.
"The majors are holding oil and gas spending flat on aggregate in 2021, despite recovering prices," the IEA said. "Meanwhile, some national oil companies are stepping up investment, raising the possibility of increased market share if demand continues to grow."
It also said that while last year only around 1pc of capital spending by the oil and gas industry was in clean energy investments, this could rise to 4pc this year globally and "well above 10pc for some of the leading European companies".
It expects global power sector investments to increase by around 5pc this year, to a record of more than $820bn. Of the $530bn to be spent on new generation capacity, renewables will account for 70pc.
"That money now goes further than ever in financing clean electricity, with a dollar spent on solar PV deployment today resulting in four times more electricity than 10 years ago, thanks to greatly improved technology and falling costs," the IEA said.
But it noted that "coal is not out of the picture", and expects a 9pc year-on-year rise in investment after a steeper fall last year.
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Spain-Portugal congestion income up by 554pc in March
Spain-Portugal congestion income up by 554pc in March
London, 19 April (Argus) — The spread between the Spanish and Portuguese spot index prices has widened in the first quarter of 2024, with Portugal clearing at the lowest price in Europe in March, Iberian power exchange Omie reported. Spanish and Portuguese day-ahead market prices have cleared at larger spreads between them compared with the first quarter of 2023, Omie data show. Congestion income between the two at times of decoupling more than doubled on the year in January, but fell in February. March registered the largest decoupling, supporting congestion income to 554pc compared with February, and was up by 172pc from March 2023. Negotiated output in the intra-day market auctions increased by 19.6pc on the month, and rose by 10pc from March last year. But lower prices pushed economic volume down by 43pc on the month, and by almost 76pc on the year. The volume of negotiated power in the day-ahead market in the first quarter of 2024 was up by 5.49TWh from the same period in 2023. March accounted for the largest increase, rising to 21.52TWh from 19.39TWh in March 2023. 1Q24 spot index price down Spot index prices rose by €4.64/MWh on the year in January, but fell during the rest of the first quarter. February cleared at an average discount to the previous year of €93.92/MWh, and March of €70.02/MWh. Combined the first quarter of 2024 has cleared below half of the same period in 2023. Portugal cleared at the lowest average price among European day-ahead market indexes in March, followed by Spain at a €1.03/MWh premium. The Spanish spot has cleared at an average of €5.82/MWh so far in April, sharply below the €73.77/MWh it cleared at in April 2023. This is also below expectations in the over-the-counter (OTC) market, as the April contract expired at €23.55/MWh at the end of March. The Spanish spot also cleared below zero for the first time . Gas-fired output down, hydropower generation up CCGT generation has averaged 2.6GW in the first quarter of 2024, down from 4GW in the same quarter last year. Average nuclear output also fell by 800MW to 6GW compared with the same period. And the trend has continued so far in April, with nuclear generation averaging 4.9GW, down from 6.3GW in April 2023. Solar photovoltaic (PV) output increased by around 240MW, while wind generation remained similar to the previous year's levels. Operational wind capacity increased to 30.29GW from 30.18GW over the quarter, and PV to 25.22GW from 25.16GW. Hefty rainfall over the first quarter has supported an increase of hydropower output by 1.5GW. And the trend of higher hydropower generation has carried on so far in April, supported by stocks at around 75pc, the highest in a decade . Hydropower has averaged 6.2GW so far in April from 2.36GW in the same month in 2023. But wind generation is down by around 500MW compared with the same period last year. By Thess Mostoles Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US restricts future oil leasing in NPR-A
US restricts future oil leasing in NPR-A
Washington, 19 April (Argus) — President Joe Biden's administration today finalized a rule to prohibit future oil leasing on nearly half of the 23mn-acre National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPR-A), adding to a flurry of recent environmental regulations that have frustrated oil interests. The rule will make it harder for oil producers to expand beyond development in the northeast section of NPR-A, where ConocoPhillips is developing its $8bn Willow drilling project. The rule outright bans new leasing on 10.6mn acres of the reserve, including around the ecologically sensitive Teshekpuk lake "special area" that is believed to hold large volumes of crude. The rule also restricts future leasing on an additional 2mn acres in the NPR-A that includes other special areas. "These natural wonders demand our protection," Biden said. "I am proud that my administration is taking action to conserve more than 13mn acres in the western Arctic." The US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) said it received more than 100,000 comments on its proposal to limit oil leasing in the NPR-A, a federal area established in 1923 where commercial oil production began only in 2015. The restrictions came after former president Donald Trump tried to increase drilling in the NPR-A through a plan to allow leasing on an additional 7mn acres, including around Teshekpuk lake. With the rule complete, BLM said it plans to solicit input on whether to revise the boundaries of the "special areas" and identify additional lands in NPR-A that could qualify for protection. Biden administration officials previously described the rule as creating a "one-way ratchet" for conservation that a new administration could not reverse. The rule will not affect existing oil and gas leases in NPR-A, including Biden's decision in 2023 to approve the Willow project, which is expected to reach a peak output of 180,000 b/d and that environmentalists strongly opposed. BLM said the 10.6mn acres of NPR-A that it closed to leasing has only medium or low potential for oil and gas resources. Environmentalists cheered the new NPR-A restrictions, with Sierra Club executive director Ben Jealous calling it a "major victory" for the arctic. But oil industry groups say the restrictions are a step in the wrong direction, adding to other recent regulations they say will make it hard to produce energy on federal land. BLM recently finalized more stringent bonding requirements for onshore and offshore land, in addition to finalizing a plan to lease federal land for conservation. "This misguided rule from the Biden administration sharply limits future oil and natural gas development in Alaska's National Petroleum Reserve, a region explicitly intended by Congress to bolster America's energy security," American Petroleum Institute senior vice president of regulatory affairs Dustin Meyer said. The administration has been working to finish regulations in recent weeks ahead of an upcoming deadline where any rule could be subject to "disapproval" in 2025 under the Congressional Review Act. The exact deadline remains in flux because it depends on how long the US Congress stays in session, but it could arrive as early as next month. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Limited strike on Iran opens door to de-escalation
Limited strike on Iran opens door to de-escalation
Dubai, 19 April (Argus) — A limited aerial assault on the central Iranian city of Isfahan earlier today could mark the beginning of the end of the latest escalation in the Mideast Gulf. Iranian state media reported in the early hours of Friday, 19 April, several explosions over Isfahan at 04:00 local time. These were later confirmed by the Iranian military to have been the result of air defences bringing down three small drones over the city. Isfahan is the home to a number of strategically important facilities, among them the Shekari airbase that houses some of Iran's F-14 Tomcat fighter planes and SU-24 Sukhoi bombers, and a uranium conversion facility. There was "no impact or damage" to either, according to Iranian army commander-in-chief Seyyed Abdolrahim Mousavi. Other Iranian officials also sought to downplay the strike. Hossein Dalirian, spokesman for Iran's National Center for Cyberspace, said on social media platform X that it was so minor "it would not be considered an attack anywhere in the world." Ice Brent crude futures rose by nearly $3/bl earlier today, but are now trading below the previous settlement level. Iran and the wider Mideast Gulf region were on high alert as Israel weighed its options for a response to Tehran's assault on Israeli territory last weekend. That attack, involving more than 300 drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, was the first ever direct assault on Israel from Iranian territory. As yet, there has been no official confirmation from either side that today's attack originated from Israel. Media reports quoted unnamed US and Israeli officials saying Israel had launched the drones, and Oman's foreign ministry condemned Israel "for its attack this morning on Isfahan". Iran's attack on Israel last weekend was itself in response to a suspected Israeli air strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in the Syrian capital, Damascus, at the start of April. That killed seven members of Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two generals. Despite its magnitude, the Iranian retaliation was not only highly choreographed, but also telegraphed to key stakeholders beforehand in an effort to limit damage and casualties. Israel said immediately after the attack that almost all of Iran's drones and missiles were intercepted with the help of allied forces in the region and that there were no fatalities, only "light" damage to the Nevatim military base in Israel's Negev desert. De-escalatory strike The limited nature of Iran's strike prompted Israel's western allies to urge it to show restraint. The US appealed to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to "take the win" and claim victory for its defence. But as it became increasingly clear that a response without a military dimension would be unpalatable for Israel, the US and Europe turned their efforts to making sure whatever Israel chose to do was also limited and fell below a threshold that could trigger yet another escalation in tensions. "This was probably the level of attack that on one hand was necessitated by internal Israeli calculations within the security cabinet and broader political coalition, and by virtue of the pressure by allies and what the US was willing to countenance," said Geneva Graduate Institute senior research associate Farzan Sabet. "It was a limited strike with the message that we can hit you anywhere, anytime, and without having to resort to a major strike involving 300-plus missiles." In the days following Iran's attack on Israel, several key IRGC figures said Tehran had "decided to create a new equation with Israel" ꟷ specifically that Tehran would retaliate to any Israeli attack on its interests or citizens from Iranian territory. This would be a shift from the previous status quo, which would see Israel regularly target Iranian interest and officials in third countries, many times without response from Tehran. But the limited nature of Israel's latest attack, and the very concerted effort by Iranian officials, military personnel and media to downplay its severity and impact so far, suggests it could feasibly provide a de-escalatory off-ramp for Iran. "Should Israel's response be limited to this, the Islamic Republic will not be under pressure to retaliate," said Arab Gulf States Institute senior fellow Ali Alfoneh. But is too early to say whether today's incident is the totality of Israel's response. "We're running up to [the Jewish holiday of] Passover [on 22-30 April]. The Israelis may not have wanted to carry out a major retaliation ahead of Passover so as to avoid the threat of war hanging over the country during the holiday," Sabet said. "So it is very possible that more [retaliatory attacks] could come after Passover." By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India mulls using more natural gas in steel sector
India mulls using more natural gas in steel sector
Mumbai, 19 April (Argus) — India's steel ministry is considering increasing natural gas consumption in the sector as it aims to lower carbon emissions from the industry. Steelmakers held a meeting with the steel ministry earlier this month, to discuss challenges and avenues to increase gas allocation to the sector, according to a government document seen by Argus . Steel producers requested that the government set gas prices at an affordable range of $7-8/mn Btu for them, to make their gas-based plants viable, as well as for a custom duty waiver on LNG procured for captive power. India's LNG imports attract a custom duty of 2.5pc. City gas distribution firms sell gas at market-determined prices to steel companies. Representatives from the steel industry also requested for the inclusion of gas under the purview of the country's goods and service tax, and to be given higher priority in the allocation of deepwater gas, which has a higher calorific value. Deepwater gas is currently deployed mostly to city gas distribution networks. Steelmakers are currently undertaking feasibility tests for gas pipeline connectivity at various steel plants. But a gas supply transmission agreement requires a minimum five-year period for investment approval. The steel industry is heavily reliant on coal, and the sector accounts for about 8-10pc of carbon emissions in the country. A task force of gas suppliers including IOC, Gail, BPCL, Shell, and HPCL and steel producers like Tata Steel, AMNS, All India Steel Re-roller Association and the Pellet Manufacturers Association has been set up, and the team is expected to submit a report on increasing natural gas usage and lowering carbon emissions by 15 May, the government document said. This team is one of the 13 task forces approved by the steel ministry to define the country's green steel roadmap. The steel ministry aims to increase green steel exports from the country in the light of the policies under the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will take effect on 1 January 2026. Under the CBAM, importers will need to declare the quantity of goods imported into the EU in the preceding year and their corresponding greenhouse gas emissions. The importers will then have to surrender the corresponding number of CBAM certificates. CBAM certificate prices will be calculated based on the weekly average auction price of EU Emissions Trading System allowances, expressed in €/t of CO2 emitted. This is of higher importance to Indian steelmakers as the EU was the top finished steel export destination for Indian steelmakers during the April 2022-March 2023 fiscal year with total exports of 2.34mn t, and has been the preferred choice for Indian steel exports in the current fiscal year owing to higher prices compared to other regions. Indian steelmakers have started to take steps to lower their carbon emissions by announcing collaborations with technology companies to decarbonise, and are trial injecting hydrogen in blast furnaces, and increasing the usage of natural gas in ironmaking. By Rituparna Ghosh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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