IMF strikes more upbeat note on world economy
The IMF expects the global economy to slow down this year, but not as substantially as it projected three months ago when it warned of recession risks for advanced and emerging economies.
"The outlook is less gloomy than in our October forecast, and could represent a turning point, with growth bottoming out and inflation declining," IMF research director Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.
The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook forecasts global growth of 2.9pc this year, rebounding to 3.1pc in 2024. The world economy grew by 3.4pc in 2022. The 2022 growth estimate and the 2023 forecast are both 0.2 percentage points higher than in the IMF's October outlook.
IMF forecasts are used by many economists, including at the IEA, to model oil demand projections.
Energy-intensive economies of China and India are projected to account for most of the global growth in 2023. The IMF forecasts China's 2023 growth at 5.2pc, as the country emerges from a slowdown caused by its drastic Covid-19 containment measures. "India remains a bright spot," Gourinchas said, with the country's economy projected to grow at 6.1pc this year and 6.8pc in 2024, after recording 6.8pc growth in 2022.
The advanced economies' group is slowing down more markedly, but it is still expected to do better than the IMF previously expected, with most countries — except for the UK — forecast to avoid a recession. In case of European countries, the IMF notes their unexpected resilience to the energy price shocks resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, including the reduction in natural gas supply from Europe. The growth forecast for the eurozone is still lower than the historical average, at 0.7pc for 2023.
The IMF has also significantly scaled back its 2023 growth forecast for Saudi Arabia and now expects the largest OPEC producer's economy to grow by 2.6pc this year, down from 8.7pc in 2022. The downgrade reflects lower oil prices and production cutbacks following the OPEC+ decision late last year to reduce output quotas.
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India’s Gail to shut Dabhol LNG terminal for monsoon
India’s Gail to shut Dabhol LNG terminal for monsoon
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EV demand slowdown cuts S Korea’s LGES' profit in 1Q
EV demand slowdown cuts S Korea’s LGES' profit in 1Q
Singapore, 25 April (Argus) — South Korea's top battery manufacturer LG Energy Solution (LGES) reported significant lower revenue and profit in January-March, because of lower battery metal prices and slower electric vehicle (EV) demand. LGES' revenue in January-March fell by 23pc on the quarter and 30pc on the year to 6.13 trillion won ($4.46bn), owing to lower demand for EV pouch cells and energy storage system (ESS), with "prolonged metal price impact" affecting its average selling price. The firm reported W157bn of operating profit in January-March, but would have reported an operating loss of W32bn if it did not receive almost W189bn in US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits. But this was still a sharp drop from W633bn of operating profit for January-March 2023. The lower revenue and a demand slowdown in the EV market led to utilisation rate adjustments that weighed on its financial performance. The firm reaped a net profit of W212bn during the quarter, which was up by 12pc on the quarter but down by around 62pc on the year, likely significantly propped up by the US' IRA tax credits. LGES said it will continue to invest despite the difficult market environment, but will "adjust" the size of its capital expenditure and execution speed "as per priority". Battery project updates LGES and automaker General Motors in early April completed the first battery shipment out of their second Ultium battery cell factory in US' Tennessee. The plant's capacity is expected to gradually expand to 50 GWh/yr, said LGES. Construction progress at the firm's battery manufacturing complex in US' Arizona is also on track, said the firm. Ramped up capacity is expected to be 53 GWh/yr, which will comprise 36 GWh/yr of 46-series cylindrical battery for EVs and 17 GWh/yr of lithium-iron-phosphate battery for ESS. LGES' 10 GWh/yr Indonesian battery production joint venture with South Korean conglomerate Hyundai Motor has also started mass production. Its battery module production joint venture with automaker Stellantis in US' Ontario, which encountered a halt in construction in May last year, will start operations in the second half of 2024. The factory has a planned capacity of 45GWh/yr and was supposed to begin operations early this year. LGES earlier this year inked a second agreement with Australian firm Wesfarmers Chemicals, Energy and Fertilisers for lithium concentrate supply. The firm will continue building a raw materials supply chain within regions that have a free trade agreement with US, it said. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Barge delays at Algiers lock near New Orleans
Barge delays at Algiers lock near New Orleans
Houston, 24 April (Argus) — Barges are facing lengthy delays at the Algiers lock near New Orleans as vessels reroute around closures at the Port Allen lock and the Algiers Canal. Delays at the Algiers Lock —at the interconnection of the Mississippi River and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway— have reached around 37 hours in the past day, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers' lock report. Around 50 vessels are waiting to cross the Algiers lock. Another 70 vessels were waiting at the nearby Harvey lock with a six-hour wait in the past day. The closure at Port Allen lock has spurred the delays, causing vessels to reroute through the Algiers lock. The Port Allen lock is expected to reopen on 28 April, which should relieve pressure on the Algiers lock. Some traffic has been rerouted through the nearby Harvey lock since the Algiers Canal was closed by a collapsed powerline, the US Coast Guard said. The powerline fell on two barges, but no injuries or damages were reported. The wire is being removed by energy company Entergy. The canal is anticipated to reopen at midnight on 25 April. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Baltimore to temporarily open 4th shipping channel
Baltimore to temporarily open 4th shipping channel
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