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London, 12 June (Argus) — Steel market participants are expecting a slower, lower-margin second half of 2026 following the supply-led rally in prices over the first half of the year. Long steel prices in particular rose very sharply in the several weeks following the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, with electric arc furnace mills highly exposed to rising energy costs. Supply constraints and regulatory uncertainty — fuelled first by the launch of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and compounded by impending 1 July tightening to EU and UK steel quotas — drove buyer restocking over the past several months. But now, trading sources note, the attention of steel market participants is shifting from supply over to demand, which is lacking. As per Argus ' assessments, following the outbreak of the US-Israel war with Iran at the start of March, rebar prices rose €167.50/t ($194/t) in Italy by the end of May, and by €100/t in Germany and Spain over the same period. Many traders held significant inventory at the time the war broke out, having stocked up ahead of CBAM, so benefited greatly from the surge in prices. But a source at a major European trading firm said margins in the second half of the year are set to be much weaker, as prices are softening on weak demand. Argus ' monthly German rebar assessment fell by €15/t on 10 June to €695/t delivered, while the weekly domestic Italian assessment has fallen by €25/t so far this month, standing at €705/t ex-works as of 10 June. Market participants have noted that prices for finished products did not match the swift gains of mills' long steel prices over March-May. At the same time, several traders have commented that the steel and other commodity markets have become less reactive to the developments in the Middle East war. Escalated strikes by the US in Iran this week prompted little or no movement in either steel or oil prices. Many market participants are, however, concerned about the medium-term deflationary impact of what they believe would be an oversupply of oil if the strait of Hormuz were to open. For the time being, the European Central Bank's interest rate hike yesterday sets the tone for the next few months — with construction projects already facing elevated material and transport costs, higher borrowing costs will weigh on housing demand. By Brendan Kjellberg-Motton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brasilia, 12 June (Argus) — There is no value in making copper cathodes in Brazil, as producing red-metal concentrate already aggregates most of the gains a producer can have, a spokesperson for Vale Base Metals (VBM) said at a market event on 10 June. Concentrate aggregates 90-94pc of the value in copper's supply chain, leaving little gains in moving further downstream and producing copper cathodes, said VBM's corporate affairs director José Luiz Marques at the event organized by Brazil's mining institute Ibram. Marques explained that, especially in a high-price environment such as today's, VBM is already maximizing value through copper concentrate production. "When copper demand rises, treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) plunge, which is good for concentrate producers," Marques said, explaining that VBM prices its concentrate based on a formula consisting on London Metal Exchange figures, minus TC/RC fees and specific discounts depending on impurities. This means that the lower the processing fees, the higher the price of the concentrate. "It is a great time to be a copper miner these days," he said during a panel at the Ibram event. The costs to implement a smelter are very high, so there is not enough value added over the concentrate to make an investment worthwhile, according to Marques. "The aggregated value of copper concentrate needs to be around 60-65pc to make copper cathodes a valuable addition to Vale," he said, noting that few jurisdictions are able to profit from smelting. Criticism of Brazil's critical minerals bill Brazil's critical minerals bill , which considers all mineral resources and commercial partners equal, should have looked at copper through a different lens, Marques argued. Marques argued that copper has a much more established and liquid market than all other critical minerals, which should have been accounted for in the bill. Half of the bill's financial benefits are contingent on companies "processing and transforming" critical minerals in Brazil. As VBM and other local copper producers stand to gain little value in doing so, they could be prevented from accessing over R5bn in tax credits in a five-year period. VBM is slated to invest $10bn in the next 10 years in Carajás, its flagship copper asset. VBM's Marques also argued that the bill does not cover the most-needed improvement for Brazilian critical mineral producers: celerity. "It takes an average of 17 years to start-up a copper project in Brazil, and in 15 years the world will be in a supply deficit, so the numbers don't match," he said. "Only with celerity and agility in bureaucratic processes will Brazil be able to compete in the global copper industry." He noted that China added one-third of its smelting capacity in the last 10 years as a successful example of agile processes. Marques echoed the criticisms of fellow panelists at the Ibram conference, who pointed to slow environmental licensing and little predictability with bureaucratic processes, especially regarding timelines. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Sydney, 12 June (Argus) — Western Australia's (WA) state Labor government is set to invest A$9.8mn ($6.9mn) in Generation Steel, supporting the company's planned Collie electric arc furnace (EAF) mill, which will produce 450,000 t/yr of rebar from recycled scrap. The state funds will be matched by Generation and go towards completing pre-development activities after a bankable feasibility study confirmed the project's viability, WA premier Roger Cook said on 12 June. The pledge follows a previous A$4.5mn commitment from the government for the facility. WA issued an expression of interest for offtake-ready low-emission steel products in November 2025. Generation, previously known as Green Steel of WA, is targeting a final investment decision by late 2026, with construction starting shortly afterwards and first steel production within 24 months. The Collie EAF is set to be the state's first steel mill and the first new steel mill to be constructed in Australia in more than 30 years. The state's Pilbara region is the world's largest source of iron ore — the most critical input of steel manufacturing. Australian methane pyrolysis developer Hazer signed a letter of intent with Generation in March to supply up to 85,000t of graphite over a 10-year term, for use in the EAF. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brasilia, 11 June (Argus) — Brazil remains far from processing critical minerals domestically despite President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's push for greater capabilities, market participants estimate. Lula has championed critical mineral processing in Brazil since at least November. The debate gained prominence in recent months after his administration clashed with the US over this issue, as Lula has grown less flexible and making local processing a key condition to sign bilateral critical minerals agreements . Brazil's lower house approved on 7 May a critical minerals bill that aims to grant incentives to miners who process and refine volumes domestically, further increasing the topic's importance. Despite discussions on vertical integration, Brazil is far from processing at an scale, industry members said at a seminar on critical minerals hosted by national mining institute Ibram in the capital of Brasilia. "We are still unable to produce at sufficient scale to even consider this subsequent stage," national mining secretary Ana Paula Bittencourt said, noting that the gap between reserves and production remains wide. Brazil holds 24-25pc of global critical mineral reserves but produces less than 1pc, according to Brazil's economics ministry. Ibram says Brazil holds 10pc of global reserves of critical minerals, as the two groups have different definitions for critical minerals. Bittencourt said Brazil needs to speed up bureaucracy and improve geological knowledge to strengthen the mining industry. This could attract elements necessary to scale up production, such as credit lines and capital. Technical capacity Even with higher output, Brazil would need to train its workforce in critical mineral processing and develop technology to handle different minerals. Pedro Henrique Guerra, chief of staff at the vice-presidency, told the panel that each critical mineral has distinct market traits and price cycles. "We need technology and research to qualify our workforce," Bittencourt said. "We are looking for credit and funding mechanisms to back the technology development necessary to advance in supply chains for each mineral." Brazilian miners are skilled in extraction, but lack expertise in processing critical minerals, especially rare earths. "It is extremely difficult to find engineers capable of working on industrial production of rare earth magnets," researcher Fernando Landgraf said on a separate panel, where speakers noted that China holds a firm monopoly on this front. Pablo Cesario, Ibram's acting president, said Brazil needs to develop the technology but cannot achieve this without international partnerships. Legislative, operational bottlenecks The minerals bill, aimed at bringing clarity to the sector, could face delays despite expedited approval in the lower house and its move to the senate. Congressmen Jose Silva and Arnaldo Jardim, the bill's author and rapporteur, respectively, expressed confidence that it will pass the senate without major changes, ideally before October elections. But a senate official told Argus at the sidelines of an industry conference on 9 June that there is no timeline for a decision. Several major policies are pending in the senate, with the critical minerals bill awaiting prioritization by senate president Davi Alcolumbre, the official said. Brazilian will vote on 54 of 81 senate seats in October's election, alongside a large congressional reshuffle. Delaying a decision could present new roadblocks to the bill, which is urgently expected by stakeholders. "We need to sort this out before the elections, otherwise we will need to restart the debate with the newly elected group," Ibram president Pablo Cesario said. In addition to the legislative bottleneck, national mining agency ANM is about 60pc understaffed, with only four employees in its critical minerals division and 15,000 economic plans pending analysis agency-wide, according to its director-general. The ANM is responsible for managing and guaranteeing the safe usage of the country's mineral resources. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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