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European longs steel traders see weaker 2H

  • Spanish Market: Metals
  • 12/06/26

Steel market participants are expecting a slower, lower-margin second half of 2026 following the supply-led rally in prices over the first half of the year.

Long steel prices in particular rose very sharply in the several weeks following the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, with electric arc furnace mills highly exposed to rising energy costs. Supply constraints and regulatory uncertainty — fuelled first by the launch of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and compounded by impending 1 July tightening to EU and UK steel quotas — drove buyer restocking over the past several months. But now, trading sources note, the attention of steel market participants is shifting from supply over to demand, which is lacking.

As per Argus' assessments, following the outbreak of the US-Israel war with Iran at the start of March, rebar prices rose €167.50/t ($194/t) in Italy by the end of May, and by €100/t in Germany and Spain over the same period. Many traders held significant inventory at the time the war broke out, having stocked up ahead of CBAM, so benefited greatly from the surge in prices. But a source at a major European trading firm said margins in the second half of the year are set to be much weaker, as prices are softening on weak demand. Argus' monthly German rebar assessment fell by €15/t on 10 June to €695/t delivered, while the weekly domestic Italian assessment has fallen by €25/t so far this month, standing at €705/t ex-works as of 10 June.

Market participants have noted that prices for finished products did not match the swift gains of mills' long steel prices over March-May. At the same time, several traders have commented that the steel and other commodity markets have become less reactive to the developments in the Middle East war. Escalated strikes by the US in Iran this week prompted little or no movement in either steel or oil prices. Many market participants are, however, concerned about the medium-term deflationary impact of what they believe would be an oversupply of oil if the strait of Hormuz were to open.

For the time being, the European Central Bank's interest rate hike yesterday sets the tone for the next few months — with construction projects already facing elevated material and transport costs, higher borrowing costs will weigh on housing demand.


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