LNG is a small player in marine fuel market, for now
Shipowners have been largely uninterested in using LNG to meet looming 2020 fuel oil sulphur rules, despite its low-sulphur properties and wide price discount to marine gasoil.
But LNG is likely to become a bigger player in the bunkering market within the next five years due to three factors: new greenhouse gas emissions limits; the expansion of global LNG infrastructure; and the higher costs of MGO for shipowners that opted against scrubbers and are not confident in the compatibility of 0.5pc sulphur blends.
In the shorter term, shipowners appear content to ride out high prices for HS380 fuel oil by using scrubbers to clean non-compliant fuel to the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5pc sulphur standard, expecting that the fuel price will fall.
The Rotterdam HS380 fuel oil and northwest Europe LNG small-scale delivered via truck premium reached $154/t in March, the widest monthly average premium since Argus first began assessing small-scale LNG in northwest Europe in April 2016.
The premium widened as residual fuel oil supplies tightened due to US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran, as well as the mothballing of the Trinidad & Tobago refinery in December. But the favorable residual fuel oil crack spreads are expected to be short-lived, with prices falling in 2020.
Most analysts expect residual fuel oil prices to find their footing as some utilities embrace resid for power generation and as refineries cut back on fuel oil output or turn to burning sweeter crude.
As such, LNG for bunkering's prospects are not dead in the water.
The two major bunkering hubs, Singapore and Rotterdam, have been promoting LNG for use as a fuel for ships.
In Rotterdam, Shell's LNG bunker vessel, the 6,500m³ Cardissa, was delivered in mid-2017. Titan LNG and Anthony Veder also supply LNG for bunkering in Rotterdam. The port authority expects to have ten LNG bunker suppliers by 2025. There are two LNG-for-bunkering suppliers in Singapore: Pavilion Energy and FueLNG. They each expect to receive a delivery of a newbuild LNG bunkering barge. Pavilion Energy will receive a 12,000m3 barge in early 2021 and FueLNG will receive a 7,500m3 barge by the end of 2020 to operate in Singapore.
At its next meeting in May 2019, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will consider a strategy to cut global shipping sector emissions by at least 50pc by 2050 compared with 2008 levels. If the IMO does not deliver by 2021, the EU has said it will include shipping emissions in its emissions trading scheme (ETS) from 2023.
Under the European Union (EU)'s Emission Trading System (ETS), companies receive or buy emission allowances, which they can trade with one another. A March snapshot of ETS GHG emissions prices shows that if ETS was applied, the marine fuel bill for shipowners would increase by about $80/t regardless if they burn MGO, HS380 or 0.5pc sulphur fuel.
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FTC clears Exxon-Pioneer deal but bars Sheffield
FTC clears Exxon-Pioneer deal but bars Sheffield
New York, 2 May (Argus) — US antitrust regulators signaled they will clear ExxonMobil's proposed $59.5bn takeover of Pioneer Natural Resources but banned the shale giant's former chief executive officer from gaining a seat on the board. A proposed consent order from the Federal Trade Commission seeks to stop Scott Sheffield, Pioneer's former chief executive, from taking part in "collusive activity" that would potentially raise crude prices and cause US consumers to pay more at the pump. The order paves the way for ExxonMobil to close its blockbuster deal for Pioneer, which will make it the leading producer in the prolific Permian shale basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. It is also the top US oil producer's biggest transaction since Exxon's 1999 merger with Mobil. ExxonMobil's Permian output will more than double to 1.3mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) when the acquisition closes, before increasing to about 2mn boe/d in 2027. The FTC, which has taken a tougher line on mergers under the administration of President Joe Biden, has paid close attention to oil deals announced during the latest phase of shale consolidation. Only this week, Diamondback Energy said it had received a second request for information from the regulator over its $26bn proposed takeover of Endeavor Energy Resources. And Chevron's planned $53bn acquisition of US independent Hess has also been held up. The FTC alleged in a complaint that Sheffield exchanged hundreds of text messages with Opec officials discussing crude pricing and output, and that he sought to align production across the Permian with the cartel. His past conduct "makes it crystal clear that he should be nowhere near Exxon's boardroom," said Kyle Mach, deputy director of the FTC's Bureau of Competition. ExxonMobil said it learnt about the allegations against Sheffield from the FTC. "They are entirely inconsistent with how we do business," the company said. While Pioneer said it disagreed with the FTC's complaint, which reflects a "fundamental misunderstanding" of US and global oil markets and "misreads the nature and intent" of Sheffield's actions, the company said it would not be taking any steps to stop the merger from closing. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
CEE gas operators begin binding capacity offer process
CEE gas operators begin binding capacity offer process
London, 2 May (Argus) — Gas transmission system operators (TSOs) across central and eastern Europe have launched the start of binding incremental capacity processes aimed at facilitating larger gas flows from south to north. Romanian, Bulgarian, Hungarian, Moldovan and Ukrainian operators have published joint documents outlining the necessary conditions for participating in the upcoming annual auctions on 1 July. Bulgarian and Romanian TSOs Bulgartransgaz and Transgaz will offer an additional roughly 123 GWh/d of capacity from Bulgaria to Romania at Negru Voda 1-Kardam on top of existing available capacity of 126-142 GWh/d depending on the year ( see BG-RO table ). In the event of a successful auction and subsequent economic test, the TSOs hope to reach a final investment decision (FID) in the third quarter of this year and commission the upgrades in the third quarter of 2026. Commercial operations could begin in the fourth quarter, aligning with the start of the 2026-27 gas year. This timeline has been moved forward by one year from the original proposals earlier this year . Transgaz, along with Hungary's FGSZ, will offer up to 73 GWh/d of additional capacity from Romania to Hungary at Csanadpalota on top of existing available capacity of 5-71 GWh/d depending on the year ( see RO-HU table ), but maintained its three-tiered approach elaborated in an earlier market consultation . Depending on the level of capacity to which firms commit at the auction, capacity could increase by 9.5 GWh/d, 47.3 GWh/d or 72.5 GWh/d. The smallest project could start commercial operations in the first quarter of 2028, the middle level in the third quarter of 2028, and the highest level in the third quarter of 2029. These timelines are pushed back by roughly one year from the originally-proposed dates in the February consultation. And Transgaz, along with Ukraine's GTSOU, will offer an additional 77 GWh/d of capacity from Romania to Ukraine at Isaccea 1-Orlovka 1 on top of existing available capacity of 97-109 GWh/d depending on the year ( see RO-UA table ). The TSOs aim to reach FID in the third quarter of this year and commission the project in the fourth quarter of 2028. Commercial operations could begin in October 2028. GTSOU and its Moldovan counterpart Vestmoldtransgaz will offer 173 GWh/d towards Moldova from Ukraine at Kaushany starting from the 2027-28 gas year, while simultaneously offering 159 GWh/d of capacity from Moldova towards Ukraine at Grebenyky. By Brendan A'Hearn Available and incremental capacity at Negru Voda/Kardam GWh/d/yr Gas year Available existing cap Incremental cap Total 2024-25 141 - 141 2025-26 141 - 141 2026-27 142 123 265 2027-28 142 123 265 2028-29 142 123 265 2029-30-2042 126 123 249 — Bulgartransgaz, Transgaz; numbers rounded Available and incremental capacity at Csanadpalota GWh/d/yr Gas year Available existing cap Incremental cap Total 2024-25 43 - 43 2025-26 46 - 46 2026-27 71 - 71 2027-28 13 - 142 2028-29 13 - 13 2029-30 5 73 78 2030-31 34 73 107 2031-32 34 73 107 2032-33-2039 63 73 136 — FGSZ, Transgaz; numbers rounded Available and incremental capacity at Isaccea/Orlovka GWh/d/yr Gas year Available existing cap Incremental cap Total 2024-25 109 - 109 2025-26 109 - 109 2026-27 109 - 109 2027-28 109 - 186 2028-29 109 77 186 2029-30-2039 97 77 174 — GTSOU, Transgaz; numbers rounded Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining
Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining
London, 2 May (Argus) — Shell delivered a better-than-expected profit for the first quarter of 2024, helped by a strong performance from its LNG and oil product businesses. The company reported profit of $7.4bn for January-March, up sharply from an impairment-hit $474mn in the previous three months but down from $8.7bn in the first quarter of 2023. Adjusted for inventory valuation effects and one-off items, Shell's profit came in at $7.7bn, 6pc ahead of the preceding three months and above analysts' estimates of $6.3bn-$6.5bn, although it was 20pc lower than the first quarter of 2023 when gas prices were higher. Shell's oil and gas production increased by 3pc on the quarter in January-March and was broadly flat compared with a year earlier at 2.91mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). For the current quarter, Shell expects production in a range of 2.55mn-2.81mn boe/d, reflecting the effect of scheduled maintenance across its portfolio. The company's Integrated Gas segment delivered a profit of $2.76bn in the first quarter, up from $1.73bn in the previous three months and $2.41bn a year earlier. The segment benefited from increased LNG volumes — 7.58mn t compared to 7.06mn t in the previous quarter and 7.19mn t a year earlier — as well as favourable deferred tax movements and lower operating expenses. For the current quarter, Shell expects to produce 6.8mn-7.4mn t of LNG. In the downstream, the company's Chemicals and Products segment swung to a profit of $1.16bn during the quarter from an impairment-driven loss of $1.83bn in the previous three months, supported by a strong contribution from oil trading operations and higher refining margins driven by greater utilisation of its refineries and global supply disruptions. Shell's refinery throughput increased to 1.43mn b/d in the first quarter from 1.32mn b/d in fourth quarter of last year and 1.41mn b/d in January-March 2023. Shell has maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.344/share. It also said it has completed the $3.5bn programme of share repurchases that it announced at its previous set of results and plans to buy back another $3.5bn of its shares before the company's next quarterly results announcement. The company said it expects its capital spending for the year to be within a $22bn-$25bn range. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Fed signals rates likely to stay high for longer
US Fed signals rates likely to stay high for longer
Houston, 1 May (Argus) — Federal Reserve policymakers signaled they are likely to hold rates higher for longer until they are confident inflation is slowing "sustainably" towards the 2pc target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds target rate unchanged at a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5pc, for the sixth consecutive meeting. This followed 11 rate increases from March 2022 through July 2023 that amounted to the most aggressive hiking campaign in four decades. "We don't think it would be appropriate to dial back our restrictive policy stance until we've gained greater confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably," Fed chair Jerome Powell told a press conference after the meeting. "It appears it'll take longer to reach the point of confidence that rate cuts will be in scope." In a statement the FOMC cited a lack of further progress towards the committee's 2pc inflation objective in recent months as part of the decision to hold the rate steady. Despite this, the FOMC said the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals "have moved toward better balance over the past year," shifting prior language that said the goals "are moving into better balance." The decision to keep rates steady was widely expected. CME's FedWatch tool, which tracks fed funds futures trading, had assigned a 99pc probability to the Fed holding rates steady today while giving 58pc odds of rate declines beginning at the 7 November meeting. In March, Fed policymakers had signaled they believed three quarter points cuts were likely this year. Inflation has ticked up lately after falling from four-decade highs in mid-2022. The consumer price index inched back up to an annual 3.5pc in March after reaching a recent low of 3pc in June 2023. The employment cost index edged up in the first quarter to the highest in a year. At the same time, job growth, wages and demand have remained resilient. The Fed also said it would begin slowing the pace of reducing its balance sheet of Treasuries and other notes in June, partly to avoid stress in money markets. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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