Kuwait projects $30bn budget deficit on Opec cuts

Spanish Market: Crude oil
15/01/20

Kuwait faces a widening budget deficit for the coming fiscal year, because of lower oil prices and reduced output caused by its participation in the Opec and non-Opec production agreement.

Kuwait's ministry of finance submitted to parliament yesterday its proposed budget bill, which projects a deficit of 9.2bn Kuwaiti dinar ($30.25bn) for the year that starts on 1 April. This would be a seventh consecutive year that Kuwait has posted a deficit, and is 12pc larger than the KD8.2bn projected for the current year.

The bill projects lower state revenues, particularly from the oil and gas sector. Overall, the ministry forecasts revenues at KD14.8bn, down by 9.7pc on the current year, and state expenditure at KD22.5bn, level with the current year. The deficit forecast takes into consideration a mandatory 10pc allocation of total revenues to Kuwait's future generations fund, which is managed by the sovereign wealth fund KIA.

Taking this allocation into account, the ministry put a break-even crude price for its proposed budget at $86/bl. Kuwait's newly appointed finance minister Mariam Aqeel al-Aqeel said the deficit will be completely covered by state reserves.

It expects oil and gas revenues of KD12.9bn, or 87pc of the total, down from KD14.5bn or 88pc this year. The ministry includes in this figure revenues from the sale of crude and gas, and the tax and concession fees paid by oil companies operating in Kuwait.

Al-Aqeel put the widening budget deficit down to a combination of the lower oil-price environment and Kuwait's commitments under the Opec and non-Opec agreement. Kuwait said it will cap its output at 2.67mn b/d at least until the end of the first quarter. It has nearly 3mn b/d of production capacity.

Opec and its non-Opec allies will meet in the first week of March to discuss what action, if any, will be required beyond the current agreement's expiry.

Kuwait has based its budget calculations for the coming year on a crude price of $55/bl, level with the current year's budget, and average production of 2.7mn b/d. Argus estimated Kuwait's crude output at 2.71mn b/d in December.

There is no timeframe for parliament's ratification of the budget.

By Nader Itayim

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13/11/25

US, allies fall out over Venezuela: Update

Adds update on US operations, Venezuelan opposition comment. Washington, 13 November (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's administration is pushing back on allies' criticism of its strong-arm approach toward Venezuela — the latest point of disagreement within the G7 group of major economies. The US has built up a large naval presence near Venezuela since early September — including the Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier strike group as of 11 November — and has carried out almost 20 lethal attacks on small boats it accuses of ferrying drugs. US defense secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday labeled efforts to remove "narco-terrorists from our hemisphere" as Operation Southern Spear, to be led by the Southern Command which oversees military forces in Central America, South America and the Caribbean. The US administration's legal pretext for the build up and Trump's statements that he is considering attacks on Venezuela's soil have come under skeptical review from US lawmakers from both parties. G7 foreign ministers ahead and during their meeting in Canada on 10-11 November expressed similar sentiments. The US strikes against boats disregard international law, French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot said. There is no legal basis for the US attacks, EU foreign affairs commissioner Kaja Kallas told NBC News on Wednesday. "I don't think that the EU gets to determine what international law is," US secretary of state Marco Rubio told reporters late on Wednesday. "I do find it interesting that all of these countries want us to send and supply, for example, nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles to defend Europe, but when the US positions aircraft carriers in our hemisphere where we live, somehow that's a problem." The EU has backed Ukraine's request last month to equip Ukrainian forces with Tomahawk missiles to enable Kyiv to strike targets deep inside Russia. But Trump appears to have denied the request. The US armada assembled near Venezuela, including the Gerald R Ford group, carries an estimated 170 Tomahawks, defense experts Mark Cancian and Chris Park with think tank the Center for Security and International Studies wrote on 10 November. The Tomahawk inventory is comparable with the number of missiles the US military previously used in campaigns of limited duration, such as in Libya in 2011, the experts said. US naval maneuvers and boat strikes so far have had no impact on Venezuela's oil exports and energy shipments across the Caribbean. Chevron — allowed to resume business in Venezuela just before the naval build up began — appears to have imported 155,000 b/d to the US from Venezuela in October, based on data from Kpler ship tracking. Venezuela's crude output was at an estimated 1.1mn b/d in October. Independent refiners in China absorb the bulk of Venezuelan crude exports not loaded by Chevron. Venezuelan imports to China were at an estimated 500,000 b/d in October, with many more cargoes available than there are buyers, despite Merey discounts widening to $12/bl against Ice Brent. What next? The US has not carried out a unilateral military intervention in the western hemisphere since 1989, when it toppled Panamanian president Manuel Noriega's government and transported him to the US where he was convicted in court of involvement in drug trafficking. Trump, Rubio and other US officials have made public statements suggesting that removing Maduro from power is among possible options for the US naval force. Maduro faces a US prosecutors' indictment over alleged drug trafficking and the US has offered a $50mn bounty for his capture. Venezuela this week passed a law obligating the general population to defend Maduro's regime, with the president calling for "maximum preparation". Additional military forces have not been highly visible in the capital of Caracas in recent days. Interior minister Diosdado Cabello threatened members of Venezuela's political opposition, saying "don't say we didn't warn you" if the US "does anything to any of us." Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said from hiding late on Wednesday that Venezuela is "in the final hours" of what will be a "peaceful transition." But the US military resources assembled in the Caribbean suggest that a full blown invasion is not likely. Trump's deployment of the US military has been more limited so far this year — bombing Yemen's Houthis and Iran, and quickly declaring victory. "Attacks on the cartels have the advantage that the US can walk away at any time ... claiming that it damaged cartel operations and thereby reduced the flow of drugs into the US," Cancian and Park wrote. The Trump administration has told US lawmakers that its military operations are a "non-international armed conflict" with an unspecified group of "designated terrorist organizations". A legal opinion written by Trump's Justice Department in late July — and shared with the US Congress in early November — did not explicitly mention Venezuela and merely asserted the right to target trans-national criminal organizations anywhere, by all means. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push

13/11/25

Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push

Houston, 13 November (Argus) — Mexico's updated climate pledge sets its most ambitious emissions target, but the plan sits in sharp contrast to the government's push to increase crude processing and fuel output at state-owned Pemex's refinery system. Mexico submitted its new nationally determined contribution (NDC) ahead of this month's UN Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, committing for the first time to an absolute cap on greenhouse gas emissions of 364–404mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2035, or 332–363mn t CO2e with international support. The target represents a cut of more than 50pc from a business-as-usual trajectory, according to the environment ministry, and aligns with Mexico's long-term commitment to reach net zero by 2050. But while Mexico promises steep emissions reductions, it is simultaneously doubling down on a fossil-heavy industrial strategy centered on reviving its aging refining system, boosting domestic output of gasoline and diesel and limiting private-sector participation across the downstream chain. Mexico's refineries — most of which regularly run at below 50–60pc of capacity — remain among Mexico's largest stationary emitters, with high rates of flaring, residual fuel oil production and energy inefficiency. The government has also poured billions of dollars into the new 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery and continues to prioritize increasing crude throughput at the legacy system, even as maintenance shortfalls, outages and unplanned shutdowns remain common. Pemex processed about 950,000 b/d of crude across its seven domestic refineries in September, up by 8pc from a year prior and 57pc higher than the 604,300 b/d processed in September 2018, before former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took office. Mexico's refining-heavy strategy took shape under Lopez Obrador, who made fuel self-sufficiency the centerpiece of his administration after years of under-investment and declining output at Pemex's refining system. His government moved away from the 2014 energy reform and proposed constitutional changes that would free Pemex from its obligation to operate as a "productive state company." The shift enabled greater political influence over Pemex's operations and reinforced a nationalistic focus on refining, even as the company posted financial losses and saw its crude output fall to 40-year lows. President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration has continued that trajectory. Backed by a congressional supermajority that allows her party to advance Lopez Obrador's reforms, Sheinbaum has maintained the emphasis on fuel self-sufficiency and continued to expand Pemex's role through increased state support. Mexico's NDC frames climate policy as compatible with economic development, job creation and "just transition" principles. But the plan is still vague on specific mitigation actions for the refining sector. "Mexico's ambition is clear, but delivering on these goals will require deep structural transformation and a clear, sustained investment strategy," said Francisco Barnes Regueiro, executive director of the environmental non-governmental organization the World Resources Institute in Mexico. Meanwhile, the government maintains policies and proposed reforms that favor Pemex and state utility CFE over private-sector companies, limiting private investment in cleaner fuels and renewable electricity. The lack of incentives for low-carbon technologies, combined with an aggressive push to increase domestic production of gasoline and diesel, contradicts the technical requirements implied by the emissions cap, according to market sources. The contradiction becomes more pronounced as Mexico prepares for the Cop 30 negotiations. Mexico, which now joins more than 50 countries that have updated their NDCs, will likely face scrutiny over how its energy agenda fits within its climate ambitions. For now, the gap between Mexico's stated targets and its refining-focused policy framework remains wide. Without clear measures to reduce emissions from Pemex's refining system, expand low-carbon fuels and introduce stronger regulatory incentives, the new NDC risks becoming another aspirational document. Pemex's crude throughput '000b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Report says 2035 targets 'make no difference'

13/11/25

Cop: Report says 2035 targets 'make no difference'

Edinburgh, 13 November (Argus) — The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to 2035 — climate plans and targets submitted to the UN — have made little difference on curbing temperature increases, according to a Climate Action Tracker (CAT) report released today led by the NewClimate Institute. The CAT report's '2030 and 2035 targets scenario' estimates the climate targets submitted to mid-November keep global warming at 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels, the same as last year. The Paris Agreement signed 10 years ago seeks to limit the rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. In the CAT report's 'pledges and targets' scenario — which includes 2030 and 2035 NDCs and longer-term net zero targets — the outcome has slightly worsened to 2.2°C from 2.1°C previously, mostly as a result of the US withdrawal from the Paris accord. "The US' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has had really devastating effects at weakening the global momentum, and the impact of it is not fully reflected in the numbers," NewClimate Institute policy analyst Ana Missirliu said. The report shows that emissions under current NDCs are projected to reach 53-57 Gt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2030 and 48-52 Gt CO2e in 2035. This is above the levels consistent with a 1.5°C pathway, which would require emissions to fall to 27 Gt CO2e by 2030 and 21 Gt CO2e by 2035, according to the NewClimate Institute. "Almost none of the 40 governments the CAT analyses have updated their 2030 target, which is critical to keep warming levels below 1.5°C, nor have they set out the kind of action in new 2035 targets needed to change course," the report said. The report also found that some major emitters' targets, including the EU, fail to translate into a step-up in ambitions. The EU has introduced the use of international carbon credits to reach some of its recently agreed target to cut GHG emissions by 90 by 2040, from 1990 levels. "We have a lot of countries, and quite a lot of G20 countries, including Brazil and China, which won't have to put forward more policies to achieve their targets," Missirliu said. China has submitted a 2035 target the country can already achieve, she added. Other countries, such as the UAE, have very ambitious targets but lack the policy or policy signals to show that they can achieve them, she added. Global emissions continue to grow year-on-year, and will grow again next year, NewClimate Institute said. In China, the world's largest emitter, and India, where renewables are expanding significantly, projected emissions have gone up compared with the previous report, as energy demand and fossil fuel use continues to grow. The gap between countries' targets and the 1.5°C pathway is widening. "Even if all current NDCs and long-term targets were fully implemented, global emissions in 2035 would still be more than double the level required for 1.5°C compatibility," the report said. "The longer we wait, the more the gap grows," NewClimate Institute policy expert Kilas Hohne said. "At the heart of this crisis of inaction is the continued expansion of fossil fuel production and consumption," the report said. Countries in 2023 agreed to a call to transition away from fossil fuels but many are still expanding coal, oil and gas. The current growth rate for renewable energy is not yet aligned with the global call to triple renewables by 2030, from 2019 levels, but a growing number of countries are accelerating their transition, including Chile, Colombia, India, Ethiopia, Morocco and Switzerland, according to the NewClimate Institute. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

European interest in December Saudi crude mixed

12/11/25

European interest in December Saudi crude mixed

London, 12 November (Argus) — State-controlled Saudi Aramco will supply two of its European term buyers with their requested December volumes, while a third opted not to nominate any Saudi crude, citing weak bitumen demand. Term contracts require buyers to nominate volumes throughout the year to meet agreed annual allocations. Some refiners that had not yet completed their nominations may have done so in December. European crude demand typically softens toward the end of the year as refiners destock for tax and accounting purposes. This year, rising Mideast Gulf output could add to a glut of medium sour grades in Europe. Eight core Opec+ members agreed to raise their collective production ceiling by 137,000 b/d in December, matching increases for October and November. Most European refiners had expected Aramco to cut its December formula prices by $1–2/bl against Ice Brent. But Aramco kept prices for European customers unchanged, possibly reflecting recent strength in medium sour grades popular in the region. Iraqi Basrah Medium and Norwegian Johan Sverdrup are both at multi-week highs, as tighter sanctions affecting similar-quality Russian crude spurred Asian buying of medium sour alternatives. Aramco's steep December price cuts for Asian buyers had mixed effects. Chinese refiners — the largest buyers of Saudi seaborne crude — are set to receive lower December volumes , prompting other buyers, including India, Japan and South Korea, to request more, market participants said. Three consecutive months of Aramco price cuts for Europe starting in September triggered an influx of Saudi medium sour crude into the region. Saudi loadings to Europe in September and October were 37pc and 17pc higher, respectively, than the January–August average, Vortexa data show. Iraqi flows were also elevated, and the trend is likely to continue in November. Saudi crude deliveries to Europe so far this year have averaged about 707,000 b/d, down by 6pc from the same period in 2024. The decline may be partly explained by the restart of medium sour Kirkuk crude exports from Ceyhan in late September, after a 2½-year halt, with most volumes heading to Mediterranean buyers. By Melissa Gurusinghe and Lina Bulyk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Mexico unveils new climate plan

12/11/25

Cop: Mexico unveils new climate plan

Mexico City, 12 November (Argus) — Mexico has approved a new national climate plan as part of the UN Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, setting an absolute cap on greenhouse gas emissions for the first time. The updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) commits Mexico to limit emissions to 364–404mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2035 under its own resources, and to 332–363mn t CO2e with international support, Mexican environmental minister Alicia Barcena said. The target with support represents a cut of more than 50pc compared with a business-as-usual scenario and aligns with its pledge to reach net zero by 2050, the government said. The plan, which had not been updated since 2022, includes five key components, including mitigation — cutting emissions — and adaptation, or adjusting to climate change where possible. It also included a loss and damage component, which refers to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The NDC introduces the problems of climate security and social resilience and includes principles of gender equality, human rights and a just transition for workers in carbon-intensive sectors. Mexico's energy and environment ministries said the NDC aims to integrate climate action with economic development, job creation and social equity. But analysts warn that meeting the targets will require structural reforms and significant investment in low-carbon technologies. "Mexico's new climate plan stands among the most ambitious new climate targets from a major emitter, charting a path toward a stronger, more inclusive and resilient economy," said Francisco Barnes Regueiro, executive director of the environmental non-governmental organization the World Resources Institute in Mexico on Tuesday. "Mexico's ambition is clear, but delivering on these goals will require deep structural transformation and a clear, sustained investment strategy," he added. The announcement comes as Brazil, host of Cop 30, urges countries to submit more ambitious climate plans. Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in September called on developed nations to accelerate net-zero targets and expand support for developing countries, saying Cop 30 must focus on implementation rather than pledges. Mexico joins more than 50 countries that have updated their NDCs ahead of the summit. The EU, Canada, Norway and Switzerland have also pledged to align their plans with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. Policy contradiction But Mexico's new climate pledge contrasts with its continued support for fossil fuels, particularly its crude oil and refined fuels production, as well as its reliance on natural gas for electricity production. The government has continuously backed policies and wide-ranging reforms that favor state-owned Pemex and utility CFE over private-sector companies, without directly requiring the companies to shift to cleaner energies. Critics argue that these measures undermine private investment and complicate Mexico's ability to meet its climate targets. "Mexico continues to spend more on sustaining the past than building the future," said Isabel Studer, president of sustainability group Sostenibilidad Global, in a recent statement. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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