Auto shutdowns confirm metals demand shock
Automotive production shutdowns this week confirmed the arrival of the metals demand shock inflicted by coronavirus containment measures in Europe and the US.
US-based Ford and General Motors (GM) are shutting down all of their North American operations through to 30 March in response to the growing coronavirus pandemic. In Europe, Seat, Nissan, Volkswagen, Ford, Renault and others have reduced output or plan to scale back, lowering demand from one of the biggest metals consuming sectors.
Trade in hot-rolled coil (HRC) in Europe, the staple of car production, is grinding to a halt as spot demand from carmakers drops and the near-term outlook remains deeply uncertain given the trajectory of the virus outbreak in Europe and the US. Markets for non-ferrous metals copper, aluminium and multiple other speciality metals and alloys are also chilling as the automotive slowdown bites.
As in China, the coronavirus impact is on both demand and supply. On the supply side, steel and non-ferrous metals production in Europe is falling, either as a result of virus containment measures or as a response to lower demand. The ability of supply and demand to find a balance will be seriously challenged by the breakdown of liquidity across traded spot markets.
European steel mills are curbing production but whether or not this will be sufficient to prevent an extraordinary inventory build-up across the supply chain, as seen in China, remains to be seen. As China emerges from its coronavirus crisis, its steel inventory build-up is unwinding. Inventories held by mills and traders fell by 1.9mn t in the week to 19 March, according to industry data released today. This was the first weekly decline since December and shows trader-held warehouse stocks peaked at over 26mn t during the week of 12 March. This compared with the usual 20mn t seasonal peak in late February or early March.
But the demand shock in Europe and the US could blow back eastwards, hitting export demand for Chinese steel and metal components and potentially depressing domestic China prices, despite that market's local demand recovery as Chinese industry returns to normal operating rates. Iron ore and steel futures markets in China pulled back sharply this week, reflecting that possibility.
Emergency measures
Industrial metals markets outside China have been clinging to the view that state intervention in the form of emergency rate cuts and other measures including quantitative easing will cushion economies from the drastic virus containment measures now rolling out in all regions.
Confidence in the success of these policies has been low so far, although equity markets bounced today on the back of significant intervention by the European Central Bank. Copper and aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange have trended sharply lower in the past couple of weeks, partly in tandem with diving stock markets but also on the expectations that industrial metals demand will fall through the second quarter.
US investment bank Goldman Sachs this week revised down its copper, aluminium and nickel near-term price forecasts, citing widening supply surpluses that could take prices down to the cost of production. But it sees metals prices bouncing back in the second half of the year. Goldman Sachs and others have also raised doubts about China's willingness to go the extra mile with stimulus measures, having seen the longer-term impact of such measures in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.
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Japan's ferrous scrap exports slip in March
Japan's ferrous scrap exports slip in March
Shanghai, 29 April (Argus) — Japan's ferrous scrap exports declined sharply in March as import demand from Vietnam diminished, while the South Korean market remained bearish. Total exports in March retreated by 17pc on the month and by 10pc from the previous year, reaching 516,000t, according to Japan's customs data. Total exports dropped by 4.6pc on the year to 1.6mn t in the first quarter. Japanese scrap exporters encountered challenges because of declining overseas demand since March, as buyers became more cautious in the face of weaker-than-expected downstream demand recovery. Scrap exports will likely remain subdued in the coming months, according to trade sources. Vietnamese buyers were active in the seaborne market at the beginning of the year, but rising inventory levels and uncertainties in the steel sector outlook led them to step back after February. Exports to Vietnam in March dropped by 21pc on the month. The South Korean market is not expected to rise significantly in the near term as domestic scrap prices continued to fall, dropping by $50-60/t over the past three months. "South Korean buyers only fulfilled long-term contracts and stayed away from the spot market," a Japanese trader said. Exports to South Korea plummeted by 38pc to 470,000t in the first quarter. Exports to Taiwan dropped significantly by 41pc from the previous month as buyers were more focused on purchases of containerised scrap. Exports to Malaysia remained steady above 30,000t in March, while exports to the Philippines decreased from 34,000t in February to 13,000t. But a depreciation of the Japanese yen allowed exporters to offer relatively more competitive prices compared to other suppliers, with buyers price sensitive given a sluggish steel market. The yen started to weaken in March, reaching above ¥155:$1 at the end of April from $146.8:$1 in mid-March. Japan ferrous scrap exports (t) Country March % ± vs Feb % ± vs Mar '23 Jan-Mar % ± on year Vietnam 210,014 -20.7 20.7 683,821 48.0 South Korea 156,851 -9.8 -32.2 469,644 -38.1 Bangladesh 43,755 13.8 N/A 91,205 79.0 Taiwan 35,329 -40.8 -62.8 140,755 -28.8 Others 70,023 -20.6 -7.2 213,587 3.0 Total 515,971 -17.4 -10.4 1,599,011 -4.6 Source: Japan customs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
STB chair Oberman to leave rail agency on 10 May
STB chair Oberman to leave rail agency on 10 May
Washington, 26 April (Argus) — US Surface Transportation Board (STB) chairman Martin Oberman (D) said today that he would retire in two weeks, though a replacement has not been named. Oberman informed President Joe Biden of his decision in a letter earlier today. Oberman said in mid-November 2023 that he would exit the agency in early 2024 . His five-year term expired on 31 December but he continued to serve into his one-year holdover term. No additional details have been announced, but vice chairman Karen Hedlund (D) is expected to lead the rail regulator until a formal appointment has been made. Chairman Oberman's "commitment to exploring all sides of an issue was pivotal in helping to find solutions for stakeholders," the Freight Rail Customer Alliance said. National Grain and Feed Association chief executive Mike Seyfert said pointed to Oberman's actions in working toward significant regulatory milestones for agricultural shippers and railroads. Under Oberman's leadership, STB has moved forward on long-standing proposal to allow reciprocal switching. The switching plan would allow a shipper served by a single railroad to request that its freight be transferred to another major railroad at a designated interchange point. STB is expected to act on reciprocal switching as early as this month, after introducing a plan tied to railroad service performance in September 2023. His term was also highlighted by several major industry events, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern and the 2022 rail service crisis. Oberman was nominated by former US president Donald Trump in July 2018. His appointment was confirmed by the US Senate in January 2019 and he was appointed chairman by President Joe Biden in January 2021. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s JBIC to finance Chilean copper mine development
Japan’s JBIC to finance Chilean copper mine development
Osaka, 26 April (Argus) — Japan is enhancing its financial support for the development of copper mines in Chile, as part of efforts to increase its self-efficiency of base metals. State-owned Japan Bank for International Co-operation (JBIC) on 25 April signed a $248mn loan agreement with Chile-based joint-venture Compania Minera Arqueros (CMAQ) to finance development of its Arqueros copper project in Chile. CMAQ is 80pc owned by Japanese copper producer Nittetsu Mining and 20pc by Chilean firm Fondo de Inversion Privado Talcuna. The load will be co-financed by other Japanese private-sector financial firms, including Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, Mizuho Bank and MUFG Bank. The total co-funding will be $355mn. CMAQ plans to use the funding to develop Arqueros, located 35km northeast of La Serena. The mine is expected to produce 1.8mn t/yr of crude ore and 55,000 t/yr of copper concentrates for 15 years. The company aims to start operations in 2026. Nittetsu is to secure all the output from the project. The latest deal follows last month's loan agreement by JBIC and other financial institutes to provide $2.5bn to develop the Centinela copper mine in Chile . Japan relies on all its copper concentrates demand from imports, which has prompted the government to secure long-term and stable supplies of copper resources. The country's strategic energy plan has a target to achieve at least an 80pc self-sufficiency for base metals, including copper, by 2030. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US economic growth slows to 1.6pc in 1Q
US economic growth slows to 1.6pc in 1Q
Houston, 25 April (Argus) — The US economy in the first quarter grew at a 1.6pc annual pace, slower than expected, while a key measure of inflation accelerated. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) slowed from a 3.4pc annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The first-quarter growth number, the first of three estimates for the period, compares with analyst forecasts of about a 2.5pc gain. Personal consumption slowed to a 2.5pc annual rate in the first quarter from a 3.3pc pace in the fourth quarter, partly reflecting lower spending on motor vehicles and gasoline and other energy goods. Gross private domestic investment rose by 3.2pc, with residential spending up 13.9pc after a 2.8pc expansion in the fourth quarter. Government spending growth slowed to 1.2pc from 4.6pc. Private inventories fell and imports rose, weighing on growth. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve closely follows, rose by 3.7pc following 2pc annual growth in the fourth quarter, although consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics said revisions to the data should pull the index lower in coming months. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting its target lending rate in September following sharp increases in 2022 and early 2023 to fight inflation that surged to a high of 9.1pc in June 2022. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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