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Latest Market News

Argentina’s inflation extends gains

  • Spanish Market: Metals
  • 13/08/26

Argentina's annual inflation continued to increase in July, hitting 33.8pc, another high for the year and more than three times the government target.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 33.5pc in June from a year earlier, up from 33.2pc in May, the statistics agency Indec reported. The latest figure was down from 36.6pc in July 2025.

Leading the annualized increase was housing/utility, up 48.9pc, while transportation prices were up 40.9pc, education 40pc and entertainment, 36.7pc. Food/beverages increased by 34.5pc.

All the leading categories were up compared to the previous month.

On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 2.1pc in June, up from 1.9pc and matching the 2.1pc May rate. It peaked at 3.4pc in March for the year.

President Javier Milei's administration forecasts inflation at 10pc for the year, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts inflation at 30.4pc this year.

-By Lucien Chauvin

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13/08/26

Gulf war reverses fortunes for US OCTG demand

Gulf war reverses fortunes for US OCTG demand

Houston, 13 August (Argus) — US oil and gas drilling companies and rig owners have boosted their demand outlooks because of the global crude oil supply shock from the US-Iran war. US drilling contractors and oil country tubular goods (OCTG) producers now anticipate higher oil prices and increased oil and gas drilling to raise US demand in the second half of 2026, a far cry from declining rig counts and lower oil prices at the start of the year. Pipe and tube companies are bullish as crude oil prices bolstered by the war in the Middle East raise US drilling activity. The Argus West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fob Houston assessment stood at $84.82/bl on 11 August, up from $68.19/bl at the end of February and before the onset of the war. Rig contractors raise estimates Publicly traded drilling rig contractors have seen the greatest shift, as they now expect a second quarterly rig count increase. Drilling rig contractor Helmerich & Payne (H&P)'s shifting outlook reflects the war-fueled reversal of fortune in the industry. At the end of 2025, H&P lowered its rig count estimates for the first quarter because of lower oil prices and drilling activity. "Going into [2026], things felt relatively bearish, but I do think it's quite a different story right now," H&P chief financial office Todd Scruggs said. "We think this [third quarter] is a pretty good marker for where we're going to be in [2027], we actually think we will be improving from this base." But the stronger outlook remains contingent on oil prices staying elevated and the conflict not widening into a disruption that undercuts economic growth or drilling budgets. At the end of the first quarter, H&P and fellow drilling rig contractors Nabors and Patterson-UTI guided for the second quarter an average of 294-301 active US drilling rigs between them. The rig operators surpassed that outlook and exited the second quarter with an estimated 316 active drilling rigs in the US, which the companies expect to grow to an approximate 324 active rigs by the end of the third quarter. US private and independent oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) companies drove higher drilling rig demand as they capitalized on higher crude oil prices, gains that are expected to continue in the back half of the year. The US weekly active drilling rig count has held at 588 since mid July, the highest level since April 2025 and up from 539 a year earlier, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. Pipe producers expect US volumes to grow As more US drilling rigs activate, OCTG producers are working to take advantage of greater demand, import constraints and tight inventories. Higher US drilling activity and lower import volumes raised Vallourec's second quarter US tubular mill production and OCTG prices, chief executive Philippe Guillemot said on a 30 July earnings call. He added that US OCTG inventory levels are below five-year averages. Tenaris chief executive Gabriel Podskubka said the company's Bay City, Texas, seamless OCTG mill is running at record production levels to meet demand. OCTG prices have responded to the shortage and higher demand. The Argus Pipe Logix OCTG all items index, which reflects distributor selling prices, has climbed by $45/short ton (st) in July to $2,233/st, which is $224/st higher since the start of the year. Domestic OCTG mills have pushed about $600/st of price increases into the market and have struggled to bridge a large import supply gap despite raising production. US domestic OCTG pipe mill shipments collected by Argus and import volumes less exports from January-June are at 2.24mn st, down by about 500,000st from the same period in the prior year. OCTG supply declined solely on lower import volumes as major foreign OCTG suppliers like Austria and Taiwan are under US antidumping investigations, causing many US buyers to refrain from importing from those countries. The majority of US OCTG distributors remain optimistic that pricing will continue to rise, with the Argus OCTG distributors index at a positive reading of 86 in July, down by two points from June and the fifth consecutive positive reading. Multiple OCTG distributors reported sourcing difficulties in July for certain products that they would normally buy as imports and cannot find domestically. By Rye Druzchetta Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia bails out Tomago Al smelter for $1.77bn

13/08/26
13/08/26

Australia bails out Tomago Al smelter for $1.77bn

Sydney, 13 August (Argus) — The Australian federal and New South Wales (NSW) state governments have committed A$2.5bn ($1.77bn) to keep UK-Australian mining firm Rio Tinto's 590,000 t/yr Tomago aluminium smelter in NSW running until 2038. Tomago's current power supply agreement is set to expire on 31 December 2028, but the subsidy will support a 10-year power purchase agreement (PPA) for the smelter until 2038, which will be fully powered by renewable energy from 2033, Rio Tinto said on 13 August. The government funds will be used to build 3GW of new renewable generation and firming capacity, the federal government said today, finalising a promise made in late 2025 . Rio Tinto will also invest A$1.1bn of its own capital to fund the PPA, including a A$100mn allocation to decarbonise the smelter. Rio Tinto owns 51.55pc of Tomago. The remainder is controlled by Australian distributor Gove Aluminium Finance and Norwegian producer Norsk Hydro, with 36.05pc and 12.4pc respectively. Rio Tinto also operates the 39mn t/yr Weipa and 13mn t/yr Gove bauxite mines in northern Queensland, as well as the 3.95mn t/yr QAL and 1.7mn t/yr Yarwun alumina refineries near Gladstone in Queensland. Rio Tinto's 190,000 t/yr Bell Bay aluminium smelter in Tasmania also deserves similar federal support, Tasmanian premier Jeremy Rockliff said on 12 August. Federal and state governments gave A$2bn to Rio Tinto's 500,000 t/yr Boyne smelter in central Queensland in March to subsidise its operations until 2038. They have also issued billions of dollars in grants and loans to copper, steel and zinc smelters since last year. Price uncertainty Taxpayers will "receive the added benefit of a monetary return on [the] investment" if aluminium prices rise, the government said. Aluminium prices have been supported since February by supply disruption in the Mideast Gulf caused by the US-Iran war, as well as strong electric vehicle demand in China. But acute supply tightness has pushed prices higher than demand levels would normally justify, meaning that an end to the conflict may push prices down again. Prices have already dropped sharply from a peak in early June following expectations of a resolution to the war. Moreover, supply fundamentals could shift well before 2038, as Indonesia is set to almost triple aluminium production to 2.5mn t/yr by 2027. Argus -assessed London Metal Exchange aluminium cash official prices were down at $3,307.250/t on 12 August ( see graph ). By Daniel Gage-Brown Aluminium prices 2025-26 USD/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China's spodumene market awaits supply-demand signals

13/08/26
13/08/26

China's spodumene market awaits supply-demand signals

Beijing, 13 August (Argus) — China's imported spodumene market has remained relatively stable on broadly balanced market fundamentals, with its direction in the coming months likely to depend on how supply and demand dynamics evolve. Argus assessed 6pc spodumene concentrate at $2,020-2,120/t cif China on 11 August, unchanged from 4 August. Prices held steady over the period, as increased supply from Zimbabwe offset the impact of higher lithium salt prices and prevented further gains. Argus launched the world's first 5-5.5pc spodumene concentrate assessment in December 2025. The assessment stood at $1,820-1,970/t cif China on 11 August, also unchanged from 4 August. The launch reflected growing demand for lower-grade material, as years of intensive mining have reduced average spodumene grades from around 5.5-6.2pc to 5-5.5pc or lower at some operations. Shipments from Zimbabwe to China have continued to recover following the country's resumption of spodumene exports in April after an export ban introduced in February. This has been reflected in higher spodumene exports from South Africa, through which a significant portion of Zimbabwean shipments is routed. South Africa exported 111,514t of spodumene in May and 110,829t in June, up from 56,506t in April, according to customs data. China's spodumene supply base is also becoming more diversified. Australia remains the country's largest supplier, while Nigeria, South Africa, Brazil, Mali and Zimbabwe have emerged as important sources in recent years. Current lithium prices are viewed by market participants as attractive enough to encourage new project development and capacity expansion. Argus -assessed battery-grade lithium carbonate prices stood at 145,000-150,000 yuan/t ex-works on 12 August, a key benchmark indicator for the wider lithium market, up by around 20pc from the start of the year. Supply is increasing as Zimbabwean shipments recover and additional capacity comes on line in other regions. At the same time, demand is also growing. The direction of spodumene prices in the coming months will largely depend on whether supply or demand expands at a faster pace, market participants said. Global lithium demand has remained robust this year, driven by continued growth in the electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage sectors. China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales continued to rise in July, with the penetration rate reaching a record 60.4pc, supported primarily by strong export demand. Higher oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East have continued to improve the cost competitiveness of NEVs relative to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. Energy storage systems are also seeing rapid global deployment. The sector has been characterised by accelerating project commissioning, expanding overseas partnerships by Chinese battery manufacturers and increasing competition among battery chemistries. Global cumulative energy storage capacity reached around 280GW at the end of 2025, up by about 67pc from a year earlier, according to industry estimates. Strong downstream demand has also supported lithium chemical production. China's combined output of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide reached 724,000t lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in January-June, up by 26pc from a year earlier, according to data from the Lithium Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US inflation ticks lower as Gulf war simmers

12/08/26
12/08/26

US inflation ticks lower as Gulf war simmers

Houston, 12 August (Argus) — US inflation eased slightly in July as underlying price pressures cooled, giving the Federal Reserve more room to hold rates steady even as the unresolved Mideast Gulf war kept energy costs elevated. The consumer prices index (CPI) rose in July at a 3.4pc annual pace, according to the Labor Department, down from 3.5pc in June. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose at a 2.5pc pace, down from 2.6pc in June. Both were in line with estimates of analysts surveyed by Trading Economics and followed a jobs report last week showing weak US labor market conditions, Pantheon Macroeconomics in a note to clients said the "benign CPI data" give the Fed "solid grounds, alongside the weak jobs data, for keeping policy unchanged next month". The July report reinforces the view that inflation is no longer accelerating. Combined with last week's weaker-than-expected employment report, the data reduced expectations that the Fed will raise rates at its September meeting. The CME FedWatch tool probabilities following the CPI release implied a 38pc chance of a September hike, down from 54.5pc odds a week ago. On a monthly basis, CPI crept up by 0.1pc in July after falling by 0.4pc in June, while the core index rose by 0.2pc for the month after no change in June, suggesting renewed pressures after Gulf war hostilities resumed in July following a brief ceasefire. The energy index rose by 14.7pc for the 12 months ended in July, slowing from a 15.7pc gain in June. Energy commodities rose by 24.7pc in July, down from a 27.1pc gain in June. Gasoline rose on the year by 24.6pc, slowing from a 26.7pc gain the prior month. Fuel oil rose by 39.1pc following a 42.9pc gain. Piped gas services rose on the year by 4.3pc after a 3pc gain in June. The food index rose at an annual 3pc pace in July, unchanged from the prior month. "The decline in gasoline prices will likely get reversed in August," Oxford Economics said in a note. Shelter rose at a 3.2pc pace, slowing from 3.3pc in June. Services less energy services, considered a core reading of service prices, rose at a 3pc pace, slowing from 3.2pc in June. New vehicle prices rose on the year by 0.5pc in July, unchanged from June, while used vehicles prices fell by 1.9pc in July compared with a 1.8pc decline in June. Medical care services rose at a 2.7pc pace, down from 2.9pc in June. Transportation services rose by 2.9pc. slowing from 3.4pc. Airline fares rose from a year earlier by 25.5pc in July, compared with 26.5pc the prior month. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico industrial output rebounds in June

11/08/26
11/08/26

Mexico industrial output rebounds in June

Mexico City, 11 August (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production expanded by 0.2pc in June from the previous month, marking gains in two of the second quarter's three months as construction showed signs of a tentative recovery. The June increase in Mexico's industrial activity indicator (IMAI), reported Tuesday by statistics agency Inegi, followed a revised 0.7pc contraction in May and a 2.1pc expansion in April. Industrial activity posted a cumulative net increase of 1.6pc over the second quarter. The June result matched the consensus forecast cited by Mexican bank Banorte. Construction, which accounts for 19pc of the IMAI, expanded by 3pc in June, rebounding from a 3.7pc decline in May after a 7pc increase in April. Within the sector, building construction rose by 4.8pc in June after falling 5.5pc in May. Civil engineering fell by 2.7pc, reversing a 4.5pc May increase. Weakness remained concentrated in manufacturing, which declined by 0.6pc in June after a 0.1pc drop in May and a 1.1pc increase in April. Ten of 21 manufacturing subsectors contracted in June. The heavily weighted transport equipment segment fell 3.2pc in June, its first decline since January and the steepest since July 2025. Machinery and equipment output fell by 1.4pc after a 3.1pc May increase, while electronic equipment expanded by 0.5pc after declining 0.1pc. Mining expanded by 0.6pc in June, led by a 10.5pc increase in related services, with the oil component also positive at 0.2pc. This follows 0.3pc expansion in May and a 0.2pc decline in April. Generation, transmission and distribution of electricity, natural gas and water rose by 0.9pc in June, marking its first monthly expansion of 2026 after contraction of 0.4pc in May. Industrial production returned to positive territory in annual terms, expanding 1.7pc in June from a year prior, with all four sectors posting increases. Mining was the top performer, rising 6.6pc, followed by construction at 5pc. Utilities rose by an annual 0.7pc, with manufacturing edging 0.1pc higher. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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