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Biden win raises doubts on new US pipeline projects

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 16/11/20

US pipeline projects will face greater obstacles under a Joe Biden presidency, and some could face the end of the road. But a clampdown on new lines may make existing ones more valuable, and some could be repurposed in an energy transition.

Biden's election win promises an abrupt shift in federal energy policy, including expanding renewables and rescinding preferential policies for the oil and gas sector. His victory over President Donald Trump could spell the end of a very long road for the totemic Keystone XL — an $8bn, 830,000 b/d project that has been on the books for more than a decade, seeking to move crude from western Canada to the US midcontinent (see map). Biden's campaign has pledged to withdraw the presidential permit needed for Keystone XL to operate, ringing a possible death knell for the pipeline.

Canadian firm TC Energy downplayed the Biden risk, banking on the appeal of its partnerships with five indigenous peoples groups as well as $1.6bn in labour agreements with US trade unions. But the company is facing legal headwinds after a key water permit was thrown out by US courts.

The new Democratic administration will be under pressure from environmental groups to take aggressive action on climate issues, and one of the biggest targets is US midstream firm Energy Transfer's Dakota Access pipeline. The 570,000 b/d line, in service since 2017, is facing a possible shutdown in December because of a court case surrounding its environmental permitting. Biden's running mate Kamala Harris was one of three dozen lawmakers who in May urged a federal court to shut the line while a new environmental review is pending. Energy Transfer says it is confident that Dakota Access will continue to operate as the case moves through the courts. But a Biden administration could intervene.

A Biden presidency will also bring a halt to an overhaul of infrastructure permitting rules that Trump finalised this year. Those revisions sought to fast-track the approval of natural gas pipelines and other infrastructure by removing the need for regulators to evaluate "remote" effects such as climate change. Biden has vowed to reverse the changes and apply greater scrutiny on how building new pipelines could increase or reduce emissions. His victory could also pose permitting obstacles for large projects under construction, such as the $6bn Mountain Valley gas pipeline. Environmentalists have asked regulators to revisit how construction could affect endangered species and water quality along the line's route.

Taking the high ground

While some projects face a tougher road ahead, US midstream operators are touting the value of pipelines already in the ground. A Biden government could lift the value of existing infrastructure and rekindle interest in a waning midstream corporate structure, US independent refiner Phillips 66's chief executive, Greg Garland, says. Higher corporate taxes favoured by Democrats could increase the value of master limited partnerships that proliferated under President Barack Obama but have consolidated under Trump. And a Democratic administration would support the spread of interest in climate programmes and accounting for the cost of carbon, he says.

US pipeline operator Kinder Morgan chairman Richard Kinder says the firm's vast pipeline infrastructure could be adapted to "play an important role in facilitating many of the changes being advocated to lessen global emissions". Kinder Morgan could modify lines to carry green hydrogen or renewable diesel, he says. Midstream firms' third-quarter earnings calls showed a clear pivot on climate change in the sector, with pipeline giant Enbridge going as far as to pledge net zero carbon emissions from its operations by 2050.

US and Canada pipelines

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04/02/25

Mexican peso volatility persists despite tariff delay

Mexican peso volatility persists despite tariff delay

Mexico City, 4 February (Argus) — The Mexican peso remains volatile despite a bump from the last-minute deal postponing US President Donald Trump's threatened 25pc tariffs on Mexican imports, financial analysts said. The US agreed Monday to delay the tariffs for one month after discussions between Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. In return, Mexico pledged to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to its northern border to combat drug trafficking, with a focus on fentanyl. The peso initially reacted positively to the news, strengthening by nearly 3pc late Monday after the agreement was announced. Still, today the Mexican peso weakened 0.4pc to Ps20.5 to the dollar by the end of trading, according to data from Mexico's Central Bank (Banxico). The peso has depreciated 16.6pc against the dollar from a year ago, according to Banxico data. The currency will remain volatile until there is greater clarity on whether tariffs will ultimately be imposed and at what level, BBVA Mexico bank analysts said in a note. If the US proceeds with a 25pc tariff, the peso could weaken to Ps24/$1, pushing Mexico's economy into a 1.5pc contraction this year, according to the bank. A lower 10pc tariff would be more manageable, BBVA Mexico added, as peso depreciation would offset some cost increases for US importers. In that scenario, Mexico's economy could still grow by 1pc in 2025. "Markets have debated whether to take Trump's policy promises seriously but not literally, or both seriously and literally," Barclays analysts wrote in a note to investors. Barclays also noted that the US sees itself as having the upper hand in any trade war, as a far greater share of Canadian and Mexican exports depend on US demand than vice versa. Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex typically benefits from peso depreciation because of its US dollar-denominated crude exports, which help offset higher fuel import costs. "Pemex's revenues are tied to international oil prices, providing a natural hedge," the company said in its latest earnings report. However, analysts warned that Pemex's shift toward domestic refining over exports could reduce this buffer, leaving the company more vulnerable to foreign exchange swings, particularly as it carries a large dollar-denominated debt load. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Engie converts Chile diesel plant to renewables


04/02/25
04/02/25

Engie converts Chile diesel plant to renewables

Santiago, 4 February (Argus) — French utility Engie has started commercial operations at its 68MW Tamaya battery energy storage system (BESS) on the site of its former diesel-fired power plant near Tocopilla in northern Chile's Antofagasta region. BESS Tamaya will store electricity generated by the 114MW Tamaya photovoltaic (PV) plant on the same site, which began operations in February 2022. The company is "repurposing the site to give it a second life and continue contributing to the local economy," said Engie Chile chief executive Rosaline Corinthien. BESS Tamaya consists of 152 lithium battery containers with a storage capacity of 418MWh. It will be able to supply 50,800 homes over five hours of peak demand. Engie is also constructing the 116MW Tocopilla BESS operation at its former Tocopilla coal and fuel oil-fired power complex in the same region. It disconnected the complex from the grid in September 2023. Engie is the fourth-largest generator in Chile with 2.6GW of installed capacity. Its BESS portfolio consists of 2GWh in operation and construction. The conversion of fossil fuel-fired plants is part of Chile's decarbonization plan to ensure a "just" energy transition, providing new sustainable economic activity for communities. Since 2019, Chile has withdrawn 11 coal plants for a combined 1.7GW and is committed to closing the remaining 17 coal plants by 2040. By Emily Russell Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

HU-SK summer 2025 gas capacity nearly fully booked


04/02/25
04/02/25

HU-SK summer 2025 gas capacity nearly fully booked

London, 4 February (Argus) — Gas transmission capacity from Hungary towards Slovakia is almost entirely booked for the summer following near sold-out quarterly auctions on 3 February. Following a decision in January to make higher capacity at Balassagyarmat/Velke Zlievce permanent , the additional 25.4 GWh/d of space was offered for the next two quarters, with 23 GWh/d allocated for both ( see table ). After these auctions, roughly 99.4 GWh/d out of total technical capacity of 101.8 GWh/d from Hungary towards Slovakia has been allocated for April-September, although bookings drop to 68.7 GWh/d from October, Entso-G data show. Flows in this direction have been strong this year, averaging 87 GWh/d on 1 January-3 February, driven by Slovakia's need to replace Russian gas after the end of transit through Ukraine. And on the Hungarian-Ukrainian border at VIP Bereg, roughly 35 GWh/d of unbundled exit capacity was booked. Flows to Ukraine at Bereg averaged 17 GWh/d on 1 January-3 February, well below 56 GWh/d in December. Interest in this capacity may have been spurred by buying interest from Ukraine's Naftogaz , although throughout last summer there were also quick flows at Bereg, which then transited to Poland making use of Ukraine's short-haul regime. Elsewhere in the region, there was strong interest in quarterly bookings at VIP Brandov, on the German-Czech border, where 53 GWh/d was booked towards the Czech Republic for the second quarter and 48 GWh/d for the third quarter. Brandov has served as the only entry point for Czech supply since the turn of the year, as flows from Slovakia at Lanzhot dropped to zero after Russian transit halted. Given that the Czech Republic has national targets obliging a 90pc stockfill by 1 November, and storage was 51.4pc full as of Monday morning, there will probably be a need for a strong stockbuild this summer, necessitating inflows from Germany. By Brendan A'Hearn Quarterly capacity bookings GWh/d Network point Period Capacity Type Exit TSO Quality Exit TSO Entry TSO Quality entry TSO Offered capacity Allocated capacity VIP Brandov (DE/CZ) 2Q25 Bundled Gascade FZK firm Net4Gas FZK firm 154.1 53.4 VIP Brandov (DE/CZ) 3Q25 Bundled Gascade FZK firm Net4Gas FZK firm 151.3 47.8 VIP Bereg (HU/UA) 2Q25 Unbundled FGSZ Firm GTSOU 103.5 34.8 Balassagyarmat (HU) / Velke Zlievce (SK) 2Q25 Bundled FGSZ Firm Eustream Firm 25.4 23.0 Balassagyarmat (HU) / Velke Zlievce (SK) 3Q25 Bundled FGSZ Firm Eustream Firm 25.4 23.0 Kireevo (BG) / Zaychar (RS) 2Q25 Unbundled Bulgartransgaz Firm Gastrans 82.9 6.0 — RBP, Prisma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Baghdad, Erbil take steps to restart Kurdish oil flows


04/02/25
04/02/25

Baghdad, Erbil take steps to restart Kurdish oil flows

Dubai, 4 February (Argus) — Iraq's oil ministry has officially asked the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to start delivering oil to state marketer Somo as part of a deal reached between Baghdad and Erbil to restart north Iraqi crude oil exports through the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. "The Turkish and Iraqi governments are taking the steps to prepare the Iraq-Turkey pipeline [ITP] to export crude through the port of Ceyhan," Iraq's oil minister Hayan Abdulghani told state news agency INA. He said that no less than 300,000 b/d of the Iraqi semi-autonomous Kurdish region's crude will be exported once the pipeline is back in operation. "The debts owed by the Kurdistan region are being agreed upon between the two parties," he added. Abdulghani did not provide an official date for the resumption of exports. Iraq's oil ministry has been approached for comment. But his remarks signal that a restart of the country's northern crude is close, made possible by Iraq's parliament approving a key budget amendment on 2 February that will see oil companies operating in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region get $16/bl for their production and transportation costs , double the previous rate. As part of the amendment, an international consulting firm will be tasked with auditing Kurdish production and transportation costs over a 60-day period. Iraq's federal oil ministry and its KRG counterpart will co-ordinate on appointing the auditor but if they fail to reach agreement, the Iraqi government will make the selection unilaterally. Opec+ commitments Disagreement between Baghdad and the KRG over commercial terms has prevented the resumption of Kurdish crude exports have yet to resume from Ceyhan after the pipeline linking the port with oil fields in northern Iraq was closed by Turkey in March 2023. The closure followed an international arbitration ruling that said Turkey had breached a bilateral agreement with Iraq by allowing KRG crude to be exported without Baghdad's consent. While the resumption of oil flows via Ceyhan should give the Iraqi oil ministry more visibility on how much crude is being produced in the Kurdistan region, Baghdad may still find itself in a dilemma as regards its Opec+ commitments. Iraq has been the biggest overproducer in Opec+ for over a year, and officials there have said a lack of visibility about output from the northern region has complicated its efforts to comply. Baghdad will now have to balance its own production alongside that of Erbil, while ensuring it adheres to its Opec+ quota and its compensation commitments. Opec+ has come under pressure as US President Donald Trump recently called for the producer group to "bring down the cost of oil". But so far, Opec+ has not heeded those calls with its key ministerial panel agreeing on 3 February to keep its policy as is, meaning it would not see any production returned to market until at least April. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump makes U-turn on Canada, Mexico tariffs: Update


03/02/25
03/02/25

Trump makes U-turn on Canada, Mexico tariffs: Update

Washington, 3 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump reversed course on planned tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, delaying their implementation by one month. Trump over the weekend issued executive orders for a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico, a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports from Canada, a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports and a 10pc tariff on all imports from China, all to be effective on 4 February. But Trump delayed the tariffs on Mexico and Canada by a month and has indicated that tariffs on China likewise could be subject to negotiations with Beijing. Trump's decision-making on Mexico and Canada tariffs so far looks like a signature move from his first term — escalatory rhetoric and action followed by de-escalation after extracting concessions that do not appear to be significant. Trump said today he agreed to postpone the implementation of tariffs on Mexican goods after receiving assurances from Mexico president Claudia Sheinbaum that she would immediately reinforce the shared border with 10,000 national guard troops. Trump also cited similar assurances from Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau. "As President, it is my responsibility to ensure the safety of ALL Americans, and I am doing just that," Trump said via his social media platform. "I am very pleased with this initial outcome." In both cases, the border security pledges touted by Sheinbaum and Trudeau recast initiatives already planned or underway. Trump told reporters today he would "be speaking to China probably over the next 24 hours" — likely meaning the country's president Xi Jinping. Unlike Mexico and Canada, China has taken a restrained stance to Trump's announcement of tariffs. Like the US immediate neighbors, China already has been taking steps to cut off the illegal manufacturing and exports of precursors for fentanyl — the pretext for Trump's tariffs. Things can only get bitter The announcement of tariffs that would have directly hit US energy trade will leave many in the industry scratching their heads about Trump's future moves. A major trade war that would have severely curtailed the flow of energy and other commodities across North America is averted for now, but Trump is signaling that tariffs remain a key plank on his policy agenda. Trump has shrugged off any negative impacts on the US energy sector and the broader economy, saying over the weekend that "WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID." In remarks to reporters today, Trump pushed back against criticism of negative impacts of his tariffs. "Very simply, every single country that you're writing about right now is dying to make a deal," Trump said. In the immediate term, the Trump administration will hold high-level talks with the governments of Mexico and Canada against the deadline for the delayed imposition of tariffs. But down the line, there are other motivations for Trump to move forward with tariffs against key US trading partners. Trump today once again decried the "massive deficits" the US has in trade with Canada, Mexico, China, the EU and the UK. And then there is the lure of tariff revenue that Trump — with an eye toward upcoming congressional deliberation of extending tax cuts beyond 2025 — says would be sufficient to offset lower personal and corporate taxes. Trump set a 1 April deadline for US government agencies to prepare a report on "unfair trade practices" by key US trading partners, which would kick off a legal process for imposing tariffs in the following two months. Trump is separately planning to review the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement that his first administration negotiated in 2019. Unlike the tariffs that were due to be imposed on Tuesday by an executive order, the broader plan for tariffs scheduled to kick in after 1 April would be harder to reverse or to negotiate away. And his first two weeks in office show that, despite his claim to be championing America's "energy dominance", the US energy industry would not be exempt during the upcoming trade wars. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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