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Venezuela prepares olive branch as US reviews sanctions

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products
  • 11/02/21

Venezuela's government is cautiously preparing some conciliatory gestures as part of a strategy to clean up its international image and persuade the new US administration to ease sanctions.

A Venezuelan court this week ordered that criminal trials must begin promptly for former oil minister and state-owned PdV chief executive Eulogio Del Pino and four other senior oil executives who were arrested in late 2017 on charges of alleged corruption.

Venezuela's justice system, as with all other official institutions and governing branches, is controlled by President Nicolas Maduro's administration, the target of US financial sanctions since August 2017 and oil sanctions since January 2019.

Although there is no sign that the men would escape conviction, they could be shifted to house arrest. At least one of them is believed to have health problems.

The court trials were announced toward the end of a visit by a UN Special Rapporteur on human rights and unilateral coercive measures, Alena Douhan, who arrived in Venezuela on 1 February and is scheduled to depart tomorrow.

Meanwhile in Washington, President Joe Biden's administration is weighing adjustments to the sanctions — including a restoration of crude-for-diesel swaps by non-US companies and more flexible operating terms for Chevron and US oil service companies — as a way to alleviate Venezuela's humanitarian plight, particularly in light of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Maduro and his inner circle "are trying to whitewash their image. But they have no credibility," a former senior PdV official close to the five men tells Argus.

One of the Venezuelan national oil industry's last veteran managers, Del Pino was hard-pressed to balance the need for extensive foreign investment with the government's nationalist inclinations.

Del Pino and Nelson Martinez, who also served as oil minister and PdV chief executive as well as head of PdV's US refining unit Citgo, were arrested in pre-dawn raids in November 2017. Martinez died in custody just over a year later.

The other men that the 10th court of control in Caracas ordered to trial are former PdV western division manager Gustavo Malave, former PdV joint venture subsidiary CVP president Orlando Chacin and western division security chiefs Henry Sanchez and Adolfo Torres.

The arrests of the five men took place during a widespread industry purge of alleged corruption inside the industry, but subsequent investigations never came to fruition. Their defenders say Maduro sought to scapegoat them for the industry's steep deterioration, as illustrated by tumbling oil production and the breakdown of nearly all of PdV's refining capacity.

Citgo-6

The imminent trials, albeit lacking in credibility, have sparked speculation that Maduro could release six former Citgo executives who were lured back to Caracas from Houston in late 2017 and subsequently arrested.

Last November, a Venezuelan judge convicted them of corruption. An appeal is pending.

Five of the six convicted executives — known as the Citgo-6 — are naturalized US citizens, including former board members and vice presidents Tomeu Vadell, Gustavo Cardenas, Jorge Toledo, and brothers Jose Luis and Alirio Zambrano. The sixth, former Citgo acting president Jose Pereira, is a permanent US resident.

Vadell's daughter Veronica Vadell Weggemen reiterated her father's innocence and told Argus the family is "hoping for a gesture of good faith."

Last week, the Citgo-6 families participated in a global call with new US secretary of state Tony Blinken on US detainees abroad.

Since early 2019, Citgo has been controlled by Venezuela's US-backed political opposition, effectively severing ties with its parent company in Caracas.


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14/10/24

Permian producers face new headwinds

Permian producers face new headwinds

London, 14 October (Argus) — Growing associated gas production and rising breakeven prices for new oil wells are creating fresh challenges for Permian producers. Oil output in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico is growing more slowly than expected. The EIA revised down forecasts for 2024 Permian production in this month's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) following changes to historical output data. Permian production is now forecast to rise by 6.1pc this year and 3.6pc next, down from 7.8pc and 3.9pc, respectively, a month ago. Activity in the Permian oil and gas sector edged down in the third quarter, firms participating in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey say. Low Waha natural gas trading hub prices prompted about a third of 23 active exploration and production (E&P) firms to curtail production, and another third to either delay and defer drilling or well completions. Permian gas prices were negative — meaning that sellers pay buyers to take gas — for most of the six months before early September, as associated gas production exceeded pipeline capacity to move it to market. But Waha prices turned positive again last month as gas began to flow out of the region along the new Matterhorn Express pipeline. Deliveries on the 2.5bn cf/d (25bn m³/yr) Matterhorn pipeline have averaged about 600mn cf/d this month, Gelber & Associates analysts say. Flows are expected to ramp up to full capacity before the end of 2024, but robust associated gas production in the Permian remains a constant factor. The Permian basin now accounts for around a fifth of US natural gas production and is the fastest-growing source of new supply, as rising oil output adds increasing volumes of associated gas (see graph). The GOR — the average ratio of gas output ('000 cf) to oil production (bl) — in the Permian has increased from around 2 to over 3.5 since 2012, data from analysts Novi Labs show. The GOR for Permian wells typically rises during the life of a well. The GOR for Midland wells trebles from 1 to 3 after five years of production and nearly doubles for Delaware wells from just over 2 to just over 4. So the GOR inevitably rises as the share of legacy wells in overall output grows. Tiers for fears Firms are also using up the better drilling locations. Shale is not a uniform resource. Despite impressive advances in productivity over the past decade, rock quality remains the most important driver of well performance. Operators target high-quality (tier 1) wells first if they can, leaving lower-quality tier 2–4 wells for later, hoping that improvements in drilling and completion technology and efficiency will offset poorer yields. Less than two-fifths of the 25,000 drilling sites estimated to remain in the Midland basin offer a breakeven below $60/bl over a two-year period, according to a new assessment by Novi Labs using detailed rock quality data and incorporating the impact of infill well spacing patterns (see graph). Results reflect huge geologic variation within the basin and yield a weighted-average breakeven of $74/bl for the potential inventory of undrilled Midland wells. "Average tier 1 rock breaks even on average at $60/bl, but that number for tier 4 rises to $96/bl," Novi's Ted Cross says. For comparison, breakeven WTI prices for drilling a new oil well in the Midland basin ranged from $40-85/bl and averaged $62/bl, according to 87 E&P firms surveyed by the Dallas Fed in March (see graph). Over the past five years, average breakeven prices for new Midland oil wells from the Dallas Fed Energy Survey increased by a just over a third from $46/bl. In 2020, Midland breakeven prices ranged from $30-60/bl. Midland basin remaining well locations Permian oil and gas production Breakeven prices for new wells survey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec again lowers oil demand growth forecasts


14/10/24
14/10/24

Opec again lowers oil demand growth forecasts

London, 14 October (Argus) — Opec has cut its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 for a third month in a row, bringing its projections slightly closer to other outlooks that have long seen much lower consumption. In its latest Monthly Oil Market Repor t (MOMR) the producer group revised down its 2024 demand growth projection by 110,000 b/d to 1.93mn b/d, driven by China and the Middle East. This is 320,000 b/d lower than the 2.25mn b/d growth Opec had been forecasting until it made its first downward revision for 2024 in August. The biggest reason for the latest downgrade was China, where Opec now sees demand growing by 580,000 b/d in 2024 compared with 650,000 b/d in its previous report. But Opec's demand growth forecasts remain bullish when compared with other outlooks. The IEA projects oil demand will increase by 900,000 b/d in 2024, while the EIA sees growth of 920,000 b/d. The story is similar for 2025. While Opec today lowered its oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 b/d to 1.64mn b/d, this is still much higher than the IEA's forecast of 950,000 b/d and the EIA's 1.29mn b/d. Expectations of weaker demand this year dragged on oil prices in recent weeks. Front-month Ice Brent crude futures prices fell to the lowest this year on 10 September at $69.19/bl, although rising tensions in the Middle East have more recently pushed the price closer to $80/bl. On the supply side, the group kept its non-Opec+ liquids growth estimate for 2024 unchanged at 1.23mn b/d. It nudged up its forecast for next year by 10,000 b/d to 1.11mn b/d. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 557,000 b/d to 40.104mn b/d in September, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . This is about 2.7mn b/d below Opec's projected call on Opec+ crude for this year, which stands at 42.8mn b/d. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Florida fuel supply edging toward normal post-storm


11/10/24
11/10/24

Florida fuel supply edging toward normal post-storm

Houston, 11 October (Argus) — Some Florida fuel terminals and a major refined products pipeline expect to restore operations over the weekend thanks to minimal damage from Hurricane Milton, but a return to normal in Port Tampa is being hampered by power outages. Kinder Morgan's Orlando terminal is operational but the company is still assessing its Tampa area terminals and the Central Florida Pipeline (CFPL) after Hurricane Milton made landfall as a category 3 storm late Wednesday, a spokesperson said at 3pm ET Friday. Kinder plans to have its Tampa fuels rack and 16-inch CFPL pipeline online by late Saturday and the 10-inch CFPL pipeline online by the end of the weekend. The company's three Tampa bulk terminals are likely to remain offline Friday due to widespread power outages and damage to the surrounding area. The CFPL pipeline transports gasoline, diesel, ethanol and jet fuel to Orlando, including to Orlando International Airport, and is connected to Kinder's Tampa refined products terminal that has 1.8mn bls of storage. Nearly half of Florida's supply of petroleum and refined products passes through Port Tampa Bay, the majority via waterborne cargo from the US Gulf coast. Port Tampa Bay is still assessing its land and seaside operations, port officials said this morning. It re-opened for limited operations late Thursday having avoided widespread flooding, though power outages in the area remain an issue. Global Partners' Tampa terminal is without power and running on generators, the company said today. Employees are cleaning up minor damage and Global expects the facility to be "fully operational soon". Buckeye Partners' Jacksonville and Fort Lauderdale, Florida, terminals are fully operational and the company is working to restore operations at its two Tampa terminals, a Buckeye spokesperson said today. Chevron is repairing damage at its Tampa terminal, but did not give a time line for a return to normal operations. The company's Port Everglades and Panama City terminals are online and selling fuels, the company said today. Citgo expects its Tampa terminal to restore operations by mid-to-late next week, the company said today. The St Petersburg-Clearwater International airport (PIE) west of Port Tampa is expected to open at 4pm ET Friday according to the Federal Aviation Administration. The Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport further south is expected to reopen early Saturday morning. Miami airport is open and Orlando International resumed commercial flights today. Prices for Florida CBOB delivered at Tampa and Port Everglades fell by 1.87¢/USG to $2.15/USG today. Cash differentials were stable in the Florida gasoline cargo markets at Argus Gulf coast Colonial CBOB +10¢/USG. Prices for Florida ULSD delivered to Port Everglades fell by 0.44¢/USG to $2.39/USG today. Cash differentials were unchanged in the waterborne ULSD cargo markets at Argus Gulf coast Colonial ULSD +12.25¢/USG. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Feds probing fatal Pemex Deer Park accident


11/10/24
11/10/24

Feds probing fatal Pemex Deer Park accident

Houston, 11 October (Argus) — The US Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) and Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) are both launching independent investigations into this week's fatal accident at Pemex's 312,500 b/d Deer Park, Texas, refinery. A hydrogen sulfide (H2S) release that killed two workers and injured dozens more occurred on Thursday evening at the plant located near Houston. It also led to shelter-in-place orders for surrounding communities, which have since been lifted. The CSB will investigate the causes of the fatal release, the agency said Friday. The CSB is responsible for investigating industrial accidents in the US, such as the deadly 2022 explosion at BP's Toledo refinery in Ohio and a probe into operations at Marathon's Martinez renewable diesel plant after several fires earlier this year . A representative for CSB was not immediately available for comment. OSHA — charged with enforcing compliance with federal workplace safety laws — is also investigating the incident, and has "up to six months" to complete the investigation, according to an OSHA representative. OSHA would not stop company operations during the duration of the investigation, but "could not speak for other agencies at the site," an OSHA official told Argus. The Harris County Sheriff's department has also opened an investigation into the incident. The release occurred as workers began planned maintenance on a unit. An H2S leak was detected, resulting in several units being shut down as staff sought to secure the leak. The Deer Park refinery had previously been damaged in a February 2023 fire, resulting in two weeks of repairs. A slew of accidents at Deer Park and several other Mexican state-owned Pemex's refineries in part led Fitch Ratings to downgrade Pemex's credit rating in July 2023 . By Gordon Pollock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ cuts hit 4mn b/d


11/10/24
11/10/24

Opec+ cuts hit 4mn b/d

London, 11 October (Argus) — Opec+ has reduced its crude production by 4mn b/d since it started cutting output almost two years ago, Argus' latest output survey shows. Crude output by members subject to cuts fell by 220,000 b/d in September to 33.52mn b/d, driven by reductions in Iraq and Nigeria (see table). This compares with 37.52mn b/d in October 2022, when the alliance announced what would prove to be the in a series of production cuts. September output was not only the lowest since April 2021, but also 330,000 b/d below the group's collective production target. But even with the removal of such a vast amount of crude from the market, oil prices remain $11-15/bl below where they were when Opec+ announced its October 2022 cut. This is partly because production from non-Opec members such as the US, Guyana and Brazil has surged. The US alone has boosted production by 830,000 b/d over the past two years. The lower prices are also partly down to lower-than-expected oil demand, particularly in China. The IEA has made and sees global oil demand growing by under 1mn b/d this year and next, well below the 2.1mn b/d increase seen in 2023. Despite the gloomy demand picture, eight Opec+ members are scheduled to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of production cuts from December — two months later than initially planned. This is not a foregone conclusion — the group has said this could change depending on market conditions — but a decision to push ahead would only widen an expected supply surplus next year. The eight members are expected to decide on whether to start returning production in early November. Opec+ will be keenly watching how the conflict between Israel and Iran plays out over the coming days and weeks. Rising tensions propelled Atlantic basin benchmark North Sea Dated above $81/bl on 7 October. There are fears that Israel could strike Iran's oil infrastructure in retaliation for . This would put Iranian production — which rose to 3.37mn b/d in September — at risk. Any attack on Iran's oil sector could conceivably see Tehran disrupt regional oil flows through the strait of Hormuz , through which more than 15mn b/d of crude and products are exported. Compensation questions Another factor that could influence Opec+ policy in the coming weeks is the extent to which serial overproducers Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia can show they are for exceeding their targets. In an effort to start complying with its commitments, Iraq reduced its production by 130,000 b/d in September, Argus estimates. But this was still 70,000 b/d above its Opec+ target of 4mn b/d, and 170,000 b/d above its effective target in September under its compensation plan. Kazakhstan's output rose by 40,000 b/d to 1.48mn b/d in September, 10,000 b/d above its Opec+ quota and 40,000 b/d above the effective target in its compensation plan. All eyes are now on the country's October output, when it is due to deliver the largest chunk of its compensation commitment, which has been designed to coincide with maintenance at its Kashagan field . Russia's production edged down by 10,000 b/d to 8.97mn b/d, in line with its target. Libya's output fell by a hefty 370,000 b/d to 550,000 b/d in September as an oil blockade declared in late August took its toll. But with the blockade lifted in early October, production has already returned close to the country's normal level of about 1.2mn b/d. Venezuela's production rose by 20,000 b/d to 900,000 b/d — the highest since February 2019. Both Venezuela and Libya are exempt from production targets. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Sep Aug* Target† ± target Opec 9 21.18 21.45 21.23 -0.05 Non-Opec 9 12.34 12.29 12.62 -0.28 Total 33.52 33.74 33.85 -0.33 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Sep Aug* Target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.92 8.96 8.98 -0.06 Iraq 4.07 4.20 4.00 +0.07 Kuwait 2.46 2.40 2.41 +0.05 UAE 2.95 2.98 2.91 +0.04 Algeria 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.00 Nigeria 1.36 1.45 1.50 -0.14 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.24 0.26 0.28 -0.04 Gabon 0.21 0.23 0.17 +0.04 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.06 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.18 21.45 21.23 -0.05 Iran 3.37 3.33 na na Libya 0.55 0.92 na na Venezuela 0.90 0.88 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.00 26.58 na na *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Sep Aug* Target† ± target Russia 8.97 8.98 8.98 -0.01 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.76 +0.00 Azerbaijan 0.49 0.48 0.55 -0.06 Kazakhstan 1.48 1.44 1.47 +0.01 Malaysia 0.32 0.31 0.40 -0.08 Bahrain 0.16 0.15 0.20 -0.04 Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.05 0.06 0.12 -0.07 Total non-Opec 12.34 12.29 12.62 -0.28 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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