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Venezuela prepares olive branch as US reviews sanctions

  • Market: Crude oil, Oil products
  • 11/02/21

Venezuela's government is cautiously preparing some conciliatory gestures as part of a strategy to clean up its international image and persuade the new US administration to ease sanctions.

A Venezuelan court this week ordered that criminal trials must begin promptly for former oil minister and state-owned PdV chief executive Eulogio Del Pino and four other senior oil executives who were arrested in late 2017 on charges of alleged corruption.

Venezuela's justice system, as with all other official institutions and governing branches, is controlled by President Nicolas Maduro's administration, the target of US financial sanctions since August 2017 and oil sanctions since January 2019.

Although there is no sign that the men would escape conviction, they could be shifted to house arrest. At least one of them is believed to have health problems.

The court trials were announced toward the end of a visit by a UN Special Rapporteur on human rights and unilateral coercive measures, Alena Douhan, who arrived in Venezuela on 1 February and is scheduled to depart tomorrow.

Meanwhile in Washington, President Joe Biden's administration is weighing adjustments to the sanctions — including a restoration of crude-for-diesel swaps by non-US companies and more flexible operating terms for Chevron and US oil service companies — as a way to alleviate Venezuela's humanitarian plight, particularly in light of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Maduro and his inner circle "are trying to whitewash their image. But they have no credibility," a former senior PdV official close to the five men tells Argus.

One of the Venezuelan national oil industry's last veteran managers, Del Pino was hard-pressed to balance the need for extensive foreign investment with the government's nationalist inclinations.

Del Pino and Nelson Martinez, who also served as oil minister and PdV chief executive as well as head of PdV's US refining unit Citgo, were arrested in pre-dawn raids in November 2017. Martinez died in custody just over a year later.

The other men that the 10th court of control in Caracas ordered to trial are former PdV western division manager Gustavo Malave, former PdV joint venture subsidiary CVP president Orlando Chacin and western division security chiefs Henry Sanchez and Adolfo Torres.

The arrests of the five men took place during a widespread industry purge of alleged corruption inside the industry, but subsequent investigations never came to fruition. Their defenders say Maduro sought to scapegoat them for the industry's steep deterioration, as illustrated by tumbling oil production and the breakdown of nearly all of PdV's refining capacity.

Citgo-6

The imminent trials, albeit lacking in credibility, have sparked speculation that Maduro could release six former Citgo executives who were lured back to Caracas from Houston in late 2017 and subsequently arrested.

Last November, a Venezuelan judge convicted them of corruption. An appeal is pending.

Five of the six convicted executives — known as the Citgo-6 — are naturalized US citizens, including former board members and vice presidents Tomeu Vadell, Gustavo Cardenas, Jorge Toledo, and brothers Jose Luis and Alirio Zambrano. The sixth, former Citgo acting president Jose Pereira, is a permanent US resident.

Vadell's daughter Veronica Vadell Weggemen reiterated her father's innocence and told Argus the family is "hoping for a gesture of good faith."

Last week, the Citgo-6 families participated in a global call with new US secretary of state Tony Blinken on US detainees abroad.

Since early 2019, Citgo has been controlled by Venezuela's US-backed political opposition, effectively severing ties with its parent company in Caracas.


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15/10/24

IEA points to oil stocks in case of supply disruption

IEA points to oil stocks in case of supply disruption

London, 15 October (Argus) — The world can draw on global oil stocks and rely on Opec+ spare production capacity in case of a supply disruption erupting from the conflict between Iran and Israel, the IEA said today. In its latest Oil Market Report , the Paris-based watchdog said it was "ready to act if necessary." It said IEA public stocks alone stood at over 1.2bn bl in addition to 500mn bl held under industry obligations. The IEA also said non-member China held 1.1bn bl of crude stocks, enough to meet 75 days of domestic refinery runs. The IEA co-ordinated two emergency stock releases in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. The world's reliance on stocks would become more pronounced if any supply disruption extended beyond Iran's oil industry to include flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This would threaten most Opec+ spare production capacity of more than 5mn b/d as members such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE are highly reliant on the waterway to export their oil. But as long as supply keeps flowing, the IEA said that the market faces a "sizeable surplus" next year. The agency's latest balances show a supply surplus of 1.11mn b/d in 2025, up by 50,000 b/d compared with its estimates last month. For this year, the agency now sees a slight surplus of 90,000 b/d, compared with a slight deficit last month. In the final quarter of this year, the IEA sees a surplus of around 200,000 b/d. Concerns over the strength of oil demand have been rising in recent months, with the IEA once again trimming its oil consumption forecast for this year. The IEA cut its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by another 40,000 b/d this month to 860,000 b/d, with China once again the main driver. A slowdown in China's economy remains the key drag on oil consumption growth. The IEA sees China's oil demand this year increasing by 150,000 b/d compared with 180,000 b/d in its report last month. At the start of the year the agency was guiding for growth of 710,000 b/d from China. The IEA also downgraded its estimated growth from China for next year to 220,000 b/d from 260,000 b/d last month, despite the country's recently announced stimulus packages. For next year, the agency sees oil demand growth slightly higher at 1mn b/d, up by 40,000 b/d from last month's report. But growth for both 2024 and 2025 is set to remain well below 2023's post-pandemic surge in growth of just under 2mn b/d. On global supply, the IEA kept its growth estimate broadly unchanged at 660,000 b/d. But it expects global growth to be just above 2mn b/d next year even if all Opec+ cuts are maintained. Some members of Opec+ are due to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts starting in December — although this is dependent on market conditions. The IEA said that the 500,000 b/d fall in Opec+ crude production in September — led by Libya — could make it easier for the alliance to implement its plan to raise output, although healthy non-Opec+ supply growth next year will remain a concern. The agency said global observed oil stocks declined by 22.3mn bl in August, led by a 16.5mn bl draw on crude. It also said preliminary data showed stocks fell further in September. By Aydin Calik Global oil supply/demand balance mn b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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California passes minimum gasoline reserve bill


14/10/24
News
14/10/24

California passes minimum gasoline reserve bill

Houston, 14 October (Argus) — California governor Gavin Newsom (D) on Monday signed AB X2-1 into law, authorizing the state's energy regulator to require refiners to maintain minimum gasoline inventories. The bill is the latest in a multi-year legislative effort by Newsom to mitigate price spikes at the pump and authorizes the California Energy Commission (CEC) to regulate, develop and impose requirements for in-state refiners to maintain minimum stocks of gasoline and gasoline blending components. The CEC would have the authority to penalize refiners who fail to comply. A minimum road fuels inventory requirement is unprecedented in the US but has been implemented in various forms in Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines and Mexico. While the bill was signed into law Monday, no mandate on refiners is imminent as the CEC will now begin the process of assessing how to structure and implement a minimum reserve rule. Industry group Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA) that has long opposed Newsom's regulation of the oil and gas industry called AB X2-1 a "smokescreen" for impending higher gasoline taxes in California and have previously deemed the minimum stock requirement a misdiagnosis of a broader problem. "You couldn't pay me enough to regurgitate the talking points of WSPA," Newsom said in a press conference today and referred to the industry group and the oil industry at large as the "polluted heart of the climate crisis". By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Guyana crudes pressured by end of Libya blockade, TMX


14/10/24
News
14/10/24

Guyana crudes pressured by end of Libya blockade, TMX

Houston, 14 October (Argus) — The restoration of Libyan crude production and an influx of heavy-sour Canadian grades to the US west coast has pressured light sweet Guyana crudes to their widest differential against Argus North Sea Dated since the assessments launched in February. Values for Guyana crudes Liza, Unity Gold and Payara Gold fell by 20-80¢/bl last week as offer levels fell swiftly. Liza reached a $1.20/bl discount against North Sea Dated, Unity Gold fell to a 35¢/bl discount and Payara Gold a 33¢/bl discount. Liza and Unity Gold fell to their lowest value since Argus began to assess the grades, while Payara Gold fell to its lowest level since mid-March. European refiners had turned toward Guyana after the 26 August start of the Libyan oil blockade , with imports rising by around 200,000 b/d to almost 456,000 b/d in September, according to data analytics firm Vortexa, reflecting the highest flows on that route since March. Libya has since recovered to more than 1mn b/d of production after the country's oil blockade ended on 3 October, according to data from state-owned oil company NOC published last week. Output in September was less than half of pre-blockade levels, with Libya's crude exports down to 460,000 b/d in that month compared with 1.02mn b/d in August, according to Kpler data. Projected October Guyana exports to Europe are 205,000 b/d lower than September at only 193,000 b/d, Vortexa data shows. TMX takeover Guyana prices also could be under pressure from added competition on the Americas Pacific coast from crude exported via the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline. In May, before the startup of TMX, Guyanese exports to the US totaled 68,000 b/d, data from Vortexa shows. Refiners did not purchase any Guyanese grades in June and August, and imports in July and September were more than halved from May levels at 32,000 b/d and 29,000 b/d, respectively. Vortexa estimates October deliveries will only amount to less than 29,000 b/d, a 57pc decrease since the start of TMX. TMX has quickly become a valuable crude source to US west coast refiners, displacing many Latin American grades in the process. Ecuadorean crude imports have trended lower since May, and were down by 30pc from June-September compared to a year earlier. Crude volumes arriving at Panama's PTP pipeline from Colombia — a common way US west coast refiners receive Colombian crude — have also trended lower since July. September crude receipts of Colombian grades into Panama have fallen from 173,000 b/d in July to 50,000 b/d in September. By Rachel McGuire and Joao Scheller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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High inventories dampen German heating oil demand


14/10/24
News
14/10/24

High inventories dampen German heating oil demand

Hamburg, 14 October (Argus) — Demand for heating oil in Germany fell last week as a result of high consumer stocks, contrary to sellers' expectations of continued buying. Private heating oil tanks were on average 61pc full on 10 October, an increase of almost two percentage points from the same time in 2023 and more than three percentage points from 2022, data from Argus MDX show. Consumers have in recent weeks been taking advantage of lower distillate prices to stock up on heating oil ahead of winter. Heating oil prices in September reached their lowest since June 2023. Although there was a sharp rise in prices at the start of October, sellers experienced another surge in demand. This was driven by consumers buying because of escalating tensions in the Middle East and a subsequent jump in Ice gasoil futures. But demand for heating oil fell significantly in the middle of last week, largely because consumers had stocked up sufficiently and no longer felt the need to buy at a premium. A logistical bottleneck for deliveries further reduced demand. Demand for imported diesel is also decreasing. An economic slowdown in Germany continues to suppress diesel demand. This trend could continue until at least the end of the year, federal government data show. Operators are able to run barges at full capacity. This, coupled with overall low demand, is leading to a fall in freight costs from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub into Germany. There is increased domestic supply in western Germany. A major supplier at Shell's 334,000 b/d Rhineland refinery resumed spot sales of heating oil and diesel last week, having halted them because of an unplanned unit shutdown. By Natalie Mueller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Permian producers face new headwinds


14/10/24
News
14/10/24

Permian producers face new headwinds

London, 14 October (Argus) — Growing associated gas production and rising breakeven prices for new oil wells are creating fresh challenges for Permian producers. Oil output in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico is growing more slowly than expected. The EIA revised down forecasts for 2024 Permian production in this month's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) following changes to historical output data. Permian production is now forecast to rise by 6.1pc this year and 3.6pc next, down from 7.8pc and 3.9pc, respectively, a month ago. Activity in the Permian oil and gas sector edged down in the third quarter, firms participating in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey say. Low Waha natural gas trading hub prices prompted about a third of 23 active exploration and production (E&P) firms to curtail production, and another third to either delay and defer drilling or well completions. Permian gas prices were negative — meaning that sellers pay buyers to take gas — for most of the six months before early September, as associated gas production exceeded pipeline capacity to move it to market. But Waha prices turned positive again last month as gas began to flow out of the region along the new Matterhorn Express pipeline. Deliveries on the 2.5bn cf/d (25bn m³/yr) Matterhorn pipeline have averaged about 600mn cf/d this month, Gelber & Associates analysts say. Flows are expected to ramp up to full capacity before the end of 2024, but robust associated gas production in the Permian remains a constant factor. The Permian basin now accounts for around a fifth of US natural gas production and is the fastest-growing source of new supply, as rising oil output adds increasing volumes of associated gas (see graph). The GOR — the average ratio of gas output ('000 cf) to oil production (bl) — in the Permian has increased from around 2 to over 3.5 since 2012, data from analysts Novi Labs show. The GOR for Permian wells typically rises during the life of a well. The GOR for Midland wells trebles from 1 to 3 after five years of production and nearly doubles for Delaware wells from just over 2 to just over 4. So the GOR inevitably rises as the share of legacy wells in overall output grows. Tiers for fears Firms are also using up the better drilling locations. Shale is not a uniform resource. Despite impressive advances in productivity over the past decade, rock quality remains the most important driver of well performance. Operators target high-quality (tier 1) wells first if they can, leaving lower-quality tier 2–4 wells for later, hoping that improvements in drilling and completion technology and efficiency will offset poorer yields. Less than two-fifths of the 25,000 drilling sites estimated to remain in the Midland basin offer a breakeven below $60/bl over a two-year period, according to a new assessment by Novi Labs using detailed rock quality data and incorporating the impact of infill well spacing patterns (see graph). Results reflect huge geologic variation within the basin and yield a weighted-average breakeven of $74/bl for the potential inventory of undrilled Midland wells. "Average tier 1 rock breaks even on average at $60/bl, but that number for tier 4 rises to $96/bl," Novi's Ted Cross says. For comparison, breakeven WTI prices for drilling a new oil well in the Midland basin ranged from $40-85/bl and averaged $62/bl, according to 87 E&P firms surveyed by the Dallas Fed in March (see graph). Over the past five years, average breakeven prices for new Midland oil wells from the Dallas Fed Energy Survey increased by a just over a third from $46/bl. In 2020, Midland breakeven prices ranged from $30-60/bl. Midland basin remaining well locations Permian oil and gas production Breakeven prices for new wells survey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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