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LNG cargo delays shrugged off as Suez traffic restarts

  • Spanish Market: Natural gas
  • 30/03/21

The restart of vessel traffic following the freeing of the ultra-large container ship Ever Given that ran aground in the Suez Canal on 23 March weighed further on Asian LNG prices, even though LNG vessels waiting to transit the critical waterway might still face delays in reaching their destinations.

Market participants have shrugged off the impact of potential delays to deliveries, expecting available spot supply availability for May to be sufficient to meet demand as more supply tenders for May cargoes have emerged.

Asian spot LNG prices posted two consecutive days of gains from 23 March following news of the canal blockage. But they eased from 25 March as more supplies emerged and European gas hub prices posted losses.

The front half-month of the ANEA price, the Argus assessment for spot deliveries to northeast Asia, rose by around 6.8pc to $7.055/mn Btu for second-half April on 25 March from $6.605/mn Btu on 23 March. But it has since dipped by around 2.1pc, standing at $6.905/mn Btu on 29 March.

There were expectations at the end of last week that it could take days or even weeks to dislodge the Ever Given, raising the prospect of delays to LNG loadings at export facilities in Qatar and the US and affecting deliveries to Europe and Asia, mainly in May. The Ever Given had been blocking the canal and holding up shipments since 23 March.

Around 14 LNG vessels are waiting to transit the Suez Canal in the southbound direction. Eight of these vessels belong to state-controlled Qatargas and are heading to the 77mn t/yr Ras Laffan facility, while the remainder, including one from the US Gulf Coast, are going to Asia, according to a shipbroker. A shipment in the southbound direction from the Suez Canal would head towards Asia and the Middle East. Around six northbound vessels - three ballast and three laden - are heading to Belgium, the UK, Italy and elsewhere in Europe. All three laden cargoes are from Ras Laffan.

Market participants expect it to still take between three and five days for traffic at both ends of the canal to clear, delaying deliveries.

Two Qatar-bound vessels had diverted away from the Suez Canal late last week and taken the longer Cape of Good Hope route to Ras Laffan when it remained unclear when the Ever Given would be dislodged and freed.

The 210,185m³ Al Bahiya and 210,184m³ Al Nuama LNG tankers were originally scheduled to arrive at Ras Laffan before 20 April via the Suez Canal route, before they made a sharp U-turn in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea on 26 March as vessel traffic waiting to transit the canal built up. The Al Bahiya and Al Nuama are now signalling arrival at Ras Laffan on 21 April and 23 April, respectively.

The diversion would potentially add around 13-18 days to each vessel's journey, meaning they could have been able to make it to Ras Laffan earlier had they stayed in the queue at the Suez Canal.

The 3-5-day wait to transit the Canal and diversions via the Cape of Good Hope are expected to push back loadings meant to take place at Ras Laffan between the end of March and early April to the second half of April and first half of May, which will mean that second-half April and first-half May deliveries to northeast Asia may be delayed to the second half of May or even June, market participants said. A shipment from Qatar to northeast Asia takes around 2-3 weeks.

But even with the likely delay of Qatari deliveries and strong consumer demand for May cargoes, spot supply availability to northeast Asia appears ample. Around 10 northeast Asian consumers are showing interest in buying May cargoes.

Spot supplies for delivery to northeast Asia are on offer through tenders from the 6.9mn t/yr PNG LNG project in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Australia's 8.9mn t/yr Ichthys LNG facility. And at least three other May cargoes are expected to be offered by producers in Australia and Russia in the near term.


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10/02/25

Natural gas industry hedges US-Canada tariff risk

Natural gas industry hedges US-Canada tariff risk

New York, 10 February (Argus) — North American natural gas producers and LNG importers are evaluating their exposure to impending tariffs on Canadian gas flowing into the US, including how they could benefit from uncertainty around the policy. Marketers responsible for managing gas supplies across the US-Canada border and at least one North American LNG importer are holding internal meetings to discuss risks and opportunities related to the potential tariffs, according to sources who asked to remain anonymous because they are not allowed to speak publicly. President Donald Trump on 3 February delayed 10pc tariffs on energy from Canada and Mexico by a month, a day before they were set to be imposed. One of the largest US gas producers is reviewing its supply contracts with Canadian customers to evaluate its exposure to possible retaliatory tariffs by Canada, a person with knowledge of the matter told Argus . The company is particularly concerned with its ability to achieve price certainty given a lack of clarity around which party would pay the tariff and how such a transaction might be audited by regulators, the person said. Some large US gas producers are also looking to exploit the so-called "uncertainty premium" by strategically timing when they hedge their output — ideally, when rhetoric and anxiety over tariffs mounts, so they can lock in higher prices, sources in the banking sector said. Internal meetings to discuss potential tariffs are also being held at US utility Constellation Energy, owner of the Everett LNG import terminal near Boston, Massachusetts, sources said. Tariffs could make Everett LNG more competitive by modestly raising New England pipeline gas prices, thereby making LNG imports more economical when the price for local pipeline capacity is high. Tariffs could also hurt demand for gas from the Saint John LNG import terminal in New Brunswick, Canada, owned by Spanish energy conglomerate Repsol, since most of Saint John's imported gas supplies are shipped via pipeline across the US border into New England. Constellation and Repsol did not respond to requests for comment. New England relies on gas imported from abroad by Everett LNG and Saint John LNG during particularly cold winter days because of insufficient pipeline capacity connecting the region to prolific gas fields in Pennsylvania and the surrounding states. Goldman Sachs estimates Trump's 10pc tariffs on Canadian energy products would reduce Canadian gas exports to the US by about 160mn cf/d (5mn m³/d), while investment bank RBC Capital Markets said the tariffs could cause "mildly higher US gas prices". By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador


10/02/25
10/02/25

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador

Quito, 10 February (Argus) — Ecuador will hold a second-round presidential election on 13 April after incumbent President Daniel Noboa had a closer-than-expected lead over his main challenger in Sunday's election, the electoral authority said. Noboa had 44.5pc of votes as of 11:30pm ET on Sunday, closely followed by Luisa Gonzalez, the candidate for the Citizens' Revolution party with 44.1pc, with 80pc of votes counted, the national electoral council (CNE) said. Ecuador's presidential election goes to a second round if the winning candidate does not have more than 50pc of votes or 40pc of votes with a 10-percentage point lead over the runner-up. Gonzalez' party was founded by exiled former president Rafael Correa, a close friend and supporter of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Correa guided taking on crude-backed loans from China during his term and oversaw a rewrite of the constitution, allowing him to serve for 10 years. Gonzalez in brief comments said she was optimistic about winning the second round, while Noboa did not speak publicly. This is the first time since 2006 that the candidate with Correa's party did not win at least the initial round of a presidential race. Pachacutik candidate Leonidas Iza was in third place with 4.8pc of votes. His party is the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (Conaie) that led an 18-day national strike in June 2022, cutting Ecuador's crude production by 17pc that month. The remaining 13 candidates obtained about 6.6pc of the valid votes. About 13.7mn Ecuadorians were required to appear at the polls. Voting is mandatory in the South American country, but only around 85pc actually voted. Ecuadorians also voted for 151 members of the national assembly. Gonazalez' party and Noboa's National Democratic Action party are forecast to win the biggest shares, but officials results will not be known for several days. By Alberto Araujo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump planning rollout of 'reciprocal' tariffs


07/02/25
07/02/25

Trump planning rollout of 'reciprocal' tariffs

Washington, 7 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump is considering announcing "mostly reciprocal tariffs" on an undisclosed number of countries early next week, in a possible shift from a campaign plan to impose universal tariffs of 10-20pc against all imports to the US. Trump did not provide specifics on the idea, but said he would probably have a meeting on 10 or 11 February before making an announcement. The potential rollout of the reciprocal tariffs appears likely to take place after China's planned 10 February date to start collecting a 10pc tariff on crude, coal and LNG from the US that Beijing imposed in response to a 10pc blanket tariff that Trump has placed on Chinese imports. "I think that's the only fair way to do it," Trump said of his plan to "probably" pursue reciprocal tariffs. "That way, nobody's hurt. They charge us, we charge them. It's the same thing. And I seem to be going in that line, as opposed to a flat fee tariff." Trump has said he views tariffs — which he says is his "favorite word" — as a virtually cost-free way to raise revenue that will cut the US trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing, without raising prices for goods in the US. But earlier this week, Trump delayed his plan to place an across-the-board 25pc tariff on Canada and Mexico just hours before it was set to take effect, as stock markets began to plunge on the threat of the start of a damaging trade war between the US and its two largest trading partners. The vast majority of economists say across-the-board tariffs are an inefficient way of raising revenue, with costs that would fall the hardest on low-income and middle-income US consumers already reeling from years of inflation. US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) on 2 February said kicking off a tariff war with Canada and Mexico "makes 100pc no sense" and would raise costs for US consumers. Trump discussed his reciprocal tariff idea today during a press conference with Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba. Trump said he wants to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan he estimates is $100bn/yr, primarily by selling the country US oil, LNG and ethanol. Trump said he also spoke with Ishiba about efforts related to the "pipeline in Alaska", an apparent reference to the proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG project, which is expected to cost more than $40bn and would require building a natural gas pipeline across Alaska. Ishiba said it was "wonderful" that Trump had lifted a temporary pause on LNG licensing on his first day in office, and said Japan was interested in purchasing US LNG, ethanol, ammonia and other resources as a way to cut down on the US trade deficit with Japan. "If we are able to buy those at a stable and reasonable price, I think it would be a wonderful situation," Ishiba said through a translator. Japan is keen to increase its overall investment in the US to $1 trillion, Ishiba said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariffs have ‘pluses and minuses’: ConocoPhillips


07/02/25
07/02/25

Tariffs have ‘pluses and minuses’: ConocoPhillips

New York, 7 February (Argus) — Threatened US tariffs targeting Canadian imports have both "pluses and minuses" for US independent producer ConocoPhillips which has production on both sides of the northern border. The company's primary exposure to tariffs would center upon sales from its Surmont oil sands operations in Alberta, Canada, into the US. "We sell around half of our Surmont liquids into the US on a mix of pipeline and rail," said Andy O'Brien, ConocoPhillips senior vice president for strategy, commercial, sustainability and technology. "But the remainder is actually transported to the Canadian West coast or sold in the local Alberta market." If tariffs were to be implemented, it is "pretty difficult" to say exactly who would carry the burden -- producers or buyers -- he added. "The refiners in the Midwest and the Rockies have less options to substitute versus, say, the Gulf coast or the west coast refiners," O'Brien said. The company's diversified portfolio would also help shelter it from some exposure. "If we were to see tariffs, we'd likely see strengthening differentials for Bakken, for [Alaska North Slope crude] and possibly even the Permian," said O'Brien. "So lots of moving parts." Like others in the oil industry, ConocoPhillips is looking at the potential to supply power to cater to the boom in AI data centers. "It's got to be competitive for capital, but it certainly looks like some growth opportunities potentially coming, and we're assessing some of those opportunities right now," chief executive officer Ryan Lance told analysts after posting fourth quarter results. Although the Trump administration has called on domestic producers to step up output, Lance said his priority was to drive further efficiencies in operations. "A lot of our focus and attention right now is on permitting reform," Lance said, and the need to build out energy infrastructure. Drilling approvals, rights of ways, and permits on federal land all slowed under the administration of former-president Joe Biden and there is an opportunity now to get back on track. "That just adds to the overall efficiency of the system and should lead to a more sustained plateau or growth in our production coming out of the Lower 48 in terms of liquids and certainly the growing amount of gas volumes that are coming as well," Lance said. "So it just creates a better environment for investment and more efficient operations." Full-year 2025 output at ConocoPhillips is seen in the range of 2.34mn-2.38mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), which includes 20,000 boe/d of planned turnarounds. Fourth quarter 2024 profit fell to $2.3bn from $3bn in the final three months of 2023, as higher volumes were more than offset by acquisition-related expenses and lower prices. Averaged realized prices fell 10pc to $52.37/boe from the fourth quarter of 2023. Fourth quarter output of 2.18mn boe/d represented an increase of 281,000 boe/d from the same quarter of the previous year. After adjusting for acquisitions and dispositions, output grew by 6pc. As part of a $2bn divestment goal, ConocoPhillips has signed agreements to sell non-core Lower 48 assets for $600mn. They are expected to close in the first half of the year. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Crude Summit: US to remain top crude producer


06/02/25
06/02/25

Crude Summit: US to remain top crude producer

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — The US is likely to remain the world's top crude producer for some time to come, according to shale executives at the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas, today. "In the foreseeable future, I don't really see a lot of change," said Shannon Flowers, director of crude and water marketing at Coterra Energy. There is still enough high-quality acreage to go after, while efficiency gains around faster drilling times and targeting longer wells are also helping to drive output gains. "There's a lot of creativity that goes on in trying to understand how we can do more with less," Flowers said today at the event. While the rig count is down 20pc over the last two years, production has grown by more than 1mn b/d. "Doing more with less is kind of a common theme," Flowers said in reference to operations at Coterra and across the industry. "I expect that to continue." While the Permian has dominated all the attention of late, the offshore Gulf of Mexico is likely to be an important driver of output going forward, with several projects starting up this year. Other regions such as the Rockies, Wyoming and possibly Utah could also see some growth. A recent round of mergers and acquisitions that saw $300bn of upstream oil and gas deals inked has further to run, says John Argo, vice president for the Williston Basin at Continental Resources. "There will continue to be more consolidation," Argo said. Scarcity with regard to remaining high-quality acreage means that valuations will continue to climb, he said. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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